Our Pal Conventional Wisdom

10:22 am EST November 9th, 2009 | News | 16 Comments

The conventional wisdom, right now, is that health care reform won’t pass in the senate.

Previously the CW was

Health care reform couldn’t pass the House
Obama couldn’t beat Clinton for the nomination
Democrats couldn’t take back the House and the Senate in 2006
America wouldn’t elect a Catholic president
Dewey had Truman beat
The allies couldn’t defeat the Nazis
No way the colonists could defeat the British Empire.

Sometimes the CW is wrong.

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16 Responses to “Our Pal Conventional Wisdom”

  1. Jamaicafest says:
    November 9, 2009 at 10:39 am

    The examples demonstrate so clearly why one must not allow oneself to be limited by “Conventional Wisdom.”

  2. steve says:
    November 9, 2009 at 11:40 am

    That was the first thing I saw when I turned on my computer this morning: the AP declaring health care reform completely dead.

    Maybe it really is dead; I don’t know. But I’m sure as hell not going to take the word of the AP, which spent last summer insisting that Hillary Clinton was a viable candidate long past the point where it became mathematically impossible for her to win.

  3. Matt Osborne says:
    November 9, 2009 at 11:48 am

    This is the same media that declared the public option dead only to have it pass Saturday night.

    The village is consistently wrong and they’re gonna look like fools when all’s said and done.

  4. Dennis says:
    November 9, 2009 at 12:05 pm

    Ozzie, dude, Intrade has a contract for a government run health plan (public option) trading last at 10.0.

    Blow everyone here away and buy some of those cheap contracts for what you seem so sure is going to be a $100 payoff and you can ten times your money. Heck, if you’re savvy you can improve the 6.5 current bid price to 7.0 and then if someone hits your bid, a 100.0 payoff gets you a George Soros-like 1400% return on your investment. Sure as heck beats the hell out of blogging about your convictions, doesn’t it?

  5. Michael Over Here says:
    November 9, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Do you work for intrade? Why do you keep bringing it up? Seriously, intrade is a scam of epic proportions. Everytime you use it as an argument it’s like someone telling me what Amway thinks of the current political climate.

  6. Indeed says:
    November 9, 2009 at 1:45 pm

    It’s about all Dennis has got until Rush issues the next talking point. I wonder what it’ll be.

  7. Dennis says:
    November 9, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    The fact of the matter is, MOH, that if you were confident if this bill was going take effect, why not make some money off it? It doesn’t mean there’s only a 10% or less chance of it happening, it’s just one indicator of how people who are putting up their own money think.

    I might think the 2 1/2 point spread that the Steelers are giving the Broncos tonight is way too small because of the Steelers unbelievable record on MNF and the fact they’ve had a bye week to prepare for it. I could sit here and crow about it all day long that the Steelers will win by over a TD, but if I was so sure, I’d call up a friend and lay down a thousand bucks on the Black and Gold to cover the 2 1/2. Turns out, I don’t feel that confident.

    In my case, I only get back my money and what I bet. With you, if you’re right, you get your money and ten times that back. There are people willing to pay you ten times your money for convictions- why not take advantage of them?

  8. Indeed says:
    November 9, 2009 at 2:07 pm

    Are you confident about:

    Nice touch by Capra casting Mr. Potter in a wheelchair in a lame attempt to make him appear even more evil and scary. As if stealing $8,000 and trying to run the only bank competition in the town wasn’t evil enough, he had to make him a cripple, too.

    “Sorry about the derogatory stereotype, all you handicapped people. ‘Hey it’s just a movie’. And he was a conservative, too, so what’s the big deal?”

    Because I’m wagering you got that one wrong.

  9. fafaroo says:
    November 9, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    Trust me. Dennis will take any stupid, childish bet if he thinks you’re challenging his manhood.

  10. Parthenon says:
    November 9, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    I have to admit, if it does pass the Senate in a non-shitty form I’ll find it a pleasant surprise of Giants-beating-the-Patriots proportions.

  11. Dennis says:
    November 9, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Best Super Bowl ever, IMO, Parthy. Excellent analogy…..if you were looking at it from the half-way point of that season.

  12. Indeed says:
    November 9, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    [Barrymore] [a]cted from wheelchair from 1938 due to the effects of arthritis and hip injury.

  13. Dennis says:
    November 9, 2009 at 5:14 pm

    Our Pal Conventional Wisdom takes another blow today:

    LA Times:

    Healthcare bill’s tough sell in the House signals tougher fight ahead

    The compromises Democrats had to make, the narrow victory and the changed political climate all point to the challenges Obama’s push for health insurance reform will now face in the Senate.

    More botox, please.

  14. isms says:
    November 9, 2009 at 5:38 pm

    More words you’ll have to eat, Dennis. Aren’t you full yet? Even Hannity sounds a LITTLE concerned.

  15. Jaim says:
    November 9, 2009 at 7:14 pm

    Intrade also said the House bill wouldn’t pass, like it just fucking, you know, passed.

  16. Michael Over Here says:
    November 9, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    Because, as I said, InTrade is a scam. InTrade also had high numbers of Ron Paul becoming the Republican nominee in 2008. The reason that InTrade is a scam is because their is no real way to jump out of an investment and without the ability to liquidize it has less bearing to a stock market and more of a betting among friends where someone else holds your money and gets the interest.

    The fact that you’d be suckered by something like InTrade does not surprise me.