OliverWillis.com | Forum | News | Research | Celebrity Pictures | Liberal T-Shirts
Soon This Will End
Intriguing Daily Kos diary theorizing that Sen. Obama has over-performed the polls by an average of 8% where Sen. Clinton has more or less kept her percentage.
Tomorrow this won't matter.
1 Comments
Leave a comment
About this Entry
This page contains a single entry by Oliver Willis published on March 3, 2008 8:24 PM.
McCain Supporter John Hagee Promoted "Slave Sale" was the previous entry in this blog.
Experience Vs. Judgement, Round 700 is the next entry in this blog.
Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.
Disclaimer
The views on this site are mine and mine alone, they do not reflect the views of my employer, Media Matters for America
Most analysts attribute Obama's "over-performance" to a flawed turnout model. He simply has inspired more people to turn out and vote in primaries, and a lot of them have been disaffected Republicans and independents in states with open primaries and caucuses.
When you look at strictly Democratic voters, the picture changes.
Then Senator Clinton holds a slight advantage or is even-steven.
Interesting question: How much of Obama's turnout in the primaries will still turn out for Obama in a General? No one seems able to answer that one, especially when you factor in the anecdotal evidence that many votes were cast anti-Hillary rather than pro-Obama.