Oliver Willis

The table is set. Our troops are dying and the GOP wants to “stay the course”. We need to fight terrorism and destroy Al Qaeda and kill Bin Laden, the GOP thinks the job is too hard. We need stem cell research to look for possible cures, the GOP wants to block it. We need real middle class tax relief to make an economic boom that lifts all boats, Republicans oppose it. The stakes are high, the opposition a radical sect.

These are the stakes.

The final pre-election NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggests that Democrats continue to have a significant advantage heading into the midterms that take place exactly one week from Tuesday.

They hold a 15-point lead — tied for the largest ever in the survey — over Republicans in voters’ preference for control of Congress. President George W. Bush’s approval rating remains mired below 40 percent. And more than 60 percent feel less confident that the war in Iraq will come to a successful conclusion, the largest number ever on that question.

Vote, call your friends and family, tell ‘em to vote. A lot of people have been beaten, killed and worse in order to secure the right to a vote. The least we can do is honor their memory by spending a few minutes next Tuesday to put America back on track.

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It’s no surprise that the party of Iraq, Katrina, and 9/11 is worried about the coming election and has resorted to yet another attack on John Kerry to rile up the con base. What is surprising is how strong a response Sen Kerry has put out. I’m reproducing it in full, because if he had been this tough in ‘04 he would have won. And the Democratic campaign that is this tough in ‘08 will win.

Senator John Kerry issued the following statement in response to White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, assorted right wing nut-jobs, and right wing talk show hosts desperately distorting Kerry’s comments about President Bush to divert attention from their disastrous record:

“If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they’re crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I’m sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did.

I’m not going to be lectured by a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox’s Parkinson’s disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq. It disgusts me that these Republican hacks, who have never worn the uniform of our country lie and distort so blatantly and carelessly about those who have.

The people who owe our troops an apology are George W. Bush and Dick Cheney who misled America into war and have given us a Katrina foreign policy that has betrayed our ideals, killed and maimed our soldiers, and widened the terrorist threat instead of defeating it. These Republicans are afraid to debate veterans who live and breathe the concerns of our troops, not the empty slogans of an Administration that sent our brave troops to war without body armor.

Bottom line, these Republicans want to debate straw men because they’re afraid to debate real men. And this time it won’t work because we’re going to stay in their face with the truth and deny them even a sliver of light for their distortions. No Democrat will be bullied by an administration that has a cut and run policy in Afghanistan and a stand still and lose strategy in Iraq.”

THESE ARE THE STAKES: You can vote for a party that gets mock outraged at twisting someone’s words, but doesn’t bat an eye at 3,000 Americans dying for no good reason - or you can vote for the Democrats.

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Time to show how amazingly wrong one human being can be. Post yours in the comments.

House: +16 Dems

I have no idea how to truly gauge this. I’m not near any of the races, and damned if I can predict the voting habits of people. I feel like as unorganized as the Dems are, and as inept as they’ve been at the basics of political strategy, the perfect storm of an unpopular president and party in its sixth year will throw the congress to the Dems. I hope for a wave, but I’ll hedge my bets and go for just a really strong pipe that gives the Dems a close majority. I think that while 2004 was demoralizing, Democratic voters are way more enthusiastic than in 2002 when the party leaders - Daschle and Gephardt - had just signed off on going to war without any real debate on the issue. Whatever faults they may have, Reid and Pelosi (and Dean) have not sold the base down the river - which may be the exact sentiment felt on the right (how craptacular would you feel if you campaigned like hell for Bush in ‘04 to stop the gays from getting married and the minute he got re-elected he knifed you in the back?). The con bloggers keep trying to whip up some backlash (pushing their theories of the insidious conspiracy between Democrats, pollsters, and the media - they forgot to blame the Joooooos, ask Pat Buchanan), but I think many Republican and conservative voters are tired of pulling George Bush’s ass out of the fire.

Senate: +5 Dems

Minnesota: Kloubchar d. Kennedy
No reason why, just seems that way.

Pennsylvania: Casey d. Man On Dog Santorum
HALLELUJAH.

Maryland: Cardin d. Steele
Double digits.

Montana: Tester d. Burns
Senator Buzzcut

Arizona: Kyl d. Pederson
Seems to have lost his forward momentum

Connecticut: Lieberman d. Lamont
Bringing home the bacon trumps the Iraq War

Michigan: Stabenow d. Bouchard
Romp city

New Jersey: Menendez d. Kean
Blue state

Rhode Island: Whitehouse d. Chaffee
Blue state

Ohio: Brown d. DeWine
Stick a fork in him and the Ohio GOP

Washington: Cantwell d. McGavick
Blowout

Tennessee: Corker d. Ford
This is one of the toughest ones for me to call. I’m hoping it goes the other way, but I’m from a state south of the Mason-Dixon with a Yankee sensibility and I have a hard time seeing a part of the solid south like Tennessee voting for a black man for senator. Prove me wrong, please.

Missouri: McCaskill d. Talent
A squeaker, probably will come down to a few thousand votes

Virginia: I DON’T KNOW, but slight edge to Macaca
The question is, is Virginia moving from light red to light blue or purple? Webb polls great in Northern Virginia and that’s the region that delivered for Gov. Kaine. You wonder if Macaca’s “Ooooh he wrote a sex scene” was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Bonus picks:
MD-GOV: O’Malley d. Ehrlich
Maryland’s blue wave

PA-GOV: Rendell d. Swann
OH-GOV: Strickland d. Blackwell
The year of the Black Republican continues to kick ass and take names

I’m ready for all this stuff to be over so we can start talking about the 2008 election.

TRADESPORTS: The GOP contract tanked 4% on Monday, meaning the likelihood of Republicans holding the House is at 30%, which is almost an all-time low. Interestingly the Senate contract took a powder as well, still showing favorably for the GOP at 68% but well below the 80% mark it was just a few hours ago. The Iowa Markets show similar results - Dems get House, GOP gets Senate.

UPDATE: Likely, here’s why - Jim Webb is moving up like crazy.

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A: President Bush was in Sugar Land, TX campaigning for a Republican today. Sugar Land, TX. The Democratic equivalent would be Bill Clinton having to campaign in New York City or Los Angeles.

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