Like Kryptonite To Stupid
North Carolina: Obama by 9
Indiana: Clinton by 5
I have a feeling that the momentum is turning back in Obama’s favor after a few good weeks for Clinton.
There is still no scenario beyond the destruction of the Democratic party that leads to a Clinton nomination.
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I’m sticking with my Giligan’s Island, coconut to the head scenario.
It’s tried and true, truly vetted.
At least until Obama gets whacked in the head with another coconut in the same spot, thus reversing his amnesia.
“I have a feeling that the momentum is turning back in Obama’s favor after a few good weeks for Clinton.”
I want to believe in your feeling! After Wright and Ayers,
even par looks like up.
“There is still no scenario beyond the destruction of the Democratic party that leads to a Clinton nomination.”
That’s the best insight I’ve read. What sane superdelegate wants to alienate all those new voters, not to mention most of black America? Shredded party, anyone? Let Florida and Michigan secede–nothing Hillarybots could threaten would match that.
Only Obama’s cult followers and ObamEvangelists who look for Obama Rapture Indexes and “End Times” signs predict the “Destruction of the Democratic Party”.
The Democratic Party will be fine no matter which great candidate wins the nomination in Denver.
Settle down, ’stone.
“There is still no scenario beyond the destruction of the Democratic party that leads to a Clinton nomination.”
See? Sez right there.
The Democratic Party will be fine no matter which great candidate wins the nomination in Denver.
Of course, Wellstone thinks only one candidate is “great”.
Yeah.. In other words, only “The Destruction of the Democratic Party” can result in Clinton winning the nomination and Obama losing.
It came to him in a vision, with plagues of locusts and a rain of frogs!
I’m joking, of course, but all too often I read the same thing in comments and diaries from Obama’s followers and supporters: A Clinton nomination will fracture the Party beyond repair forever. A Clinton nomination when Obama is leading in pledged delegates and states won and popular vote totals will mean a Democratic Civil War.
Ollie himself has said here if Hillary’s nominated he will stay home in November, and I’ve read those same feelings over and over in many pro-Obama blogs like DailyKOS.
A Clinton nomination when Obama is leading in pledged delegates and states won and popular vote totals will mean a Democratic Civil War.
Are you even conscious of what you write? All of those criteria would make him the winner of this contest. Any other result would be evidence of….something other than fair play.
No, both candidates are great, and have produced fantastic excitement for months and real advances for the Democratic Party.
You only have to look at yesterday’s results in the LA Dist 6 Elections, where we won a district that is 10, solid Republican and forced the GOP to drop big bucks in a race that should never have even been in question.
I only happen to believe Hillary will make the better President, that’s all.
But you never say why.
Duros, Hillary is psychologically necessary for Wellstone. He likes big sticks and tough talk. He just wishes such things to emanate from the lips of his party’s candidate rather than George Bush.
NC: Obama by 8
IN: Clinton by 8
And the beat goes on.
Here’s my vision: Obama wins both.
P.S. But I’m a hopeful idealist.
For the sake of your sanity, ignore the fictitious media-driven “momentum” narrative. Keep your eye on the delegates, and especially on the fact that every time there’s a new wave of superdelegate endorsements Obama gets more of them. It’s over and has been for quite a while.
Here ya go, ’stone.
Obama Buys Cake For North Carolina Voters
Not quite the same as .0003 gallons of gas, but you gotta start somewhere.
Wellstone in various comments in only the last few days:
- “Obama’s cult followers”
- “ObamEvangelists who look for Obama Rapture Indexes”
- “[Hillary doesn’t] have the race card or the Rev Wright or the Rezko case or the Ayers issue or the patriotism card to worry about”
- [posits the hypothetical] “The Rezko trial turns up testimony that says that a certain Illinois State Senator took 20k in donation money from Rezko in exchange for kickbacks and swinging business deals his way”
- “NC, where the Obama campaign has been desperately trying to lower expectations” (emphasis added)
- “Remember the Obama campaign has pulled out all the stops in both states,” presented as a bad thing
Meanwhile…
- “she has dialed up her effort from top to bottom” is a good thing
- “Hillary’s been looking radiant… Obama looks like he could use a little Red Bull and some home cooking”
- “Hillary hit exactly the right note and smacked Stephanopoulos down as an elite pandering to elites.”
- “Like Hillary told Steph yesterday, “Where were you and your Economists when we were giving a $20 Billion bailout to Goldman Sachs?…” = “Home run.” [Goldman Sachs??]
But, hey, “both candidates are great”
With switches like that, maybe Wellstone really does support John McCain!
Kos explains why (apart from black turnout tanking, that is) she’d be a disaster against McCain:
Wellstone, do you think that black voters will show up to the polls if Obama leads in pledged delegates but then loses the nomination to Clinton due to the superdelegates breaking the other way? If not, do you think that the Dems can win the White House without the black vote?
Repeat those questions, but substitute “young voters” for “black voters.”
Predictions…
NC: Obama by 12
IN: Clinton by 8
I’ve been making calls to NC voters this evening. Plenty have already voted early for Obama, others were eager to get the address of their polling stations. I reached one Republican (oops, don’t know how she got on the list) but she was very gracious.
Obama ‘08
Prediction:
NC: Obama by 28%
IN: Clinton by 5.5%
“Only Obama’s cult followers and ObamEvangelists who look for Obama Rapture Indexes and ‘End Times’ signs predict the ‘Destruction of the Democratic Party’.”
The only way Clinton can win now is if she uses her clout to change the rules and reinstating all of Michigan and Florida’s delegates without penalty and without any consideration for the fact that Obama didn’t campaign in either state (and wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan). That would destroy the party.
Obama by 11 in North Carolina
Clinton by 6 in Indiana.
A group called Women’s Voices, Women Vote has made 182,236 anonymous robo calls in North Carolina on Apr 24 and 25 misleading voters to think they were not registered to vote. They advised the voters they would receive a voter registration form int the mail, to complete it and send it in, THEN they could vote.
The problem - the deadline to register by mail had already passed.
Worse - WVWV failed to tell voters that they cold register in person during NC’s early voting which started April 17 and ran through May 3.
Makes you wonder if WVWV really wanted to help voters.
Oh, did I mention that the complaints indicate that the calls target African Americans?
The NAACP has filed a formal complaint this week-end and also alerted the DOJ. Our Atty Gen has already declared the robo calls illegal because they were anonymous and also misleading.
See http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/ for frequent updates.
Change the rules? Steal the nomination?
Go and read them. The rules state, that if all candidates are too weak to emerge with an absolute majority of the delegates (which also means that they most probably didn’t got half of all the votes), they have no right to claim the nomination but instead have to rely on the convention and especially the unpledged delegates to decide.
Obama knew this from the start and obviously failed time after time “to close the deal” and get enough delegates through voting, so to wimmer now about “stealing” or anything else is just pathetic. He had a fair chance, he missed it so now he has to fight in front of the convention for it, as other Democrats before. Thats called politics.
Sad but, that people here just spite on the “one (wo)man, one vote” rationale and the possibility, that Clinton still may get more votes than Obama.
This ignorance and the interpretation of “rules” just in favor of the own position, even against their inherent goals is, euphemisticly spoken, unfair… or, as a famous Democrat would name it “so old washington”. The twists people take to reverse their statements after Al Gores defeat are rhetorical interesting but philosphical disgusting.
A bit more respect in language would also help much to keep harm from the democratic party, then there is no doubt: Whoever gets the nomination, the Dems will still have to fight the rightwingers in future and that will go better if they don’t call each other names.
Hillary will win the nomination by using the same magical powers she’ll use to break up OPEC and get producers to start pumping oil that isn’t actually there. There is nothing you can’t accomplish if you just ignore pointy-headed experts and their silly fixation on “reality”! That’s why the Bush administration has been such a roaring success. We need Hillary to carry on the good work!
TO answer Sean, and thank him for the meticulous research done on me:
Yes, I am for Hillary. Thank you.
That does not mean I don’t respect Obama or have any problem supporting his nomination. I was a raving Deaniac in ‘03, still support and admire Dr. Dean, but I fought and fussed in support of John Kerry against Dubya.
I find Mambo’s question more interesting:
1. Will Black voters go to the polls if Hillary wins the nomination even though she’s behind in pledged delegates because the Superdelegates voted her in?
Chris Rock said “Damn, I never even heard of “Superdelegates”. Until a Black man took the lead!”
I really hope they do. I will understand frustration and anger, I would feel the same way. I lived in NYC’s South Bronx and Spanish Harlem as a boy, I lived and fought the ghetto’s dynamics and grudges. But I hope they will consider the alternative: McCain in power and 4 more years of having a Republican instead of a President.
1A. Can the Democrats win the White House without a Black vote? Maybe. We can’t afford to lose anybody, young, Black, senior, Hispanic, women are all crucial parts of the Dem coalition. But the Black vote has not and will not affect states like MS, AL, GA, KY and many more. They are going to the GOP anyway. If Hispanics, especially younger Latinos register and vote Democrat in huge numbers, it may help worst-case losses among the Black electorate. In 2004, Bush claimed over 44% of the Hispanic vote. If we get half of those back, it will definitely have a positive impact, especially in the “New West”, CO, NV, NM, and maybe even AZ.
Joyce, that WWVW alarm is like a week late. It was already looked into and the organization was found to have made some mistakes, but was generally working in good faith to try and register voters.
Race card.
I USED to support Hillary; she was originally my second choice after Edwards dropped out. To paraphrase bad old Ronnie, I didn’t leave Hillary’s campaign; it left me. It has been the most destructive, disgusting, and downright insulting (to the intelligence of Democrats) national campaign I have ever seen from a so-called Democrat. The animal-rights folks ought to denounce her for jumping so many sharks; at this rate the shark population will soon be seriously endangered.
WOw Duros!!
Obama buys CAKE??
For a second there, I read Obama buys COKE for the voters, and I thought we had us some real news!!
Guess I read too much into the part in his book where he talks about using Blow as a teenager when he could afford it.
Here’s a discussion that says exactly what I’ve been saying, and is exactly on point:
http://www.mydd.com/:
Democratic strategist Ari Melbers’s appearance on MSNBC Sunday during an hour long Obama love-fest hosted by David Schuster was particularly dishonest about the situation:
“Senator Clinton is highly unlikely to make up the elected delegate metric, which is the key thing here, that’s the count from the people who’ve actually voted in these states…Even if she does her best, she’s going to be down in the Democratic count and there’s really no way she can legitimately win the nomination at this point.”
The central problem with this statement is the premise that superdelegates handing someone the nomination is inherently illegitimate when in truth, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will need superdelegates to win the nomination. As you can see from DemConWatch’s handy chart, there simply aren’t enough pledged delegates left to put either of them over the top.
Now, of course, in the mind of Melber and all proponents of the Obama inevitability campaign, the pledged delegate count is king, which means that if superdelegates hand it to Obama it’s OK, but if they hand it to Clinton it’s not. How convenient. The problem with this formulation though is that there’s absolutely no basis or precedent for the presumption that the superdelegates are bound to the pledged delegate leader. As Howard Dean himself has said of the superdelegates:
Their role is to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and of the Democratic Party. I am confident that they will carry out that duty responsibly and in accordance with the highest values of our democracy and our Party…”
4 more years of having a Republican instead of a President.
That’s pretty good.
Obama buys CAKE??
How can you say no to cake? AND he paid for it himself, AND he left a $10 tip.
Guess I read too much into the part in his book where he talks about using Blow as a teenager when he could afford it.
Ya. I guess you did. Nice try at deflecting.
I for one admire that he admits it. For years I’ve been waiting for a candidate to field the question “Did you ever use drugs?” with “Yup. Don’t do it now. So what?”
Now we have one. And I’m proud of it.
Now, of course, in the mind of Melber and all proponents of the Obama inevitability campaign, the pledged delegate count is king,
See, that’s funny, because last year the pledged delegate count was king for Clinton as well. Now not so much.
“I USED to support Hillary; she was originally my second choice after Edwards dropped out. To paraphrase bad old Ronnie, I didn’t leave Hillary’s campaign; it left me. It has been the most destructive, disgusting, and downright insulting (to the intelligence of Democrats) national campaign I have ever seen from a so-called Democrat.”
That’s exactly my feelings. Before the primaries started, I thought any of the three main candidates would be great choices for the Democrats. In fact, my dream ticket was Edwards / Obama, but when Edwards fell behind early I switched to Clinton / Richardson as my second choice. However, her campaign has not just been poorly run, but it has been destructive. If she was running a constructive campaign, then I would have no issue were her still campaigning.
I find it inconceivable that anyone would suggest that Clinton is more electable than Obama - not because I am an Obamabot, but simply because of the number of negatives that Hillary brings to the table. Many of these points have been brought up before, but I think they bear repeating.
1. Hillary’s major strength seems to be this idea that she can motivate the white base of the Democratic party better than Obama can. Since when has the white base of the Democratic party won the White House? Oh yea, Bill Clinton. That was two lifetimes ago in Presidential politics.
2. In this particular race, Hillary is running as a moderate Republican on the Democratic party ticket. People already believe that McCain is a moderate Republican, and a war hero to boot. Why would anyone vote for Hillary Clinton over McCain?
3. Meanwhile, the rabid base of the Republican party hates the Clintons with a passion.
4. She has at least as many weaknesses as Obama. Her negative issues - Whitewater, the Health Care task force, her husbands infidelity, Vince Foster - have been largely ignored during the primary season due to the media focus on Obama. I don’t believe for a second that these things will remain under the radar during the general election.
(let me add as an aside that all of these attacks are beneath contempt. But they will come.)
5. Like it or not, her campaign has disenchanted a good number of people who may have once considered voting for her. I happen to believe that Obama is the better candidate, but more than that I believe he will be a better president. Still, I may have once been willing to vote for Clinton. But I loathe the campaign that Clinton has been running since at least Super Tuesday, when her coronation was put into question. I’m not sure I can bring myself to vote for her in the fall. (And no, I won’t vote for McCain either. I haven’t heard a lot of Obama supporters saying they would, unlike some in the Clinton camp.)
I don’t believe that Clinton can beat McCain - and if she did, I’m not sure we wouldn’t be getting a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
All of Obama’s negatives come inevitably back to the question of the angry black man. In spite of this, I do think he can win. And if he can’t, if we’re really not ready in this country to have a black man as President, well then I’d rather it be decided out in the open in November, than have us give up at the outset and not even nominate him for fear of “what if…”
Wellstone: But I hope they will consider the alternative: McCain in power
Now that’s a strong argument for voting for Hillary: She’s less evil.
Wellstone: Guess I read too much into the part in his book where he talks about using Blow as a teenager when he could afford it.
Wellstone: That does not mean I don’t respect Obama or have any problem supporting his nomination.
Yes, it shows in nearly every mention you make of him.
I believe both of those things now, and strongly, but I believed neither of them at the time when Edwards dropped out and I had to find a new candidate. SHE, more than her opponent, has changed my mind, and a lot of other people’s minds. Her remaining supporters really need to come to grips with what that says about her campaign. “Electable” my ass- her nomination would hand McSame the election on a silver platter. She can’t go after him on almost any significant Democratic issue after me-tooing him slavishly throughout the primary campaign AND she would depress black turnout to a remarkable degree. The outcome wouldn’t even be close.
Wellstone: The central problem with this statement is the premise that superdelegates handing someone the nomination is inherently illegitimate when in truth, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will need superdelegates to win the nomination.
The central problem with your statement of the central premise is that it’s just wrong. It isn’t that having the supers decide the nominee is illegitimate. It’s that to give the nomination to Hillary the supers would have to vote counter to the way in which the people have.
The rules say they can do that, yes. Nobody is legitimately arguing that they can’t. The complaint is, doing so would go contrary to the popular vote (expressed will of the people), piss off a large segment of Dem voters and quite probably cause serious problems for the Dems in the general election.
I happen to believe that Obama is the better candidate, but more than that I believe he will be a better president.
Exactly. Who’s more electable than John McCain in November? Who the fuck cares? Who is going to be more effective in getting the job done.
The Big Picture.
Someone here has stopped thinkin’ about tomorrow.
Someone here has stopped thinkin’ about tomorrow.
You mean, they were at some point??!!!
I’ve seen mentions in several places that this is all playing out like the last season of The West Wing. (Democratics split between two candidates, a DC insider and an inspirational minority candidate. Repub candidate already chosen but he’s unpopular within his own party. The President near the end of his second term and busy with his daughter’s wedding.)
So how would The West Wing actually do it? Lawrence O’Donnell Jr., former West Wing writer-producer, has a scenario.
Best exchange:
Barack: Hillary, I care about two things exactly as much as you do: the party and getting the nomination.
Hillary: You mean you don’t give a shit about the party and you’d kill to get the nomination?
You mean, they were at some point??!!!
Bill Clinton’s campaign song. Fleetwod Mac.
You mean, they were at some point??!!!
Bill Clinton’s campaign song. Fleetwod Mac.
Ah. So that would be an example of that big-on-fancy-words,-short-on-actual-substance criticism Hillary keeps leveling at Obama.
Sean, you left out the punch line of that exchange.
Barack (smiles): You wearing a wire?
That was good stuff. I was waiting for the kicker: That Wes Clark had no meeting with Michelle.
So that would be an example of that big-on-fancy-words,-short-on-actual-substance criticism Hillary keeps leveling at Obama.
Exactly so.