The conventional wisdom, right now, is that health care reform won’t pass in the senate.
Previously the CW was
Health care reform couldn’t pass the House
Obama couldn’t beat Clinton for the nomination
Democrats couldn’t take back the House and the Senate in 2006
America wouldn’t elect a Catholic president
Dewey had Truman beat
The allies couldn’t defeat the Nazis
No way the colonists could defeat the British Empire.
Sometimes the CW is wrong.
The examples demonstrate so clearly why one must not allow oneself to be limited by “Conventional Wisdom.”
That was the first thing I saw when I turned on my computer this morning: the AP declaring health care reform completely dead.
Maybe it really is dead; I don’t know. But I’m sure as hell not going to take the word of the AP, which spent last summer insisting that Hillary Clinton was a viable candidate long past the point where it became mathematically impossible for her to win.
This is the same media that declared the public option dead only to have it pass Saturday night.
The village is consistently wrong and they’re gonna look like fools when all’s said and done.
Ozzie, dude, Intrade has a contract for a government run health plan (public option) trading last at 10.0.
Blow everyone here away and buy some of those cheap contracts for what you seem so sure is going to be a $100 payoff and you can ten times your money. Heck, if you’re savvy you can improve the 6.5 current bid price to 7.0 and then if someone hits your bid, a 100.0 payoff gets you a George Soros-like 1400% return on your investment. Sure as heck beats the hell out of blogging about your convictions, doesn’t it?
Do you work for intrade? Why do you keep bringing it up? Seriously, intrade is a scam of epic proportions. Everytime you use it as an argument it’s like someone telling me what Amway thinks of the current political climate.
It’s about all Dennis has got until Rush issues the next talking point. I wonder what it’ll be.
The fact of the matter is, MOH, that if you were confident if this bill was going take effect, why not make some money off it? It doesn’t mean there’s only a 10% or less chance of it happening, it’s just one indicator of how people who are putting up their own money think.
I might think the 2 1/2 point spread that the Steelers are giving the Broncos tonight is way too small because of the Steelers unbelievable record on MNF and the fact they’ve had a bye week to prepare for it. I could sit here and crow about it all day long that the Steelers will win by over a TD, but if I was so sure, I’d call up a friend and lay down a thousand bucks on the Black and Gold to cover the 2 1/2. Turns out, I don’t feel that confident.
In my case, I only get back my money and what I bet. With you, if you’re right, you get your money and ten times that back. There are people willing to pay you ten times your money for convictions- why not take advantage of them?
Are you confident about:
Because I’m wagering you got that one wrong.
Trust me. Dennis will take any stupid, childish bet if he thinks you’re challenging his manhood.
Because, as I said, InTrade is a scam. InTrade also had high numbers of Ron Paul becoming the Republican nominee in 2008. The reason that InTrade is a scam is because their is no real way to jump out of an investment and without the ability to liquidize it has less bearing to a stock market and more of a betting among friends where someone else holds your money and gets the interest.
The fact that you’d be suckered by something like InTrade does not surprise me.
I have to admit, if it does pass the Senate in a non-shitty form I’ll find it a pleasant surprise of Giants-beating-the-Patriots proportions.
Best Super Bowl ever, IMO, Parthy. Excellent analogy…..if you were looking at it from the half-way point of that season.
Our Pal Conventional Wisdom takes another blow today:
LA Times:
Healthcare bill’s tough sell in the House signals tougher fight ahead
More botox, please.
More words you’ll have to eat, Dennis. Aren’t you full yet? Even Hannity sounds a LITTLE concerned.
Intrade also said the House bill wouldn’t pass, like it just fucking, you know, passed.