Time to show how amazingly wrong one human being can be. Post yours in the comments.
House: +16 Dems
I have no idea how to truly gauge this. I’m not near any of the races, and damned if I can predict the voting habits of people. I feel like as unorganized as the Dems are, and as inept as they’ve been at the basics of political strategy, the perfect storm of an unpopular president and party in its sixth year will throw the congress to the Dems. I hope for a wave, but I’ll hedge my bets and go for just a really strong pipe that gives the Dems a close majority. I think that while 2004 was demoralizing, Democratic voters are way more enthusiastic than in 2002 when the party leaders - Daschle and Gephardt - had just signed off on going to war without any real debate on the issue. Whatever faults they may have, Reid and Pelosi (and Dean) have not sold the base down the river - which may be the exact sentiment felt on the right (how craptacular would you feel if you campaigned like hell for Bush in ‘04 to stop the gays from getting married and the minute he got re-elected he knifed you in the back?). The con bloggers keep trying to whip up some backlash (pushing their theories of the insidious conspiracy between Democrats, pollsters, and the media - they forgot to blame the Joooooos, ask Pat Buchanan), but I think many Republican and conservative voters are tired of pulling George Bush’s ass out of the fire.
Senate: +5 Dems
Minnesota: Kloubchar d. Kennedy
No reason why, just seems that way.
Pennsylvania: Casey d. Man On Dog Santorum
HALLELUJAH.
Maryland: Cardin d. Steele
Double digits.
Montana: Tester d. Burns
Senator Buzzcut
Arizona: Kyl d. Pederson
Seems to have lost his forward momentum
Connecticut: Lieberman d. Lamont
Bringing home the bacon trumps the Iraq War
Michigan: Stabenow d. Bouchard
Romp city
New Jersey: Menendez d. Kean
Blue state
Rhode Island: Whitehouse d. Chaffee
Blue state
Ohio: Brown d. DeWine
Stick a fork in him and the Ohio GOP
Washington: Cantwell d. McGavick
Blowout
Tennessee: Corker d. Ford
This is one of the toughest ones for me to call. I’m hoping it goes the other way, but I’m from a state south of the Mason-Dixon with a Yankee sensibility and I have a hard time seeing a part of the solid south like Tennessee voting for a black man for senator. Prove me wrong, please.
Missouri: McCaskill d. Talent
A squeaker, probably will come down to a few thousand votes
Virginia: I DON’T KNOW, but slight edge to Macaca
The question is, is Virginia moving from light red to light blue or purple? Webb polls great in Northern Virginia and that’s the region that delivered for Gov. Kaine. You wonder if Macaca’s “Ooooh he wrote a sex scene” was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Bonus picks:
MD-GOV: O’Malley d. Ehrlich
Maryland’s blue wave
PA-GOV: Rendell d. Swann
OH-GOV: Strickland d. Blackwell
The year of the Black Republican continues to kick ass and take names
I’m ready for all this stuff to be over so we can start talking about the 2008 election.
TRADESPORTS: The GOP contract tanked 4% on Monday, meaning the likelihood of Republicans holding the House is at 30%, which is almost an all-time low. Interestingly the Senate contract took a powder as well, still showing favorably for the GOP at 68% but well below the 80% mark it was just a few hours ago. The Iowa Markets show similar results - Dems get House, GOP gets Senate.
UPDATE: Likely, here’s why - Jim Webb is moving up like crazy.
Arkansas Gov. Race: Beebe d. Huchinson.
This will be good for the state. Is Bebee a great Democrat? Who knows? Not all Dems from AR can be like Bill Clinton. Still, this guy’s got a double digit lead over “ASA!”
I think you got it right. Tenn and Va are hard. Even though polls show Ford strong, I just don’t see a Dem winning in Tenn in a close race. When it is all said and done, the Senate may be tied - depending on what Smoking Joe Lieberman decides to do re Party affiliation votes. The House may go over.
Yes, of course! When states don’t elect black Republicans for governor it’s because those candidates are out of touch. When a state doesn’t elect a black Democrat it’s because of racism.
It’s all so clear.
Wow- you truly think Cardin will beat Steele by double digits?
Even after Wayne Curry, and most of the county Democrats in PG have loudly endorsed Steele? Could that open the floodgates?
If Cardin wins it will be “barely,” but what should have been a Cardin romp in a 2-1 Dem state is a toss-up.
And like Allen, McCaskill is taking a race that she could have won and is losing ground daily for all her stupid moves (Yes- the book move by Allen may have been the kiss of death- Webb has enough real life problems that far outweigh his fiction- stupid move.) Talent will win in MO. Of course, McCaskill had some help on losing ground on this from ACORN and a soldier named Josh. But hey- at least people will learn that a nurse practitioner is someone who can provide treatment for an ankle you broke playing volleyball.)
And Klobuchar beats Kennedy because despite the seemingly purple swing, Minnesota is still a blue state with a major ne
This is one of the toughest ones for me to call. I’m hoping it goes the other way, but I’m from a state south of the Mason-Dixon with a Yankee sensibility and I have a hard time seeing a part of the solid south like Tennessee voting for a black man for senator.
It has nothing to do with Ford being a black man. It has to do with Ford being a Democrat.
And remember, when Lieberman wins, it will count as a lost seat for the Democrats. It doesn’t matter if Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats or not.
…blue state with a major newspaper that is basically an extension of the Democratic party (although they always make a point to endorse one safe Republican to make it look like they are thoughtful and non-partisan.) Of course, it doesn’t hurt that her dad also work’s there.
Klobuchar and Kennedy are both lightweights steeped in talking points battling for a Democrat seat in a state that would never send two Republicans to the Senate.(Although Kennedy’s ads have been pretty entertaining.)
Wave Results - 2006 Midterm Elections - Predictions
Never been timid giving my predictions:
Assuming no November Surprize:
House:
Dems gain 35 seats +/- 10
Senate:
Dems hold NJ, MD, WA, MI.
Dems win RI, PA, OH, MT, MO, VA
Result:
Dems control both houses of Congress.
Bush stonewalls all oversight investigations forcing a constitutional crisis,
The TN senate race may surprize me but I don’t think white, southern, conservative voters will vote for Harold Ford, Jr. However, if the wave is big enough, Ford may just pull it out. If he does and the dems gain seven seats and Lieberman defeats Lamont in CT, the Senate Democratic caucus will strip Lieberman of his seniority. In that event, Lieberman loses his committee chairmanship. Lieberman won’t change parties because even if he did dems would retain the majority.
I like them apples!
If Republicans hold the Senate, the price of gas will average above $2.70 before christmas. If Dems take it, the price will stay close to the current levels or lower.
There is the outside possibility of a Dem sweep, if the undecideds break our way.
I won’t bet on it, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Maybe we should bet the over/under ?
Yes, of course! When states don’t elect black Republicans for governor it’s because those candidates are out of touch. When a state doesn’t elect a black Democrat it’s because of racism.
Man, I’m glad no one really condensed those two elections and left out possibly-significant details related to voter leanings in Red and Blue states and over two hundred years of local cultural attitudes toward race, because man, they’d really look like a moron, wouldn’t they.
And remember, when Lieberman wins, it will count as a lost seat for the Democrats. It doesn’t matter if Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats or not.
Oh, sweet! We can do that? Awesome. I call that if Corker wins, it doesn’t really count. Because I called it. In fact I licked the voting machine handle; it’s mine now. NO BACKSIES! Pinky swear.
Klobuchar and Kennedy are both lightweights steeped in talking points battling for a Democrat seat in a state that would never send two Republicans to the Senate. (Although Kennedy’s ads have been pretty entertaining.)
Except we have done that. From 1978 through 1990 (Paul Wellstone knocks off Rubber Stamp Rudy), Minnesota had two Republican senators. Of course, one of the was Dave Durenberger, who pretty openly doesn’t like the Republican party anymore (he endorsed John Kerry in 2004).
Incidentally, I’ve met Klobuchar’s dad, who is quite famous up here, as you said. Real dick. I’m still voting for her, but her father is one of the most pompous asses I have ever met.