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2008 Election News

A Regional Southern Party

Ah, Georgia you re-elected Saxby Chambliss and you didn’t vote with the rest of America on election day.
Georgia, I know Virginia and North Carolina.
And Georgia, you’re no Virginia or North Carolina.
Woe are the Democrats who will have to make do with 58-59 members of their senate caucus, total control of the House and a [...]

Mark Begich Wins, Dems +1 More In The Senate

Woot.
Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has lost his bid for a seventh term. The longest-serving Republican in the history of the Senate trailed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by 3,724 votes after Tuesday’s count. That’s an insurmountable lead with only about 2,500 overseas ballots left to be counted.

Election 2008

AP: Obama becomes first black president in landslide
11:37: It happened here. In America.
11:00BARACKOBAMAELECTED44THPRESIDENTOFTHEUNITEDSTATES
10:44: Fox calls VA for Obama. YES. YES.
10:04: Chris Wallace calls Bob Schaffer and Tom Udall “two very attractive men”
10:00 Iowa goes Obama. WOOT.
9:39 Fred Barnes is pissy.
9:38 New Mexico baby. SO EXCITED
9:31 O-H-I-O
9:24: NBC calls OHIO.
9:20: Fox calling Ohio… we’ll see.
9:01 Minnesota [...]

Final Prediction

Obama 286 - McCain 252
Popular vote: Obama by 2%
Map:

I feel pretty safe with this map. I’m conservative when it comes to these things, though I wouldn’t be surprised now with an Obama win in FL, OH, MO and even NC. Of those, the most likely to flip is FL which would be a huge prize.
In [...]

Bush Led Kerry At This Point In 2004

I don’t know why people writing about the election - especially conservatives - keep getting this wrong. Today it is Edward Luce writing in the Financial Times.
The RealClear Politics website’s average of polls, which gives Mr Obama a lead of 6.8 per cent over Mr McCain, offers a better guide to the situation. It compares [...]

GOP, McCain Inciting Violence Vs. ACORN

It’s how the right rolls.
An ACORN community organizer received a death threat and the liberal activist group’s Boston and Seattle offices were vandalized Thursday, reflecting mounting tensions over its role in registering 1.3 million mostly poor and minority Americans to vote next month.
Attorneys for the Association of Community Organizers for Reform Now were notifying the [...]

Supreme Court Rules For Ohio Secretary Of State

And remember, this is the conservative Roberts court.
The Supreme Court sided Friday with Ohio’s top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.
The justices overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio’s top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.
Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a [...]

Retreat! Retreat!

The NRSC is pulling out of Colorado. Which probably means they’re giving up on the Udall-Schaffer senate race. And they have to defend more red seats.
Love it.
UPDATE: Here’s video of Republican Bob Schaffer whining because he can’t bring notes in to a debate.

A Nation Of Dilla Freeman Burts

Unstoppable.

A month after her 100th birthday, Dilla Freeman Burt cast the first vote of her long life — for presidential candidate Barack Obama.
It’s the excitement surrounding these elections — a woman running for vice president and a black man running for president — that prompted Burt to action, said her daughter, Phyllis Burt.
‘I was feeding [...]

Sherrod Brown Reads Our Minds

A fringe benefit of an Obama win would be pointing and laughing at Fox News. Myself, if things go as planned, I plan to block out 12-3 the day after the election day to listen to Limbaugh.

At about 11:30 pm, he told the crowd, they should switch over to Fox News, the network on which [...]

The 401(k) Blues

Conservative columnist George Will hits the nail on the head
But the McCain-Palin charges have come just as the Obama campaign is benefiting from a mass mailing it is not paying for. Many millions of American households are gingerly opening envelopes containing reports of the third-quarter losses in their 401(k) and other retirement accounts — telling [...]

Election Prediction

Unlike my earlier hedge-filled predictions I made about the election, this one I make without equivocation: There will be no tie. The 269-269 electoral tie will not happen in 2008. I feel as sure as when I succesfully predicted that we wouldn’t have a brokered Democratic convention.
I’m not saying we won’t have any Florida-style suspense [...]

Current Prediction

Right off the bat, I should note that I don’t have any particularly great skill at this. But then, neither do the vast majority of the talking heads on TV.
I think there’s an 85% chance Sen. Obama will win. That’s been my number for most of the election season. Right after the 2006 election that [...]

Quinnipiac Swing State Polls

Positive movement all over for Sen. Obama
# Colorado: Obama leads 49 - 45 percent, compared to 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama August 24;
# Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 44 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent July 24;
# Minnesota: Obama leads 47 - 45 percent, compared to 46 - 44 [...]

The Palin Effect In Florida

Among a group of undecided voters the pick of Sarah Palin has moved most (grudgingly) towards Sen. Obama. I also think that Palin’s close association with the fringe of the Christian right who want war in the Middle East to bring about the rapture isn’t helping among Jewish voters. That information, combined with this video [...]

In Case You Forget “Why”

In the middle of the day to day battle and the media war, you gotta remember “why”.

Register To Vote In 2008 | Check To See If You Are Registered To Vote

Do it. DO IT.

So… Um… Jessica Alba Wants You To Vote

So she did this for the Declare Yourself voter registration drive.

Okay.

Battlegrounds 9/10/08

The newest state polls show movement for McCain, but the only one I would be concerned about is Virginia. I think just based on demographics and recent trends and the secret plan to send Marylanders to Northern VA (oh, did I say that out loud?), Obama will win Virginia, but it remains to be seen. [...]

That “Sambo” Story

I’m not going to link to it here, but Google, my email, and some comments show me a lot of people are talking about it. The story rings false to me, and is just the sort of thing like the phony “whitey” video tape story that Larry Johnson was peddling that would be whipped up [...]

The McCain Campaign Is Delusional And The NY Times Is Helping

From a New York Times article on where the campaigns are competing comes this.
Some campaign officials hope that Ms. Palin, an Alaskan, can broaden the ticket’s appeal in the Northwest, possibly gaining traction in states like Oregon and Washington, as well as shore up Mr. McCain’s standing with social conservatives who had, up to now, [...]

A Base Pick

Back before I started this blog (eight years ago), I assumed that the pundit class clearly knew more than the rest of us. They were surely tuned in, highly educated, certainly that had to be true for them to go on television and make snap interpretations of the mood of a nation as large and [...]

GOP Senate Campaign Committee Pulls Out Of New Mexico

For the ten millionth time, this election is about individual states.
Republicans’ Senate campaign arm called off television ads Tuesday that were to air in New Mexico in the run-up to Election Day, an indication that it’s leaving the GOP candidate there to fend for himself as the party braces for losses.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s [...]

The “Other” Base

As is to be expected, the mainstream media is falling all over themselves to congratulate Sarah Palin on her speech and to get first in line for the next barbecue at the McCain compound(s). The consensus - and we know just how wrong the consensus usually is - is that Palin’s speech has consolidated and [...]

South Florida Resurgent?

A lot of new Democrats registered to vote down in Dade county (Miami), especially good among hispanic voters who in South Florida tend to be Cuban and more inclined to vote GOP. I’m curious what the numbers in Florida’s other major Democratic stronghold, Broward county (Ft. Lauderdale) are like - especially since the black population [...]

Bill Clinton To Speak At Convention, Water Still Wet

I’m a little puzzled at some of the reaction I’ve seen to the news that President Clinton is going to speak at the convention. Was there any thought that he wasn’t going to? Whatever lingering bad feeling there may be from the primaries (and I count myself in that group of people who are still [...]

“Uppity Watch” Begins Now

In this campaign we are likely to see conservatives and Republicans pushing - in ways both implicit and explicit - that the problem with Sen. Obama is that he’s an uppity black who has gotten too big for his britches. Already, MSNBC’s Pat Buchanan has twice dipped his toe into those Klanesque waters.
On Morning Joe, [...]

Republicans: Run Against Republicans

Link
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told GOP congressional hopefuls on Thursday that they should not be afraid to criticize both political parties – including Republican members of the House.
During a conference call, the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman instructed candidates, campaign managers and press secretaries that given the anti-incumbent environment, it could be beneficial for House [...]

Applesauce vs. John McCain

Yeah, just a regular guy. A regular, awkward, guy.

(via)

The Summer Olympics, Brought To You By Obama

Spreading the word
Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign will be among the TV sponsors of NBC Universal’s Olympics coverage. In the first significant network-TV buy of any presidential candidate in at least 16 years, the Obama campaign has taken a $5 million package of Olympics spots that includes network TV as well as cable ads.

Advice From The Losing Team

It must be something genetic with conservatives why they are driven to offer up advice. From their side flows a never ending stream of hints and tips and tricks and tactics, and the intriguing part is it doesn’t matter what their particular political fortunes are at the moment. Now National Review has a doozy, advising [...]

More Florida Dems

You know who this is good for, right? John McCain.
Through May, Democratic voter registration in Broward County was up 6.7 percent. Republican registrations grew just 3 percent while independents rose 2.8 percent.
Democrats have posted even greater gains statewide, up 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the Republicans.

Tuesday For Change

Tuesday for Change is your weekly reminder that to get change, to elect Barack Obama, we must do our part to help.
Donate here to Sen. Obama.
Donate here to the DNC.
End the Iraq War. Fix the Economy. Save the Supreme Court. Donate today.

Deck Chair Rearrangement, Continued

Leaking this kind of thing to the New York Times before the campaign has even ramped up is not a good sign for John McCain, almost as bad as the campaign reorganization that prompted the story in the first place.
The shift was approved by Mr. McCain after several of his aides, including Mr. Schmidt, went [...]

Deck Chair Rearrangement Watch

John McCain has again shifted around who is in charge of his campaign. Anyone notice that through the Clinton and McCain shakeups the Obama camp has kept its head down and is being run smooth as silk?
UPDATE: Josh Marshall has more detail on why this is a bad sign for McCain. They’re scrapping everything and [...]

Veering Toward “The Center”?

Folks complaining that Sen. Obama is now moving to the center would have more room to speak if he hadn’t been at the center all this time. I saw a similar thing happen with Howard Dean (someone whose candidacy I supported). Dean was a centrist governor, even praised by the NRA, who happened to be [...]

Tuesday For Change

Tuesday for Change is your weekly reminder that to get change, to elect Barack Obama, we must do our part to help.
Donate here to Sen. Obama.
Donate here to the DNC.
End the Iraq War. Fix the Economy. Save the Supreme Court. Donate today.

Who Won The Day? Who Won The Week?

Of all the stupid things related to political coverage that I hate, this is at the top of the list. It is the simplification of politics to the point of a WWE match. Except it doesn’t work that way. The only real win-loss moments are election days, everything else is conjecture by jackasses.

Swiftboaters On McCain Campaign

Lying down with fleas, etc.
But one McCain supporter, retired Col. Bud Day, who was held prisoner with McCain in Vietnam, said the attacks on McCain were nothing like the swift boat attacks. He helped produce those attacks against Kerry, which were true, he said. The attacks against McCain are not, he added.
‘The swift boat, quote, [...]

“Pro Clinton” PUMA Group Is Republican Front

Soooo not surprised. (via)

Mitt Romney Is The Leader In McCain’s Veepstakes?

Sweet.

GOP Waaaahmbulance Is GO!

I’ve got two responses to the right clutching their pearls and fainting because a few people think that while honorable, John McCain’s military service isn’t the end-all and be-all of why he should be commander-in-chief.

KTHXBI.

Big Bad John Cornyn

Democrat Rick Noriega deflates Cornyn, who once said he could sympathize with people who kill judges.

Al Franken’s Problem

In the same poll that shows Sen. Obama with a 17 point lead in Minnesota, Al Franken is 10 points behind Norm Coleman. I’ve never been super wild about the Franken run (I don’t like entertainers and other media folks running for office most of the time), but I’m even less so now. Maybe he [...]

Their Brand In Crisis

How bad is the Republican brand, and by extension, John McCain’s brand? Oregon’s Gordon Smith, in one of the most endangered Senate seats, has a new ad touting a purported connection to a presidential candidate…
… Barack Obama.

Sen Obama issued a statement making clear where he stands:
“Barack Obama has a long record of bipartisan accomplishment and [...]

McCain (Relatively) Weak In Utah

In 2004, Bush crushed Kerry in Utah - the most reliably red state - by 71% to 26%. Utah will probably always be Republican until the Rapture, but it’s worth noting that McCain leads Obama there by 19%.
A 19% lead in Utah is pretty bad for a Republican presidential candidate - especially one from the [...]

More Proof Karl Rove Is An idiot

Long time readers know that I have consistently said Karl Rove doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. The myth of him being a political wunderkind is just that - a myth. There are millions in the real world who could do a better job than he did, because they deal in the real [...]

Tails I Win, Heads You Lose Of The Century

Scaife’s Tribune-Review opines that the 15% lead for Sen. Obama in that Newsweek poll is a clear sign of doom for the Obama campaign.
Up next: Why that Eli Manning touchdown drive in the Super Bowl may not lead to the Lombardi.
Also: The Celtics win game four… but have they really “won”?

Optics Matter

From today’s Hardball. On the left, Danny Diaz of the RNC. On the right, Karen Finney of the DNC.

Perhaps you shave before you come on tv, hmmm Danny?

15% Lead?

I’m not sure I believe this Newsweek poll showing Obama with a 15% lead. Frankly I think the number is really closer to the 4-6 range, though I like that historically this same poll had Kerry up 6 and even for Gore, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility. In any case, I’d rather [...]

Marketing 101

Jeralyn of Talkleft:
He doesn’t need to do this. We all know who he is and that he stands for hope and change and bringing a new kind of politics to Washington.
She’s objecting to an idea floated for Sen. Obama to run ads during the Olympics. But the problem with what Jeralyn is saying here is [...]

McCain’s America?

Right now John McCain is doing a “town hall” meeting being broadcast by Fox News (The Official Network of McCain ‘08, Home Of The Terrorist Fist Bump) and it’s a mighty amazing trick the McCain camp is pulling. Somehow they’ve gone to the most diverse city in America (New York City) and are seemingly unable [...]

Bobby Jindal: The Exorcist

The power of blog compels you. The power of blog compels you.
Of course, if McCain picks Jindal as his running mate, who will protect Louisiana from the zombies?
People don’t think these things through.

Forward, Not Back

Upcoming NBC/WSJ poll seems to confirm what we’ve known to be true of America.
Asked to respond to two statements, 59% of voters said they believed “This is a time to have a president who will focus on progress and help move America forward,” while 37% of voters favored the statement, “This is a time to [...]

An Obama Vice Presidency

So as Sen. Obama searches for his running mate, one of the things to consider is what role will the vice presidency play under Obama? Right now the vice president is a nutjob. Cheney has essentially been a co-presidency, and in some cases perhaps wielding more power than the president himself. This is a guy [...]

Lindsey Graham: McCain Economics Are A Third Bush Term

I find it astonishing that John McCain thinks that we should just follow along with President Bush’s economic policies. But I guess when you’re the candidate of same-old same-old you shouldn’t expect much.
In this clip, McCain surrogate/advisor Lindsey Graham explains to us that McCain’s policies will be an “extension and enhancement” of Bush.

McCain is so [...]

I Do This Because You Are Dumb

Newsbusters’ Noel Sheppard: “Republicans face more scrutiny on race than Democrats.”
Me: “Yes!”
In the language of law enforcement, you round up the usual suspects.

For A Laugh

Check out this interactive infographic from the NY Times on how various demographics voted during the primaries. Then click “Blacks”. Hehehe.

More GOP Fail

Their candidate who was going to lose versus Sen. Kerry couldn’t get enough signatures to make it on the ballot.
I don’t know about you, but I love the new, more incompetent GOP.

Missouri 6/5

The race is now a tie, with Democratic voters coming back to the fold and Obama leading with Independents.

Hispanic Vote Slip Sliding Away

In 2004, Hispanic voters went 55-44 (I’ve been informed the correct number is 40%) for John Kerry. Apparently unsatisfied with this historically good performance among this growing segment of voters, the Republicans decided to become the party of attacking hispanics, of trumping up as much noise as possible about a hispanic invasion that would threaten [...]

No Matter What Happens, This Moment Can’t Be Taken Away

Many Blacks Find Joy in Unexpected Breakthrough
Kwabena Sam-Brew, a 38-year-old immigrant from Ghana, doubted that Nana, his 5-year-old American-born daughter, would remember the rally that effectively crowned Senator Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee Tuesday night.
But Mr. Sam-Brew said he would describe it to her: “I will tell her, ‘Tonight is the night that all [...]

Veepwatch Episode 1

Is there any reason Obama shouldn’t pick Gen. Wes Clark? Older, white, southern, tons of military experience, media experience since 2004 as analyst for Fox/MSNBC, a Clintonista.
On my mock draft I have him going first.
Clinton: Brings her supporters and helps with women, but has baggage.
Edwards: Already said he doesn’t want it, but he fits [...]

It’s Like The Moon Landing

When Obama clinched the nomination I called my Mom up to tell her the good news. And she is ecstatic. Jamaica is its own country with its own problems, big and small. And they know this is a big deal. As I spoke to her she opened up her front door and yelled out into [...]