Dede Scozzafava’s decision to endorse the Democrat and not the far-right Conservative party candidate in NY-23 will probably not help Bill Owens, who was a long shot to win a +30 Republican seat. But it tells you what you need to know about the current Republican party.
They are purging those who do not march in lockstep with their core identity, and while in some instances there is is the need for some idealogical cohesion (witness the ongoing ill-feelings between moderate and progressive Dems like myself versus the conservative Democrats), the Republicans don’t have the elasticity the Dems currently do. As I said numerous times before electoral success in 2006 and 2008, first you get the majority then you go for a more cohesive idealogical movement. The Democrats have the kind of wiggle room right now where if we lost some of those conservative Dems in the House, it would probably produce a net improvement in the legislation the body produces — and the leadership would remain the same.
The Republicans and the conservative movement, led by such bright bulbs as Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, and Rush Limbaugh, are whittling down a base that already is the minority of Americans. In a time where American parties should be expanding the GOP is contracting. They show no interest in moderation, racial inclusivity, or movement on gender issues.
In the past I and other progressives supported candidates that in normal circumstances would make us roll our eyes. Why? For a change, the left was playing the long game. Every Stephanie Herseth or Heath Shuler you elected was one step closer to a Speaker Pelosi. Every Bob Casey was a step towards Leader Reid (and while the outcome of that fight is less than ideal, Reid is still preferable to the Mitch McConnells of the world).
Like every one of their “policy” positions, conservatives are supporting the quick fix. Sure, purging the party feels good to them, but a the end of the day they just push more away.
Which can only mean one thing: Sarah Palin 2012.
Please?
“Which can only mean one thing: Sarah Palin 2012.”
I was half-joking last year leading up to Obama’s victory that the GOP as we know it was due for a split between the small government-anti tax guys (formerly known as Rockefeller Republicans) and the hardcore fundies-social conservatives. With the transition of the radical right fringe to the very core of the GOP (birthers, anti-American extremists calling for secession, simple racists, etc.) I think we could very well have some sort of a third-party challenge in 2012.
Of course, I used to think it would be an establishment GOP guy like Romney getting the nomination, then Palin running as a third-party head. But honestly now, I’m thinking the GOP has been fully co-opted by the crazies. Palin might likely get the GOP nod, and we’ll see some sort of third party move by a Romney or a Pawlenty or a Gingrich.
Think about it: Newt f’ing Gingrich is now considered to be a liberal by the Republican base. This women in NY, endorsed by the mother-loving NRA, couldn’t even finish out the race.
And I couldn’t be any happier to see the death of the conservative movement and the GOP simultaneously.
Palin will not be the nominee in 2012. Not only because she wouldn’t win, she doesn’t even want it. She just wants all the money any sucker will give her, hence why she bailed on a measly state salary when there were millions to be made on the lecture circuit.
I would hate to see the seat go to a hard-right conservative (though given it’s been a GOP seat since the Civil War it’ll hardly be a major loss) but it might be really awesome if this motivates conservatives to waste their time and money on an army of aspiring mini-Palins.
The Cook Partisan Voting Index for NY-23 is R+1 (average of previous two presidential elections compared to national percentages.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York’s_23rd_congressional_district
Christie 47, Corzine 41
Wow.
McDonnell 53, Deeds 41
I still think Corzine will win. And let’s say the Dems lose both races, you know that on Wednesday morning that Obama is still President? He doesn’t step down, despite your hopes and dreams
Makes Bluedogs think a little harder, though. Would be a pretty clear message that the liberal hopes of a country moving left was never really true.
No, this will just be proof of Oliver’s point.
Sure, in the short term we have voters that are diallusioned with President Obama but once Healthcare reform passes and he checks off other things on the checklist then people will see the GOP for what they are.
Having the two Dems lose may prove beneficial in the long run.
The Great Purge will accelerate.
Two or three victories do not a takeback by the Republican side make, despite your best hopes, Dennis.
That’s exactly what Republicans said in 2005. How’d that turn out?
No one said they did, Dark Avenger. Despite what you best hopes were for Hope and Change, if these numbers hold true, that lame campaign mantra will be officially shelved.
It was such a lame campaign mantra (and it was more than that, despite GOP history revision attempts) it kicked the GOP’s ass.
A year ago, it did. Today, not so much.
Too early to tell, though; Obama may still be able to pull it out tomorrow. We’ll see.
Approval in the low to mid 50s, the Bush recession is over, our diplomacy has been reset to something resembling normal, on the precipice of health care reform. I’m okay with it so far.
You have a job, though, Oliver; of course you’re fine so far. A whole lot of other people aren’t so lucky in that regard.
And the jury is still out on just how well that reset button has been set regarding diplomacy.
The sudden conservative concern for the jobless is noted and humorous.
As soon as a Conservanut is reelected they will forget about jobs and talk about abortion, guns, and big tanks again.
Sudden? It was at 4-6% for the whole Bush term, so yeah, 10% with no end in sight is a bit disconcerting, since it means houses don’t get sold for a long time, commercial real estate stays boarded up for a lot longer, and deficits likely continue to grow.
Other than that, let the good times roll, right?
Obama isn’t running for Governor, genius. This election isn’t some referendum on him or his government, despite all your efforts to make it seem like it is.
Despite what you best hopes were for Hope and Change, if these numbers hold true, that lame campaign mantra will be officially shelved.
Like this lame campaign mantra?:
“However they put it, the Democrat approach in Iraq comes down to this: The terrorists win and America loses,”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/30/AR2006103000530.html
Good point.
My only comment on the Scofizozafazzo (sorry I have totally given up trying to spell or pronounce that name) campaign and the teabgger Gestapo hate-fest against is as follows:
What TBOGG said.
Wait, Rheinhard. A preacher who hopes Obama gets cancer is inciting murder and giving a signal to would-be assassins to do their thing according to the peanut gallery here; but your hoping a woman meets a violent end at the hands of her kids is just a normal liberal comment post that’s ok because it makes the world a better place.
Got it.
He’s not hoping for such an outcome, he’s predicting it, and the kids probably will be too disabled like their father to be able to do anything but spell out “KILL MAMA” in their Play Doh.
Precisely, DA. I don’t see where
[i]Michelle Malkin really seems to have no concept of either karma or revenge. [b]Some day[/b] she is going to be the most surprised person in the room when her kids go all Menendez brothers on her ass.[/i]
Apparently Dennis has a special kind of dyslexia that translates “Some day” as “I hope”.
But the first sentence is one of the most straightforward and transparently true statements I’ve read in a while. MM, leave us not forget, is the woman who posted personal contact information for college students for their having committed the crime of advocating a position on campus military recruitment she didn’t like; resulting in the students getting loads of hate mail and death threats from her personal brigage of flying monkeys. When asked to please remove the home phone numbers and call of the monkeys, her reaction amounted to “Hahaha! Screw you libtards, I’m posting them AGAIN!” Afterwards she then had the complete lack of awareness to be not only surprised but OUTRAGED! that some mean liberals posted HER personal contact info for all to see.
All of a piece with TBOGG’s observation. She and her monkeys spent weeks not merely debating GOP policy, but outright demonizing Scozzafazza as a godless, socialist, baby-killing traitor, and then again have the audacity to be surprised when she drops out and exhibits a less than total subservience to people who spent the last month kicking her in the crotch.
Deeds ran a sucky campaign. Corzine has a checkered past to say the least (although I think he’s still going to win). An Owens win would just be kind of amazing — first Dem in that seat since the Civil War. But a Hoffman win would be even better. The birthers will start forcing safe incumbents to primary. Good times.