Comments on: 2006 Predictions

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Thu, 05 Jan 2006 19:01:38 +0000

What did I tell you?

By: buma

buma — Tue, 03 Jan 2006 07:01:07 +0000

So PSU, how is it that you ‘blend in with all the liberals in Philly’?

By: factcheck

factcheck — Mon, 02 Jan 2006 02:01:40 +0000

Just what a thought, can t answer the question.

By: Frank_D

Frank_D — Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:01:15 +0000

In 2006, the Democrats’ march toward the dustbin of history will continue.
By Labor Day, there will be less than 100,000 troops in Iraq.
Alito will be confirmed.
Republicans will continue to hold the House and the Senate.
Dr. “Demento” Dean will average one crazy statement per month.
Bush’s “Is the President doing a good job (generic)?” numbers will average 50% for the year.
In 2006, the Democrats’ march toward the dustbin of history will continue.
Oh yeah, I said that already.
Hehe.

By: ian

ian — Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:01:31 +0000

Just what a thought, can’t answer the question.

By: factcheck

factcheck — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 03:12:32 +0000

ian, why won’t you serve your president that you love so much? Please make this a straight answer and don’t give me some con spin about “fighting the war of ideas”. Your 18th birthday is soon- time you become a man.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 02:12:21 +0000

A conservative religious leader will be embroiled in a scandal involving sex or money
This is assuming they’ve ever stopped.

By: ian

ian — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 02:12:15 +0000

Thanks for naming an instance Tinfoiler in a basement.

How about first talking about the Clintons

By: ian

ian — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 02:12:00 +0000

factcheck — Did you and do you still continue to support the military operations in Afghanistan? Please make this a yes or no answer and not some silly liberal spin to it.

By: elrod

elrod — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:12:36 +0000

I should add one point about gerrymandering and the House races. Everybody assumes that gerrymandering will make it more difficult for Dems to pick up seats. In an ordinary election that would be true. But if there are major national rumblings in the Dem direction, the tide could be even stronger BECAUSE of the gerrymandering. Remember, when you redraw the map to give your party more seats, you make your own seats potentially more vulnerable. Tom DeLay, for example, redrew his own district in order to create majority GOP districts elsewhere. But now he may find himself without the margin of victory necessary to overcome the scandal.

By: elrod

elrod — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:12:28 +0000

Diamond,
2006 is tougher for a Democratic takeover of the Senate then 2008 will be. But there are plenty of opportunities to take over in 2006. Consider:
PA - Santorum is toast.
OH - DeWine is very vulnerable to either Sherrod Brown or Paul Hackett. Recent polls show DeWine tied or losing to both challengers. And DeWine is not liked by the hard-right GOP base because of his role in the Gang of Fourteen. Also, the massive corruption of the Ohio GOP, which will almost certainly lead to Democrat Ted Strickland taking over the Governor’s seat, will encourage Dems to vote and Republicans to stay home.
RI - I expect Whitehouse to pull way ahead from Chaffee by mid-summer.
MO - Talent is not very popular and Governor Blunt is extremely unpopular because of the health care crisis. Blunt barely defeated Clair McCaskill in 2004, who is well-positioned to take on Talent.
MT - Senator Burns may very well get indicted in the Abramoff mess. Either way, State Auditor Morrison and possibly Jon Tester, will give Burns a run for his money. Montana’s Democratic Party is riding very high right now.
TN - Recent polls show Harold Ford roughly even with his main challengers, Bryant and Hilleary. I bet Ford will ultimately lose, but this race will be very close. Ford is the best Dem to run for Senate from TN since Gore and Sasser left the Senate in the early 1990s.
AZ - Jon Kyl has low approval numbers and soft re-elect numbers. Jim Pedersen is a self-financed multi-millionaire who could pull off an upset. This will be a longshot, but Kyl is far from invulnerable.
MS - If Lott runs again, this race is over. But if he retires, Attorney General Mike Moore (D) will be the favorite.
ME - Olympia Snowe wins in a landslide. But she might not run. Chances are she does run, though.

I think the Dems will take 5 of these seats - PA, OH, RI, MO and MT; they’ll come close in TN and a little less close in AZ.

As for Dem seats, the biggest GOP pick-up chances are:

MN - But Mark Kennedy is not very popular in the state, and Klobuchar leads Kennedy in every poll. Had Dayton ran again he may have lost. But the DFL is on a roll in MN and I think Klobuchar will pull it out. Wetterling would be closer - and she’d be smarter to run for Kennedy’s House seat, actually.

NJ - Menendez will hold on. NJ just doesn’t like to put Republicans in the Senate, and as popular as the Kean name is, he’s held no state-wide office. His dad’s coattails aren’t enough (unlike Bob Casey Jr in PA who has held statewide office). Also, Menendez will rally Hispanic voters.

MD - If Cardin gets the nomination he wins in a landslide. If it’s Mfume, the race will be closer. But MD won’t put a Republican in the Senate. Not in this climate.

WA, MI - Stabenow and Cantwell, though mediocre politicians, hold large leads over all of their challengers. These races may be fairly close in the end, but they’ll stay Dem.

NE, FL, ND - The Nelsons and Dorgan would have been ripe for a challenge if Liddy Dole had done her homework. But none of these Red State Dems will face a serious challenger.

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 00:12:08 +0000

The Democrats have a chance to pick up the House. The Texas-Tommymandering makes it tough, but they will pick up seats. For 2006 to be like 2002 or 1998, the ruling party needs to find some way to change the topic of conversation, which in off-year elections normally is, “Do you like the guys in charge?” (It’s easier to mobilize folks against the ruling clique than for something.) I don’t think Rove can change the topic of conversation this time around, what with the disasterous effects that happened the last time he did this.

The Senate, however, is unlikely to change hands. The Democrats may well pick up a few seats (Santorum is toast), but there are more Democrats up for reelection this year than Republicans, making this basically a pipe fantasy. A Democratic gain of more than three seats may well trigger some sort of leadership crisis, where the Trent Lott crowd (remnants of the long-standing Senate structure, going back to Bob Dole) tries to get revenge against the Bill Frist crowd (White House-oriented leadership) for December 2002’s unhorsing. The White House may try a similar unhorsing if/when Tom DeLay goes.

By: Jay C

Jay C — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:12:54 +0000

Big deal. We ve got the media.

AND THE TRUTH……..SHALL SET YOU FREE!!!!!

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:12:34 +0000

wingers are WAY better armed and much more accurate

Big deal. We’ve got the media.

By: Semanticleo

Semanticleo — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:12:13 +0000

Spoken like the jack-booted Brownshirt you would like to be;
in your fantasies.

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:12:09 +0000

Chalabi will pop up yet again.

Ooops. That one’s not a prediction anymore.

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 21:12:05 +0000

your typical birkenstock eating granola lefty& ..!

Birkenstock-eating?

By: Semanticleo

Semanticleo — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 20:12:59 +0000

I predict the growing chasm between left and right will continue
and (perhaps not next year, but certainly by 2008) will result
in social unrest that resembles Baghdad, more than it does
Chicago ‘68.

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 20:12:56 +0000

*Kim Jong Il will do something crazy.

By: John S.

John S. — Fri, 30 Dec 2005 20:12:51 +0000

I m sorry, but the moon could have exploded sometime in the days and weeks after he was indicted and we would have never known about it the media was so busy drooling over that story.

Drooling? Only if there were another white girl missing in Aruba…