Archive for the 'Newsweek' Category

McCain’s Base Problem

John McCain has been the nominee of his party for over a month now. He has no active opposition, no figure on his side of the aisle contesting him for leadership of the Republican party and the conservative movement.

jesus camp

And yet, Republicans are still voting against him. In Indiana McCain pulled in 77% of the vote, and he made an even worse showing with 73% in North Carolina. Even more troubling for McCain is that Huckabee is the leading protest vote. That’s the religious right vote, the anti-choice crowd and the bedrock of President Bush’s re-election victory.

In 2004 the GOP got the vote out by riling up the religious right and wooing the moderate middle. Post-Katrina and post-Iraq they have lost the middle. The press image of McCain as a maverick helps them with the middle, but they’ve still lost it. The religious right is mostly disgusted with the GOP - they haven’t kept up their end of the bargain. The religious right lined up behind the GOP to ban abortion, negate gay rights, and violate the separation of church and state. In exchange for that, the religious right was okay with allowing the business class to take their pound of flesh. But the GOP had the House, Senate, and White House and while they did enough at the edges of those issues they did not remake America into a theocracy.

John McCain does not inspire these people. Ambivalent at best about his faith, he is not the “God warrior” Bush pretends to be. He is very much the Bob Dole candidate. McCain is the “his turn” guy and in Obama he is going up against the first Democratic candidate in a long while who has the base of voters who are really for their guy.

The religious right is not going to move Democratic, but like in 2006 they are probably going to stay home while the Democratic base is poised to make the turnout in 2004 seem like training camp. The religious right’s relationship with the GOP isn’t just yet a divorce, but Mommy and Daddy are for sure on a break.

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Final Countdown

Obama wins North Carolina by a healthy margin (the networks called it as soon as the polls closed, so that ought to be a safe bet), which at the end of the day even with a Clinton win in Indiana (likely, though not called yet) leads to the same story we had yesterday: Barack Obama has more delegates, more votes, and will be the Democratic nominee.

It’s like I need a macro for that instead of writing it out again and again.

The Clinton campaign is kind of like the kid who gets a ribbon for participation and thinks it entitles them to go to the state championship.

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Indiana/North Carolina Prediction

North Carolina: Obama by 9
Indiana: Clinton by 5

I have a feeling that the momentum is turning back in Obama’s favor after a few good weeks for Clinton.

There is still no scenario beyond the destruction of the Democratic party that leads to a Clinton nomination.

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John McCain Calls Himself “President McCain”

In his new ad about his Bush-style no care health care “plan”, John McCain identifies himself on screen as “President McCain”. I guess we just decided to call of the election and have George Bush designate his successor just like that?

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Hillary Clinton Wishes She Were A Republican

Hillary Clinton

Well, she already acts like one, so at least she finally said it.

Clinton called her base of support “broader and deeper” than Obama’s, and said, “At the end of the day, that’s what it should be about for Democrats. You know, it is who can better win. And I’ve won the big states. I’ve won the states that we have to anchor. If we had the Republican rules, I would already be the nominee.”

Ah, but you see Senator Clinton, you made the mistake of running for the nomination of the Democratic party.

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John McCain’s Out Of Touch Health Care Plan: Pray

In case you were wondering that in the midst of all the drama on the Democratic side of the aisle it was possible for the Republican party to remain brain dead on the seminal issues of our time… wonder no more.

Doctor

Sen. John McCain on Tuesday rejected calls by his Democratic opponents for universal health coverage, instead offering a market-based solution with an approach similar to a proposal put forth by President Bush last year.

McCain’s belief in the power of the free market to meet the nation’s health-care needs sets up a stark choice for voters this fall in terms of the care they could receive, the role the government would play and the importance they place on the issue.

The Republicans largely really believe some of this bull about the free market. They really think in their heart of hearts that the solution for every issue is to sprinkle some of that magical “free market” fairy dust and all will be well. The problem is, that is not what Americans feel. Oh sure, we’re willing to give the market a go of things - and for some things it works great. But we effectively operate under a free market health care system right now and its woefully unpopular. That’s the reason why health care is a serious issue in 2008 in a way that it wasn’t in 2004, 2000, etc.

John McCain is so out of touch with normal Americans (his health care costs are covered by his military disability, his Senate health care plan and should anything fall through the cracks his wife’s generous inheritance can take up the slack) that he believes that what people want is more of the current mess.

Yet the American mood on large national issues like this is not a faith based free market system, but rather historically tends to favor a collective system where we all pay in and benefit.

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Obama Finally Says It, Flag Pin Falsehood Edition

Distractions on Notice

Since I’ve been following politics closely and especially since I moved back to the DC area to work in the industry (more or less), one of the things I have never understood has been the liberal/Democratic reluctance to call something a lie. When Al Franken wrote his book Lies And The Lying Liars Who Tell Them, I am certain that the forthright way in which he called out something as a lie was a pivotal element of its success. In 2000, and especially 2004, Al Gore and John Kerry drove me batty with their constant rhetoric that something was “a falsehood” or that someone “misled”. They just never came out and said George Bush and the Republican party and the conservative noise machine were just filthy liars.

So I’m mighty happy to read this quote from Sen. Obama in the course of discussing the phony flag pin flap pushed by the right wing.

Obama continued, saying “so I make this comment. suddenly a bunch of these, you know, TV commentators and bloggers (say) ‘Obama is disrespecting people who wear flag pins.’ Well, that’s just not true. Also, another way of saying it is, it’s a lie.”

It seems like such a small thing, but I’m so happy he said it.

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The McCain Show

McCain

Get ready to watch The McCain Show this election season. The McCain show is John McCain making great show about being against his party’s racist impulses while at the same time benefitting from them and not demonstrating the leadership to keep the party in line.

Howard Dean: “This is a test of leadership for John McCain. If he can’t pick up the phone and make members of his own party stop airing a television ad he claims to oppose, how can he lead our country through an economic crisis or the war in Iraq? After shifting his positions on gun control, immigration and tax cuts throughout this campaign, McCain should not equivocate on this issue. Making a show of releasing your emails to the press is not leadership. If he is serious, he will get this ad pulled.”

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McCain’s Huckabee/Paul Problem

He’s the nominee, but with the religious cons and the libertarian cons he doesn’t seem to have closed the deal.

Mr. McCain won every county in Pennsylvania in the Republican primary Tuesday — yes, the Republicans had a nominating contest there, too — but former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (who dropped out of the race in March) and Representative Ron Paul of Texas did surprisingly well in some of its most conservative counties.

Overall, according to The Associated Press’s count, Mr. Paul took 15.9 percent in the Pennsylvania G.O.P. primary, with 11.3 percent of Republicans voting for Mr. Huckabee.

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GOP Bigot Eruption: McCain Again “Fights” His Party’s Racist Impulses

The North Carolina Republican party is up on the air with an ad trying to paint Sen. Obama as a radical black nationalist and McCain writes a letter to try and get them to pull it back.

Maybe I’m too cynical, but I think the McCain camp’s real beef is that its too soon to go to the black nationalist well. They’d prefer to see these things in October and then “condemn” them in barely heard whispers.

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Selection Bounce Coming

McCain is at something of a wall at 45%, while the likely Democratic nominee (Sen. Obama) is almost sure to get a bounce over being the consolidated nominee for his party.

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That Darn Obama Is So Obsessed With… Doing What He’s Supposed To?

Obama

There’s a pretty silly blog entry by Noam Scheiber of The New Republic asking if Sen. Obama is too obsessed with winning delegates as opposed to racking up popular vote totals and the like. But it is the Clinton campaign who, depending on the day of the week and the hour of the day, has tried (badly) to come up with alternative metrics for winning the party’s nomination.

Since time immemorial it has been about delegates. Win the delegates, win the nomination. That was the Obama plan from the get-go and they’ve executed it superbly. Sen. Clinton, on the other hand, has sought to disqualify caucuses, the votes of non-swing states, the votes of red states, as well as the votes of smaller states in order to spin her losing campaign into a winning one. They’ve also been pushing the popular vote line as well as the electoral vote whopper. Look, perhaps if they get to change the party rules those things will be modified and straightened out.

But here, in the 21st century, in the year 2008, the only number that truly matters is how many delegates you’ve won.

As we used to say when I was younger (aka five minutes ago): Scoreboard.

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Swing, Swing

Yeah, these polls are stupid. I really don’t believe that in 7 days Sen. Obama went from +10 to -1 to +7. Public opinion simply does not swing that quickly unless something dramatic happens - that is a candidate reveals they were the second gunman on the grassy knoll dramatic.

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Plight Of The Black Cons

Obama in Selma

In all likelihood, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president. He will be the first black man in history with a legitimate, decent shot at being the leader of the free world. His candidacy will cause turnout among black Americans to go off the charts and more blacks - in raw numbers and in percentages - will vote than ever before in American history (we’ve seen the early rumblings of this in the primary process, but I think that America at large just has no idea how strong this thing will be in a general election).

In an environment like that, where the vast majority of blacks engaged in politics are moving forward you have a miniscule few who for whatever the reason (I tend to think its for them to adopt a contrarian pose) will vote Republican. As a result, they are outliers within their own race and essentially position themselves against the tide of black history. The tried and true response of black conservatives is to look at themselves as some kind of hero or martyrs. The larger conservative movement, unable to attract a sizable percentage of black votes, trumpets these kinds of stories again and again. Like this blog post from the hard-right Human Events:

Blacks who will vote for McCain this fall are some of the most courageous people on the planet, because of the extreme social scorn they will face from their left-wing black counterparts.

It takes courage to challenge the dominant social order. It took courage for Elia Kazan to battle pro-Communist sentiment in the 1950s. It took courage for Martin Luther King to fight Jim Crow in the 1960s. It took courage for Ronald Reagan to confront institutionalized liberalism in the 1980s. Likewise, it will take courage for black Republicans like [Michael] Steele to combat “Obama-ism” in the late-2000s.

Of course, a black person supporting McCain is not courageous at all. If you want to truly compare it to the 1960s its the equivalent of seeing Bull Connor sic dogs on people and saying “Hey guys, let’s cool it on all this civil rights stuff, we may upset some people.”

The funny thing is, its not even a conservative vs liberal thing. On a whole, black Americans are far more conservative socially than your average Democrat. The story the media refuses to cover beyond spectacle is the churchgoing socially conservative socially active black Americans that are the bedrock of the Democratic party. The problem for the press and the right is that those same socially conservative voters are by and large economic moderates to liberals. They don’t think that they should be distracted by politician’s latest song and dance on a social issue they’ll drop like a hot potato the day after they’re elected (ie George W. Bush and gay marriage) but instead they think that sane economics helps lead to cures for social ills (tax cuts for Paris Hilton don’t help teen pregnancy rates, but perhaps better funding for education does).

On paper, many of these voters should be Republican voters, and the few who are are overrepresented in the media (CNN seems to have a neverending supply of black conservatives) and for their contrarianism are paid handsomely. While they collect this money for espousing a minority of a minority opinion they treat any and all backlash as a sign of superiority. They see themselves as martyrs, but the only thing they do is prop up policies hurting black America that the vast majority of black America has rejected.

Neither side of the idealogical divide has an awesome record on racial issues, but only on the left would it even be plausible for a black candidate to be a presidential contender. Only on the left are their elected leaders at the federal level who are black. There is a reason for that, a reason why the party of the southern strategy and Macaca makes blacks sick to the stomach.

And a reason why black conservatives who help to prop up barriers to progress aren’t martyrs but fools.

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McCain: Economic Problems In America Are “Psychological”

This guy just doesn’t get it. In an interview with Fox News’ Neil Cavuto, John McCain told him that America’s economic problems are “psychological” and just a little of his patent-pending straight talk would do wonders for the Republican Recession.

That’s right folks, McCain thinks the cure to our economic woes are the bad jokes and patter he shares with his base in the media.

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Hillary Clinton’s Two Faced Attack On MoveOn

She’s standing on a platform of Jello. Via MSNBC’s Verdict with Dan Abrams here is Sen. Clinton slamming MoveOn (and by extension everyone who’s ever had the desire to be a progressive/Democratic activist) and here is Sen. Clinton just a year ago saying what great work she thinks MoveOn has done. This of course is part of her ongoing argument versus caucusing because she does badly there, but it also shows us - like with her vote in favor of the Iraq War - how quickly she would have thrown the progressive base of the party under the bus had she been the nominee.

Luckily, we dodged the bullet.

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Barack Obama Did Not Give The Finger To Anyone

They won’t believe it (and by “they” I mean the disgraceful Andrew Malcolm in the LA Times who has added oil to this right-wing fire) but Liz has the info for your lying eyes.

But then, Puff Daddy can tell you that the LA Times doesn’t exactly have such a great record on truth-telling nowadays.

>> MSNBC, FoxNews.com flip out over purported “flip-off”

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Thud.

I think it’s safe to say now that the “bitter” controversy, such as it is, is a big nothingburger for Sen. Clinton. The story has played out in the wall of sound known as cable news for almost a week now, yet the polls just haven’t moved.

Nationally, Sen. Obama’s lead over Sen. Clinton remains in the double digits. Gallup shows it 51-40%, while ABC/Washington Post shows that Obama crushes Clinton on electability 62-31%.

Within Pennsylvania, Sen. Clinton still has a good lead - probably in the double digits - but there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that the slam has done Sen. Obama any harm. In fact, there’s probably more evidence that Sen. Clinton’s already high negatives have gone higher as she commits to her decision to sabotage the Democratic primary.

One of the side effects of the Clinton kitchen sink strategy is that it serves as a preview of what to expect this fall from McCain, the RNC, and Republican 527s. They will go much further than Clinton has (which is hard to believe, but they will) but it’s satisfying to see that after all this Sen. Obama remains in the lead, ahead of his opponent, and an almost certain lock for victory.

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Did President Clinton Forget To Cross His Own Bridge To The 21st Century?

It’s kind of amusing and a little sad that a great president who based his entire political fortunes on being youthful and forward looking is now citing the one remaining voting bloc not in the Obama camp - older voters - as evidence of a problem with Sen. Obama. I would of course counter that Sen. Clinton’s weakness with this demographic known as “voters” is a big part of why she is losing the nomination.

And the last time I checked “voters” are the new “soccer moms”.

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GOP Bigot Eruption: Rep. Geoff Davis Calls Sen. Obama A “Boy”

GOP Congressman Geoff Davis Called Barack Obama A BoyThey won’t contain themselves. No matter how much John McCain asks his party and fellow conservatives to tone down the racial rhetoric, they will not be able to stop themselves. The idea of a black man beating their Republican candidate for the presidency will be too much to bear for the party of the Southern Strategy.

This summer the GOP Bigot Eruptions are going to go nuclear.

Cue the knuckle-dragging Geoff Davis:

Congressman Geoff Davis, took the criticisms of Mr. Obama a few steps further, likening the change slogan to the pitch of a “snake oil salesman.” He then relayed to the audience that he had taken party in a “highly classified, national security simulation” with Obama.

“I’m going to tell you something: That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button,” Mr. Davis said. “He could not make a decision in that simulation that related to a nuclear threat to this country.”

Once the “boy” remarks began to circulate on the Internet, the Obama campaign moved swiftly to criticize them. “It’s hard to tell what is more outrageous - Representative Davis’s condescending and personal attack, or his absurd and offensive claim that Barack Obama is not prepared to defend America. Geoff Davis may hide behind offensive tough talk, but he has marched in lock-step with Bush-McCain policies that have devastated our national security, while Barack Obama has stood up against a misguided war in Iraq and worked with respected Republicans like Dick Lugar and Chuck Hagel to secure loose weapons and nuclear materials from terrorists,” Bill Burton, the campaign spokesman said.

Davis later issued an “apology” but it’s a load of crap. He said what was in his heart and in the hearts of many on the right.

Embrace the racist inside, Republicans!

MORE: Pam Spaulding has more.

UPDATE: If you want to know why this sort of thing is going to be an ongoing problem for McCain and the GOP as Obama moves up to officially become the nominee look no further than the comments on conservative blogs QandO and Rick Moran. Both McQ and Moran know that this is really really stupid but at least one of their commenters simply cannot see the problem with calling a grown ass black professional man, let alone one as accomplished as Sen. Obama, a “boy”. They simply chalk it up to “political correctness”.

What’s next? Some con calls Obama a n****r and they shrug their shoulders and say “What’s the big deal?” I wouldn’t bet against it.

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A Question For Sen. Clinton On San Francisco

At Sunday night’s Compassion Forum, when asked about the whole “bitter” episode, Sen. Clinton said the following:

“Someone goes to a closed door fundraiser in San Francisco and makes comments that do seem elitist, out of touch, and frankly patronizing.”

Senator Clinton, what’s wrong with San Francisco? For years you have raised money there, as did President Clinton. The current Speaker of the House, a Democrat, is from San Francisco. Republicans have traditionally made much ado about San Francisco’s liberalism. Have you joined them?

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Clinton Waves The Bitter Flag, Gets Blowback

Sen. Clinton decided she would follow in the footsteps of the right-wing attack on Sen. Obama and came out in the last couple of days talking about how she shot guns (”varmint” hunting with Mitt Romney, perhaps?) and went to church. So, then somebody asked her about the details.

EJECT! EJECT! EJECT!

After a weekend spent making direct appeals to gun owners and church goers, Hillary Clinton said Sunday a query about the last time she fired a gun or attended church services “is not a relevant question in this debate” over Barack Obama’s recent comments on small town Americans.

“We can answer that some other time,” Clinton said at a press conference held in a working class neighborhood here. “This is about what people feel is being said about them. I went to church on Easter. I mean, so?”

This is exactly what happens when you flail without thinking. You make an attack that exposes your soft underbelly and you end up catching flak as well. In a strange way the Clintons are once again showing the folly of that ’60s mantra: If it feels good… do it. No matter the consequence. That strategy has been the hallmark of Sen. Clinton’s failed quest for the nomination and it would be the epitaph written on a failed general election campaign.

Thankfully the voters had a say in this and we aren’t subject to the whims of the mainstream media and Penn/Wolfson/Etc.

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Kamikaze McClinton

kamikazeHillary Clinton and her surrogates sure feel a strong need to echo right-wing attacks versus Sen. Obama. And that’s fine with me. At the end of the day this will teach us that no matter what the Clintons cannot be trusted anywhere near the leadership of the Democratic party in the future. At the same time it also shows us the problems we would have encountered should she have won the nomination. Reacting like a scared ninny to the prospect of Republicans saying bad things about you has been a recipe for Democratic failure for almost half of my life. The Clinton response turns out to be just to echo the right wing without doing anything constructive about it and hope the media gets bored, while the Dean/Obama posture is to return fire until their ships are in Davy Jones’ Locker.

The former strategy does its job in saving the Clinton’s hides while damaging the Democratic party, while the latter defends the candidate and changes the progressive/Democrat brand from one of weak-kneed fainting back to its historical strength of moral character.

So thanks, Sen. Clinton, this has all been helpful in clarifying some things and allowing the scales to fall from our eyes.

From a practical matter no matter what the hyperventilating conservatives and their increasingly similar pro-Clinton partisans wish to believe: Sen. Obama is winning, will win the nomination (assuming likely Clinton-initiated fraud will be nipped in the bud) and will likely win the general election. But we play. We play to win the game.

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Q: Why is Hillary Clinton losing the Democratic nomination?

A: Because of headlines like this one: “Opponents Call Obama ‘Out of Touch’” When you and the conservative Republican nominee regularly line up on the same side rhetorically, it’s a sign that you may not be the one the Democratic party is looking for.

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And If I Was Six Inches Taller, Had Abs Of Steel And Looked Like Denzel Washington I Would Be Jessica Alba’s Baby Daddy. But I’m Not.

Hillary Clinton - Calvin & HobbesThe pro-Clinton blogs are flogging yet another “How about THIS!!!???” idea designed to present yet another laughable justification for Sen. Clinton to be awarded the nomination she is losing. You may remember it by its more formal name from when you were a small child: Let’s pretend.

Obama’s advantage hinges on a system that, whatever the actual intentions behind it, seems custom-made to hobble Democratic chances in the fall. It depends on ignoring one of the central principles of American electoral politics, one that will be operative on a state-by-state basis this November, which is that the winner takes all. If the Democrats ran their nominating process the way we run our general elections, Sen. Hillary Clinton would have a commanding lead in the delegate count, one that will only grow more commanding after the next round of primaries, and all questions about which of the two Democratic contenders is more electable would be moot.

It should come as no surprise that the piece is written by Sean Wilentz who while supposedly a historian should probably be described as a quasi-official flack for the Clinton campaign.

But the heart of the theory being pushed here is equally stupid. If Senator Clinton wished to run for the nomination of a party with a winner-take-all nomination process, she would be well within her legal rights to do so - she simply needed to have changed her party affiliation to Republican. Like it or not the Democratic party’s process is a proportional affair along with superdelegates. That is how it is. Nobody forced Sen. Clinton to design her campaign for a Super Tuesday splash where she would have the nomination wrapped up for the anointed one by early February. She has name recognition on par with Jesus and a campaign war chest ranking among the largest in history. Yet just like the sort of thinking we have come to identify with the Bush administration she failed to reconcile her fanciful plans with the facts on the ground. The Obama folks didn’t rely on stovepiped intelligence delivered to them by a sympathetic lackey, instead they read the intelligence reports and made the right decision.

Sen. Clinton should try that sometime before her career in public life is up.

Instead they are reduced to counting the amount of angels that can fit on the head of a pin. They come up with absurd scenarios to try and make their argument stick. It ranges from the idea of delegates not following the will of primary and caucus goers as they have since the nomination process began, to counting only states where Sen. Clinton won to counting only primary states and on and on. Yet Sen. Clinton did not express in any way her grave concerns over this nomination process when her husband won it in 1992 and 1996. When President Clinton won the Iowa caucus in 1996 we heard none of this discussion about how caucuses were not representative of the people’s will. Yet by her current standards (and they change from day to day depending on who is asking) President Clinton’s nomination was not legitimate. Heck, as late as a few months ago Sen. Clinton was more than willing to praise the entire process and abide by the DNC’s rulings against Florida and Michigan for their violation of party rules.

But then she saw it all slipping away and the entire nomination process became an unfair and untrustworthy thing whose rules should be changed when the process is 80% over in order to benefit her failure.

Senator, this is not Calvinball.

>> The glaring flaw in Sean Wilentz’s argument
>> Hillary Clinton a Victim of the System
>> Give It Up
>> If My Grandmother Had Wheels, Clinton Would be Winning
>> And if Hillary were Obama, she’d be winning
>> Wilentz Jumps the Shark

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