Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4-6. It doesn't matter.

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
4. Giuliani
5+. It doesn't matter.

A lot of Obama's support comes from people who would be voting in their first primary and history has shown that these people are the least likely to actually show up. Also, Clinton's support is the most solid and it will be nearly impossible to steal a few votes away from her. For that matter, I think Richardson could push his supporters to Clinton in the second round hoping to get the V.P. gig and that might be enough for her to finish first.

Thompson has gone all in in Iowa, and he has just enough left in him to pull off a very close third place. However, this could be wishful thinking on my part. Confirmation bias says that you will find the evidence that supports your position and if Giuliani comes in fourth, he's finished. There's only three tickets out of Iowa, and only two out of New Hampshire. If he finishes fourth here, he'll finish no better than third in New Hampshire, and will be gone by February 5th.

My guess:

Dems:
1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama (His "enthusiastic support" is young. As Howard Dean learned, this means that they will get totally owned during the caucus process).
4. Dodd (assumes that he actually has to filibuster telcom immunity, as Reid appears to be insisting.

My hope:
1. Edwards
2. Dodd
3. Clinton
4. Obama (he lost me after he went for gay baiting, and his continual sister soljah stuff with liberals is repulsive. Also, he's never run a competitive campaign against a Rethug. His tough races have all been in primaries, against Democrats)

Dems:
1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama

My hope:
1) Edwards
2) Dodd
3) Kucinich

And the Republicans are losers

Democrats

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden

Iowa caucusers follow the game pretty closely, and are, if anything, overly focused on 'electibility'. At the end of the day, Edwards going with public funds, putting all his chips on Iowa, the Iraq vote (explained or not) and the fact that his time was last time will resonate with a percentage of his voters. He can't, and won't, get the nomination.

What does an Iowa caucus-goer with that mindset (I'm betting as much as 1/3 of Edwards' support) do next? Go fully symbolic and vote for Biden? Maybe a few. The rest are not going to Hilary. They will almost all belong to Obama.

The key is, who's next, and how close. If I'm right, that still leaves Hilary close. If not (if Obama wins by more than 7-8%), it's huge momentum for Obama.

Matthew G., I get your point, but I think you're punishing what is, at the end of the day, pretty mundane political pandering. In a perfect world, but this ain't that.

On the R's, I think Oliver has it exactly correct.

For what it's worth:

Dem
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Rep
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani

Who's still in the race a month from now?

My prediction is identical to OW's. NH may break for Edwards if he wins Iowa, otherwise Obama noses Clinton out because of Bill Shaheen. If Obama wins NH, Edwards will be second, despite what the polls say because too many are still undecided.

In NV, I think it will be, if the Culinary Union breaks for Edwards (we'll know in a couple of weeks):

1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama

SC is anyone's guess. Depends on what happens in the first three.

I hope you are right.

The Democrats need to get over this compulsion to nominate sitting US Senators.

Sitting US Senators DO NOT get elected President.

The Republicans will likely nominate either a Governor or former Governor or a former Mayor.

Mayors and Governors beat sitting Senators.

Edwards and Richardson are the only choices the Democrats should be considering. Clinton and Obama will not beat Huckabee or Romney. Guiliani being a cross-dresser from New York throws in a variable.

I'm shocked at all you guys rating Edwards so highly in Iowa! Not that I would mind -- I'd be pretty damn happy with Edwards as our nominee -- but the polls don't look so great. I'm going to play it safe from looking at the trendlines and say:

Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Huckabee
Romney
Ron Paul!

"Mayors and Governors beat sitting Senators."

Really? When was the last time a Mayor won it all?

1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Keyes

Just kidding on that last one!

I think Huckabee's going to get hammered over the holidays (sad for a Christian leader) most especially by his own party's establishment types, and this will tilt things a bit. I heard it myself on right wing talk radio in Milwaukee this morning, which is supposed to be a populist conservative medium. What is Limbaugh saying about Huckabee?

Huckabee's too low class for the GOP establishment. He's got a lock on the VP slot, though, you've gotta admit.

I figured Huck for VP back in September, while making fun of a friend's donation to Sam "Who?" Brownback.

Of course, I also figured Giuliani v. Clinton, and both (thankfully) are looking much less clear.

Still, in Iowa:

Dem:

1. Obama (he's increasingly deserving of it)
2. Clinton (increasingly not deserving of it)
3. Edwards (only because he's not likely to meet the viability cutoff in some cases, and will siphon either to Obama or Richardson evenly)
4. Richardson (VP for any of the above)
5. Alas, no one cares. Too bad - as loony as Kucinich and Gravel can be, they're better than half the GOP field. Biden and Dodd definitely better than all of the following list.

Rep.

1. Huckabee (who I agree will be sabotaged before the nomination - or, given this is a brokered convention most likely, they'll kill him there. Still VP though.)
2. Romney (alas, now the most likely GOP nominee)
3. Thompson (who'll be a non-entity from that point, hopefully.)
4. Giuliani (even if he retools and actually gives a shit about Iowa, Iowa likely won't return the favour...)
5. RON PAUL OMFG WE GOT A BLIMP LOLOLOL!!1! (Beats Giuliani if blimp tours all 99 counties by then. I mean, he's batshit crazy - and has a freaking blimp. How can you not vote for this guy?)

"1. Huckabee (who I agree will be sabotaged before the nomination - or, given this is a brokered convention most likely, they'll kill him there. Still VP though.)
2. Romney (alas, now the most likely GOP nominee)"

If Romney wins, I don't think he's going to invite Huckabee to be his running mate. Huckabee attack his religion and I don't think Romney will forgive that fast.

I think Romney and Huckabee will trade wins for the first several states with the rest falling out of contention. By the time February 5th rolls around, Huckabee will be broke and Romney will win it.

Huckabee isn't getting enough money because his base are the religious working class. Those who can't give a lot of money. The corporate donors don't like his tax policies while the powerful Christian Elites don't think he can win and they care more about power than anything written in the Bible.

Everyone likes to claim they were the first to predict an upset, but the favorites are favored for a reason. Therefore:

Dems:
1) Clinton
2) Obama
3) Edwards (virtually tied with Obama)
4) The Rest

GOP:
1) Romney
2) McCain
3) Huck
4) The Dropouts

"Everyone likes to claim they were the first to predict an upset, but the favorites are favored for a reason."

I think Edwards will do better for two reasons...

1.) His supporters are more likely to have voted in the past, and that is a huge indicator that they will vote in the future.
2.) He is well know throughout the state and that will help him with the weirdness of the Iowa primary. Remember, this is like the Senate, each county has the same voting power regardless of the population in it.

On the other hand, Obama's support comes mostly from first time voters in large cities, this hurts him twice.