Politics News

A Few Predictions For The Lockbox

8:14 pm EST August 4th, 2011 | Politics | 15 Comments

This seems like as good a day as any to put this out there.

Here are some of my 2012 election predictions:

1. President Obama will not face any serious primary challenge and will easily be re-nominated
2. The Obama campaign will reach or be very close to the $1 billion mark for fundraising
3. Mitt Romney will not be the Republican nominee (I thought Pawlenty could squeeze in but his campaign is poorly run. I actually see a path to the nomination for Bachmann — please, please, please — and they may be seduced by Rick Perry or some other fool who checks the right boxes)
4. Democrats will retain the Senate (this is my least certain prediction) and eat into the GOP’s House majority
5. President Obama will be re-elected. His margin of victory will be smaller than 2008 (unless the nominee is Palin or Bachmann). Swing states he will keep: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

As usual, these predictions are worth what you paid for them (nothing) and are probably all wrong.

Mitt Romney Super PAC Gets Shady $1 Million Donation

8:16 am EST August 4th, 2011 | Politics | 1 Comment

Yeah, that’s not suspicious at all.

A mystery company that pumped $1 million into a political committee backing Mitt Romney has been dissolved just months after it was formed, leaving few clues as to who was behind one of the biggest contributions yet of the 2012 presidential campaign.

The existence of the million-dollar donation — as gleaned from campaign and corporate records obtained by NBC News — provides a vivid example of how secret campaign cash is being funneled in ever more circuitous ways into the political system.

The company, W Spann LLC, was formed in March by a Boston lawyer who specializes in estate tax planning for “high net worth individuals,” according to corporate records and the lawyer’s bio on her firm’s website.

Topic: 2012 Election, Mitt Romney

We Are Doomed

3:19 pm EST July 26th, 2011 | Economy, Politics | 77 Comments

The position of President Obama and the Democrats on the debt ceiling is terrible. It involves cuts to social programs, and a belt tightening philosophy precisely when the economic environment demands almost exactly the opposite sort of policy.

The problem is it is the best worst option available to us. The Republican proposals were even more austere and less useful in shoring up our economy.

The Overton Window refers to the concept of an idea slowly gaining acceptance until it becomes mainstream thought. The Overton Window has so shifted that the crappy Democratic proposal seems like a far better choice.

We are doomed.

We face gigantic problems in the country and in the world. But our political machinery is simply incapable of even acknowledging the problems, much less fixing them. An economy paralyzed by job loss is being discussed as a debt problem, for Christ’s sake.

We are going down the same road to austerity as England, and what they’ve had to show for it is stagnant growth — and oh, lucky for us, England has a far more extensive safety net for the middle class and unfortunate. When our economy seizes up as we feed Grover Norquist’s fetish for starving the beast, there’s not nearly enough of a cushion for those who need it.

We are doomed.

New CNN Poll Shows Public Supporting Obama & Rejecting House GOP on Debt Ceiling

12:13 pm EST July 21st, 2011 | Politics | 27 Comments

In CNN’s new poll on the debt ceiling we see that more people support the type of proposal being promoted by President Obama, and not the extremist offering from House Republicans. 34% support the GOP’s position of only spending cuts, while an overwhelming 64% support a mix of cuts and tax increases.

52% find the President has acted responsibly, while only 33% say the same of the House GOP — while 63% rightly say the Republicans have not acted responsibly.

If the the ceiling isn’t raised, only 30% say President Obama is responsible, while 51% would blame the GOP.

When they are asked what to cut and who to tax, people say hands off farm subsidies, pensions for government workers, medicaid, medicare, and social security. A thinner majority (52-47) supports defense cuts, while there is huge support (70%+) for ending subsidies to big oil, increasing the tax on private jets, and increasing taxes on those making over $250,000 a year.

This is an almost across-the-board win for the positions Democrats have mostly pushed — but the media and the right keeps acting as if the fringe tea party position has any serious support. It is seriously out of whack.

Tim Pawlenty Is A Coward

10:39 am EST July 21st, 2011 | Politics | 1 Comment

In politics, you can’t make accusations then just walk away. You either stand behind them or go home. In Tim Pawlenty’s case, he’s now made a hasty retreat — again.

Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty walked back earlier criticism of rival Michele Bachmann’s migraines on Wednesday, calling the attention over her headaches “a sideshow.”

“I think it’s mostly a sideshow,” Pawlenty said on Fox News. “I’ve observed Congresswoman Bachmann. I’ve never seen her have a medical condition or impairment that would seem to be a concern.”

For a while I thought Pawlenty was just inoffensive enough to secure the nomination – Romney without the flip flop and religious problems. But that seems like a stretch now. He’ll be lucky to do as well as also-rans like Duncan Hunter did in 2008.

Topic: Tim Pawlenty

Obama Beats Fundraising Goal… By About $20 Million

7:24 am EST July 13th, 2011 | Democrats, Politics | Comments Off

Yeah, so that‘s pretty good.

The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised a combined $86 million between April and June, blowing past the $60 million goal set by both groups at the start of the fundraising quarter. Obama campaign manager Jim Messina announced the total in a video released before dawn Wednesday, touting the 552,462 donors who contributed and claiming “more grassroots support at this point in the process than any campaign in political history.” “We did this from the bottom up. We didn’t accept one single dollar from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs,” Messina said.

Topic: 2012 Election, President Obama

Watching You, Watching You

9:33 pm EST July 9th, 2011 | Politics | 39 Comments

American Bridge on the case.

At 27, he is a full-time “tracker” for American Bridge 21st Century, a new Democratic organization that aims to record every handshake, every utterance by Republican candidates in 2011 and 2012, looking for gotcha moments that could derail political ambitions or provide fodder for television advertisements by liberal groups next year.

The organization has hired a dozen professional trackers like Mr. Fielding, outfitted them with the latest high-tech cameras and computers and positioned them in key states where Republican candidates are busy chattering away to voters. If all works as planned, incriminating moments captured by American Bridge will quickly become part of the political bloodstream.

Combined with a team of 20 researchers in a Washington “war room” that has a large rack of computer servers, the effort is part of a push by Democratic groups to bolster their opposition research. Republicans also have trackers, but so far have not assembled the kind of centralized video archive of political caught-on-tape moments that their rivals envision.

Heath Shuler In Talks To Suck Somewhere Other Than Congress

2:59 pm EST June 29th, 2011 | Politics, Sports | 5 Comments

Heath Shuler sucks.

Heath Shuler sucked as the Redskins starting quarterback for the 4 mins he held the job, and he has sucked as a “Democrat” in congress who thinks his calling is to attack Democrats and knife Pelosi in the back.

Heath Shuler sucks.

So I wonder if the University of Tennessee understands that while Heath played well for them in his college years, his post-college life has largely been a giant bowl of suck, and I’m betting he’ll suck at being an athletic director.

That said, if he leaves congress, that institution will suck a little less. (via Todd, who understands that Heath Shuler sucks)

Topic: Heath Shuler

VIDEO: Bernie Sanders Vs. Rand Paul

2:32 pm EST June 22nd, 2011 | Politics | 61 Comments

They’re debating senior aid, but it could be anything. Sanders (and Al Franken) articulates a strong, progressive vision that happens to be cheaper and humane — while Rand Paul, glibertarian, demonstrates that he and his movement don’t really care about people.

Matt Bai Starts The Media For Huntsman Campaign

2:53 pm EST June 17th, 2011 | Media, Politics | 1 Comment

Jon Huntsman Jr. has no shot at the Republican nomination. Period. If his only demerits were his relatively moderate positioning (if not positions) he would be viable, but he is a former Obama administration official attempting to head today’s Republican party.

That’s a little like former FEMA head Michael Brown running against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 and thinking anybody would vote for him.

But that doesn’t deter the media, and especially not professional center-mush cheerleader Matt Bai who has a column on why we ought to take Huntsman seriously you guys.

As Bai almost always does, he gets in a dig at Democrats:

Democrats and some commentators tend to see the Republican Party right now as a kind of wild, barren land where nothing thoughtful ever grows.

Yeah, where would we get an idea like that? It isn’t as if there is a Republican electorate seriously pondering the end of Medicare, Palin/Bachmann as legitimate candidates, or that the President is a secret Muslim bent on subjugating America to global government. Right?

If you wonder why the coverage of the right from outlets like the Times has such a poor connection to reality, it is because writers like Bai refuse to acknowledge the movement and its party for the extremist beast it is.

In their world, because Lindsey Graham chats them up real nice at a dinner party, there’s no way they could be the reality-denying luddites those mean old Democrats make them out to be. For the mainstream press, the thought is unthinkable.

And that’s why a writer like Bai pretends this away and pens silly columns about how the primary electorate in the Republican party unlike every other election year is really this time going to be sweet and moderate and not crazy at all so they will vote for a moderate-ish Mormon former Obama administration member.

If you think otherwise, you’re one of those mean old Democrats.

Topic: 2012 Election, Jon Huntsman Jr., Matt Bai, New York Times