I’m as nervous as they come about the national results of the upcoming election, but I have frankly found the prognostications about Maryland’s gubernatorial and senatorial elections to be just this side of laughable when they err in favor of the Republican ticket. It’s cancer to be a Republican in America right now, much less in a deep-sea blue state like Maryland.
Just last night I took a cab in Silver Spring. The cab driver struck up a conversation with me about the election, he was a recent immigrant from Africa and precisely the kind of guy that is supposed to be enthralled by Michael Steele and his ilk. And yet, this working class guy is telling me that he’s working towards his citizenship and he wants me to vote for Ben Cardin and Martin O’Malley.
The Washington Post has polled Maryland, and the outlook looks like hell for the GOP in The Free State.
A strong Democratic tide in Maryland threatens to swamp Republican
Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s reelection bid and bolsters the party’s
efforts to retain control of an important U.S. Senate seat, according
to a new Washington Post poll.Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley
(D) held a 10 percentage point lead over Ehrlich, and Democratic Senate
nominee Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin had a similar advantage over Republican
Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele among likely voters in the Post poll, which
was conducted last Sunday through Thursday. The leads were well beyond
the survey’s three percentage point margin of error.The poll of 1,000 voters showed that the state’s overwhelmingly
Democratic electorate is highly disturbed about national issues –
extremely critical of President Bush, more upset about the war in Iraq
than voters in the rest of the country and eager to shift power in
Washington from the Republican Party.
This is the kind of voter that gives the Steele campaign heartburn:
But Kenneth Kirby, 52, a former airline worker from Annapolis who is black, said he supports Cardin because he’s a loyal Democrat. He said he stopped considering Steele “after I learned he was, essentially, a Bush appointee.”
And the Bush connection doesn’t help Ehrlich either:
Henry Evans, 60, a postal carrier from Prince George’s County, said he has no problem with the way Ehrlich has done his job but is backing O’Malley. “My reason is that Governor Ehrlich has supported the president and what’s going on in Iraq,” Evans said. “I’m against that.”
We saw this in the primaries, where the Democratic base in Maryland was clearly energized and in a voting mood - even old line Democrats got thrown out in the primaries. The story has clearly unnerved Hugh Hewitt, the GOP’s top blogosphere cheerleader (Hewitt and the right once again take the approach that when the media reports facts that unfavorably reflect on Republicans, the Republicans aren’t the problem - the facts are. The facts have a liberal bias.), but I belive it represents the "ground truth" here in Maryland of Democrats on a roll. Witness Bob Ehrlich’s numbers. He doesn’t have very high negatives, but regardless has not led in a single poll since January. Even after the Republican Governor’s Association came in here and trashed Baltimore (I find it quite distasteful that our sitting governor sees nothing wrong with himself and outside groups coming in and trashing the city in our state with the highest population) and Mr. O’Malley’s improvements there - it hasn’t put a dent in the numbers. Why?
Maryland is tired of Republicans, and come election day we’re going to kick them out of the governorship and put Ben Cardin in the U.S. Senate.
Straight Ticket, Maryland!
Ben Cardin for Senate.
Martin O’Malley for Governor.
Peter Franchot for Comptroller.
Doug Gansler for Attorney General.
House
District 1: Jim Corwin
District 2: Dutch Ruppersberger
District 3: John Sarbanes
District 4: Al Wynn
District 5: Steny Hoyer
District 6: Andrew Duck
District 7: Elijah Cummings
District 8: Chris Van Hollen
FOLLOW THE MONEY: Tradesports currently shows a Cardin win at 78% likelihood and an 85% chance of O’Malley winning. (and as I’ve been following, the likelihood of the GOP retaining House control is at 34%)
I just saw Steele on Meet the Press. When Russert asked him why he was “running away” from Bush and the Republican moniker, Steele said he wanted to stand apart from the political divisiveness that has become so virulent these past six years.
Does this mean he’s running as a uniter and not a divider?
Also, when he said he did not want Roe v Wade overturned, I’m left to wonder how Maryland’s religious right will respond, especially on election day.