Count me among those skeptical of 2006 being a new 1994. There’s too much gerrymandering and entrenched incumbents, I believe, for that sort of change to happen any more. I think there are congressional seats to be gained, an erosion (Santorum) and retention (Cardin/Mfume) of senatorial seats, as well as gubernatorial seats to pick back up (Maryland and Massachusetts, for instance). But here’s an interesting tidbit found by the folks at TNR. A few months ago, the spinners at the RNC indicated that overall polls on the mood of the country were not the best indicators of how incumbent GOP congressmen would do. Instead they argued that questions about whether you would retain your congressman were a better measure. At the time the RNC made that statement, that percentage was at 57%.
Now? It’s down 20%, meaning that only 37% of the people would keep their incumbent congressman, and by the GOP’s own definition, a bad sign for next year.
It’s possible that number could bounce back in the next year… but I kind of doubt it.
Also, there are more Democratic Senators up for reelection than Republican Senators. Not terribly good for that chamber.