From the folks at InTrade, a prediction market where traders put their money where their mouth is on world events.
On August 2nd, it was reported that Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) said he would retire if Democrats failed to retake the House of Representatives. After the House.GOP.2006 contract’s movement in the last three weeks, it would appear Rangel need not worry about keeping that promise. The contract, whose prices (as set purely by traders, so all odds are purely market-driven) reflect the percentage probability that Republicans would keep control of the House, had already fallen to the high 40s by August. It wavered afterward and by September’s end had its last peak in the high 50s, but it has since experienced a free-fall to the low 30s.
They show the Senate remaining in the GOP column, but boil it down to Tennessee (Harold Ford) and Missouri (Claire McCaskill) as the Republican’s last stand.
Similarly Tradesports shows House GOP retention at only a 33.5% likelihood while the Senate number is at 63.8%.
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