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	<title>Oliver Willis &#187; Polling</title>
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	<description>Like Kryptonite To Stupid</description>
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		<title>Tightening!</title>
		<link>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/01/tightening-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/01/tightening-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 18:59:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oliver Willis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John McCain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Newsweek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11095</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Obama now leads by 10 in Gallup&#8217;s most McCain-friendly measure of the likely voters this election.
McCain&#8217;s got us right where he wants us.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx">now leads by 10</a> in Gallup&#8217;s most McCain-friendly measure of the likely voters this election.</p>
<p>McCain&#8217;s got us right where he wants us.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<title>Zogby + Drudge: Match Made In Heaven</title>
		<link>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/31/zogby-drudge-match-made-in-heaven/</link>
		<comments>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/31/zogby-drudge-match-made-in-heaven/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 03:39:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oliver Willis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Conservatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11082</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Seriously, why would anyone take either of those &#8220;news&#8221; sources seriously?
>> That Zogby Poll
>> John Zogby
>> Drudge, Lowry revived falsehood that Obama didn&#8217;t vote to condemn MoveOn Petraeus ad
>> Drudge highlighted Financial Times quote echoing false rumor about Obama&#8217;s religion 
But the Freepers and the gang at Hot Air are positively giddy. Coming down from [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Seriously, why would anyone take either of those &#8220;news&#8221; sources seriously?</p>
<p>>> <a href="http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/08/20/that-zogby-poll/">That Zogby Poll</a><br />
>> <a href="http://www.oliverwillis.com/2007/11/20/john-zogby/">John Zogby</a><br />
>> <a href="http://mediamatters.org/items/200807010003">Drudge, Lowry revived falsehood that Obama didn&#8217;t vote to condemn MoveOn Petraeus ad</a><br />
>> <a href="http://mediamatters.org/items/200805120002">Drudge highlighted Financial Times quote echoing false rumor about Obama&#8217;s religion </a></p>
<p>But the <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2121384/posts">Freepers</a> and the gang at <a href="http://hotair.com/headlines/?p=22272">Hot Air</a> are positively giddy. Coming down from a high really hurts. <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html">Three days to go</a>. Expect lots of all-caps.</p>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Polling, Shmolling</title>
		<link>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/09/17/polling-shmolling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/09/17/polling-shmolling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 09:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oliver Willis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9246</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In all this hubub about polling recently, I am reminded of this story from October of 2004
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai&#8217;i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.
The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai&#8217;i Poll suggest [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In all this hubub about polling recently, I am reminded of this story from <a href="http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html">October of 2004</a></p>
<blockquote><p>President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai&#8217;i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.</p>
<p>The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai&#8217;i Poll suggest that Hawai&#8217;i&#8217;s four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.</p>
<p>The Hawai&#8217;i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. </p></blockquote>
<p>You should also remember that in response to this poll, the Kerry campaign sent Al Gore to Hawaii to campaign while Bush sent Cheney there.</p>
<p>John Kerry won Hawaii <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/HI/">by 9%</a>. So remember, whether your guy is in the lead or not, they could all be wrong. In other words: President Bob Barr. Yeah, I said it.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>That Zogby Poll</title>
		<link>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/08/20/that-zogby-poll/</link>
		<comments>http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/08/20/that-zogby-poll/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:27:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oliver Willis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John McCain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Newsweek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=8625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You would think some people slept through the last year the way they&#8217;re reacting to the just released Zogby poll showing a 5% &#8220;lead&#8221; for McCain.
Let&#8217;s go go the tape:
Georgia Primary
Zogby: 48% Obama 28% Clinton
Reality: 66% Obama 31% Clinton
New Jersey Primary
Zogby: 43% Clinton 42% Obama
Reality: Clinton 53% Obama 43%
California Primary
Zogby: Clinton 41% Obama 45%
Reality: Clinton [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You would think some people slept through the last year the way they&#8217;re reacting to the just released <a href="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1541">Zogby poll</a> showing a 5% &#8220;lead&#8221; for McCain.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.oliverwillis.com/img/ZZ6E34812D.jpg" width="180" height="300" alt="ludwig von drake" align="right" />Let&#8217;s go go the tape:</p>
<p>Georgia Primary</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444">Zogby</a>: 48% Obama 28% Clinton<br />
<a href="http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/state/ga">Reality</a>: 66% Obama 31% Clinton</p>
<p>New Jersey Primary</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444">Zogby</a>: 43% Clinton 42% Obama<br />
<a href="http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NJ.html">Reality</a>: Clinton 53% Obama 43%</p>
<p>California Primary</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444">Zogby</a>: Clinton 41% Obama 45%<br />
<a href="http://news.aol.com/elections/primary/state/ca">Reality</a>: Clinton 52% Obama 45%</p>
<p>And on and on. It&#8217;s not that Zogby has a bias for or against one candidate, it&#8217;s not that his polling favors one or the other&#8230; it&#8217;s just that Zogby&#8217;s polling <a href="http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_loopy_zogby_polls.php">ain&#8217;t very good</a>. In all likelihood the race nationally is even with probably a slight favoring of Obama, but the freaking out from people is really without serious merit.</p>
<p>Of course, I think it&#8217;s best when the press and the right underestimates Sen. Obama.</p>
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