The race between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama remains frozen in amber, with even an unlikely unprecedented string of lopsided victories between now and the end of the primary season unable to change the dominant dynamic: Senator Obama is the frontrunner. Both senators have motivated the base, energizing the party with unprecedented primary and caucus turnout. But now it must come to an end and a transition made to general election mode. Sen. McCain is his party’s nominee and is currently consolidating the conservative base. While I feel he still has little chance of winning the general election, we are at a moment in which the Democratic party can march to a historic victory - a repudiation of conservatism. The more the show of the primary season goes on, the less likely a major victory this fall (although even if the dang thing goes to the convention I still think the Dems will win).
The superdelegates have so far been content to sit on the sidelines and wait out the process, yet time is now of the essence. They need to vote their consciences now, reminded by Speaker Pelosi that they should take heed the will of the Democratic party’s voices in 44 states.
Barack Obama most importantly leads in delegates, leads in amount of states won. Sen. Clinton has run a strong campaign, but Sen. Obama’s has been stronger and that is why neither candidate can get to the nomination based solely on their primary/caucus performance. The superdelegates need to act. There are eight months until the general election. Eight months of voter mobilization, eight months of educating the voters about our nominee and the Republican nominee. Eight months of fundraising and coordination between the nominee and the national party to be done.
The Democratic party has a chance to not only elect a Democrat but to deal a severe blow to conservatism. The way to get there is for the superdelegates to act.
Vote now. Follow the people. Choose a nominee. Win the election.
Agreed.
Hey, Superdelegates. Come out for Obama now. If, as HRC fervently hopes, Obama massively screws things up in weeks to come, then there’s no contract that forces you to vote for him no matter what. Change your vote after he screws up — if that happens (not bloody likely).
But come out for the certain delegate and \popular vote winner now before Hillary makes any Democrat, including herself, an irrevocably unpalatable choice.
Stop this train wreck. You are the only people with the power to do that. It’ll be malpractice to let this continue.
Oliver,
I disagree that Hillary Clinton has run a strong campaign. She started with every conceivable advantage, and has made a mess of it.
Consider; she had $100 million in the bank before Obama got into the race, she had a very famous husband who is the most visible and influential Democrat in the Party, she had 96 superdelegates in her pocket, she had major name recognition after two terms as First Lady, and she had a compliant media that had practically handed her the nomination. Look where she stands now.
Further, the people she chose to run her campaign have been downright awful. They squandered their huge warchest, forcing Clinton to give herself an embarrasing $5 million loan. They came up with the ridiculous old DLC-style 13-state strategy that was supposed to slam-dunk the nomination by Super Tuesday; they squabbled incessantly and allowed it to leak to the media…
By what abyssmally low standard can we say that she has run a ’strong campaign?’ IMHO, the Clinton campaign will be studied in political science classrooms as an example of how to fail even when you’ve got a huge headstart.
1. Supers can’t vote now. They can’t vote until August. They can pledge now, but as some of Obama’s superdelegates have proven, their solemn word is meaningless.
2. Number of states won is also meaningless. Not an argument. Why not say that Obama won several countries thanks to the Democrats Abroad results?
3. Don’t want to count the popular vote at the end of this, huh?
4. If Nancy Pelosi is going to chair the convention, and Nancy Pelosi is one of the people who ends this thing early, thereby shutting up other people, it augurs poorly for the convention’s legitimacy.
5. Why now? We could have had ten months to do all those things you describe had we told everyone to shut up and obey the party on February 6th. Why now and not then…just because your boy is winning?
6. You’re calling on the machinery of the Democratic Party to declare this thing over before everyone has voted. It shouldn’t happen, no matter how much you want to hold a little Obama party. This bum’s rush could make sense in early June after we know the totals, but in mid-March it just looks like a hustle. Put on some March Madness and get some hobbies…the general election can wait for all the little people to vote.
Sabutai,
Have you seen the delegate math? Here’s link to a very thorough analysis of the numbers-
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/16/4538/35934/187/477813
There is no mathematical possibility for Clinton to win the nomination outright. Zip, zero. Thus, she can only win it if the superdelegates hand it to her in spite of Obama’s insurmountable lead.
So, if you are going to advocate for letting the process play itself all the way out until August, you had better be able to outline a scenario whereby Hillary could win without the Democratic Party blowing itself to bits. I have yet to see anyone face up to that question. If you have something in mind, I’d be curious to read it.
Thanks….
sabatui wrote “5. Why now? We could have had ten months to do all those things you describe had we told everyone to shut up and obey the party on February 6th. Why now and not then…just because your boy is winning?”
If they’d have counted delegates, states, popular vote on Feb 6, Obama would have won then, too.
If Clinton had the vote and delegate advantage that Obama has held for months, with no chance of being overtaken on delegates, I daresay that people like sabatui would have long ago called for him to step down and stop tearing the party apart.
I probably would have too. But for me it works both ways.
Most of your other arguments are similarly specious, all aimed at setting the groundwork for Clintons to steal the nomination from the delegate leader. That is the whole reason these talking points circulate.
Listen up, those planning to steal the nomination:
People are not joking when they say that, if Clinton tries to take the nomination away from the person who leads in delegates, it will tear the party apart. That’s seriously true and Clinton people will win something not worth having if they manage to use their decades-long machine power to do that.
Clintonistas, don’t think you’ll steal a nomination it and act as if you had no idea such a catastrophe would happen. It certainly will happen and it’ll be a damned shame.
Vote now. Follow the people. Choose a nominee. Win the election.
Heh. Oliver as Edna Mode:
Go! confront the problem! Fight! Win!
And call me when you get back, darling. I enjoy our visits.
if the situation were reversed, would you want Obama to drop out?
Why not?
sabutai, if Obama takes the nomination, will you vote for him as president? Because if you won’t, you’re basically a Republican and as such, should be considered a concern troll in the matter of the Democratic nominee.
Try to better veil your racism next time- “your boy”, “looks like a hustle”; come on now just because Hillary’s spokespeople are race-baiting doesn’t give you the moral license to do it.
Why should she quit and why should Superdelegates decide it now? They will decide it later, they have to because of the proportional representation system.
Obama is uninspiring to more people than you think. The latest poll by USA Today Gallup had her 5 points ahead of McCain in the General Election and two points ahead of Obama right now.
Mark me down as an Obama supporter who doesn’t think Clinton should drop out. Sure she has almost zero chance of actually winning, she’s gotten more delegates than any other 2nd place nominee in my lifetime. She can run all the way to the convention. What she should not do is run a nasty, McCain-surrogate campaign (the CinC test, the 3am phone call, using Ferraro’s racism, etc). To pull that against the presumptive nominee, or even a possible nominee, is completely unacceptable.
I’d agree with cv that Clinton has not run a strong campaign, but she has run as a strong candidate. She hasn’t been unable to grasp issues, she has been able to motivate her base, but she hasn’t developed a “theme” or narrative to draw in the majority. In any other cycle she’d win, she just had the misfortune to be running against Obama.
Point of order: it’s “AN historic victory.” I don’t know why.
Point of order: it’s “AN historic victory.” I don’t know why.
Because the sound of the word “a” tends to blend into the initial sound of the following word when that following word starts with a vowel (orange, elephant) or an aspirated “h” sound (harmonica, historic). In those cases “an” is instead so the sound of the “n” can separate those other two sounds and make them more distinct.
This is a little archaic and it is very common for folks to use just “a” when saying H words. Like using impact as a verb, it’s become accepted even if not classically correct
(Interestingly, when Geraldine Ferraro was selected to run for vice president the cover of Time magazine carried the banner “A Historic Choice”. They got a fair number of letters about it.)
Ah. There’s the bell. Class Dismissed.
this looks like a job for…Pedantic Man!
Hillary is not dropping out and if she gets the nomination simply because of of the superdelegates, do you really think she gives a rat’s ass what it will do to the party? I don’t know how many times it needs to be said. She could care less about anything but herself.
Sabutai is right. Oliver et al are wrong.
You guys seem to want this both ways. You say “Clinton can’t win, look at the numbers” but then you worry that she’ll steal the election. So she..um, can win, then, right? She may not be the best candidate, but she’s not an idiot. She’s not going to stay in this if she doesn’t think she can win. Same goes for Obama. We have elections for a reason; so everyone can have a voice. let the elections continue.
Besides, what happens if the super delegates DO decide this election tomorrow, and they end up electing Clinton?
Also, can we agree that just because someone supports Clinton over Obama, that doesn’t mean they’re a racist? Or a Republican? I mean, we are hoping to keep these people voting Democrat in the general election, right?
-M
Pedantic Man’s crimefighting partner Captain Linguistics to the rescue!
“Could care less” is not what you mean to say, Jay. If somebody “could” care less, then it doesn’t support the argument that the subject in question–in this case, “anything but [Hillary Clinton]“–is at the bottom of things that Mrs. Clinton thinks about.
“Couldn’t” care less is the correct phrasing, as it implies that the amount of care directed at the subject is already at the barest of minimums.
Hark! I hear somebody preparing to spell the phrase “a lot” as if it were one word! Off I go!
Another bunch of Obama cultists who can’t stand the suspense.
Once again, SUPERDELEGATES were designed, even MEANT to step into situations like this one, where there is basically a statistical dead heat.
Pennsylvania. BIG state.
HRC will win here; only question is by how much.
The entire Primary season being an imperfect process; millions of Obama voters not even Democrats, caucuses run under wild-west conditions, votes counted in all sorts of different ways, need I even mention MI and FL?
After PA, a statistical dead heat. Obama has run a great campaign, but has not closed the deal and closed out Hillary.
She has a valid claim to put in front of the superdelegates: She’s within 5% of Obama in every area, and has proven that she deserves consideration.
The superdelegates’ job is clear: DO whatever’s necessary for the Party to win in November. Put the best Democrat forward.
In my book, that’s Hillary. A proven quantity, a solid record, a solid foundation of Democratic member support, not here-today gone-tomorrow crossovers and hangers-on and trend followers.
We will see in the months ahead just how solid the support for Obama is, as he takes the hits, the slander, the slime, and the mudslinging by the Right. Right now, post-Wright, Obama’s base looks pretty soft to me.
Hey Captain Linguistics:
Bite me.
Is that linguistically correct?
Honestly, man, smiley or not…I can’t tell if you’re being flip or you’re just continuing the trend of Americans who hate to be told that they might be wrong about something.
Morgan: “She’s not going to stay in this if she doesn’t think she can win.”
But she may not be looking to win right now. Or, at least, only right now. Clearly the campaign didn’t go the way she had counted on; she didn’t clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday. So it’s quite plausible that, while still pulling every trick possible to get the nomination for this year, she is also looking ahead to 2012.
Support can certainly be found for the argument that she’s laid groundwork for Obama to not win against McCain (her many comments advocating McCain over Obama, for example) so she can have another crack at in in 4 years.
Morgan: “Besides, what happens if the super delegates DO decide this election tomorrow, and they end up electing Clinton?”
Just to be clear, you realize the “super delegates” DON’T get to decide the election, don’t you?
In my book, that’s Hillary. A proven quantity, a solid record, a solid foundation of Democratic member support, not here-today gone-tomorrow crossovers and hangers-on and trend followers.
I call bullshit. And that’s all I’m gonna say on the subject.
I am not alone when I say that I will boycott the general election if the superdelegates overturn the results of the state primaries and caucuses. I don’t care how razor-thin Obama’s lead in won delegates is. I’d be willing to put up $1000 that if the superdelegates break for Clinton despite Obama’s winning the most delegates, that Clinton will lose in November. That’s a guarantee. The party higher-ups hopefully know this.
A side note: This is a pretty idiotic system we have here
Somebody else mentioned that the Super delegates will pretty much do whatever is politically or personal expedient for them, a wholly self-serving group. So hopefully, they can tell which way the wind blows when the storm comes.
Not a chance. Her only “hope” is to convince the supers Obama is unelectable by trying to MAKE him unelectable herself. If you support her staying in, that is what you’re supporting. That’s your right, but do it with your eyes open, and think about whether Clinton would have a prayer in the fall after that.
Spider, I was being flip. I don’t get bent out of shape over stuff like that.
Her only “hope” is to convince the supers Obama is unelectable by trying to MAKE him unelectable herself.
Watch out for blowback in that event.
I’ll be part of that blowback. If that happens, I’ll sit on my hands in November. And I won’t feel the least bit guilty when McCain wins, because the margin will be much too decisive for my vote to have made a difference. I’ll take cold comfort in the fact that such a debacle would make the Clintons radioactive in the party once and for all.
Hillary has been up against constant misogyny, the world’s oldest prejudice from the likes of newsmen like Rush Limbaugh, Chris Matthews Olbermann, and many others. It’s amazing with all of the negative press she has received that she has done as well as she has. What the Democratic party is not considering is people like myself are Republican. I will vote for Hillary–so will many of my female Republican friends. We will not vote for Obama. I can tell you 100 Republican women who are going to vote for Hillary–given the chance, but we will vote for McCain, if the choice is between Hillary or Obama. So, Obama may get the Democratic nomination. The likes of Teddy Kennedy and other low lifes may support Obama, but in the end he cannot get elected. So the liberal press will have assured another defeat for the Democrats. Again.
Not me, I’ll vote for Hillary if she’s the nominee. She won’t be though. Obama is our next president.