Patrick Ruffini predicts the 2010 election: “Prepare for a Blowout“.
My prediction so far is that the GOP will pick up a few seats in the House next year, but nothing to seriously affect the balance of power. What people – especially on the right – fail to notice, regularly, is that a good portion of dissatisfaction with congress comes from many in the electorate believing it isn’t being progressive enough and not from some misplaced teabaggery.
Flashback
Patrick Ruffini 9/18/2008: “Yes, Obama Turning Down Public Financing is Still an Epic Mistake”
10/18/08: Obama Shatters Fundraising Record
I think the GOP will retake a few of the low-hanging fruits in House districts, but the Democrats will pick up even more Senate seats in 2010, bringing them to 62 or more. So they’ll basically have huge, usable majorities in both.
Look, the GOP’s going to apply the Palin Debate Principle to any remote success in 2010: if they gain a single congressional seat, it’s a “Striking blow to the Democrats” the way they think Palin “won” her debate with Biden because she didn’t shit herself on camera.
The GOP always has these optimistic predictions of big wins.
You may recall the “six year itch” theory in 1998 which was supposed to make big Republican gains a sure thing.
Instead, there was no net gain in the Senate, and they lost five House seats.
Or the big predictions of Republican success in 2006. They lost 31 House seats and six Senate seats.
There is no “downside” whatsoever for Republicans in making excessively optimistic predictions. Nobody is ever going to call Michael Novak to account for his prediction before the 2006 elections that “The Left is going to lose – big”, for example.
This is because what passes for “analysis” on the Right is what is normally considered “cheer-leading” in the real world. Ask a cheerleader before the game which team will win; they will say that their team will. Is this based on an analysis on strengths and weaknesses, superior plays, depth of the bench, etc? No. Their team will win because “we’ve got the spirit” or whatever.
The “favourables” for the Republican Party are at their lowest in my adult lifetime; lower than those of the Democrats in 1994. Lower than in the 2006 and 2008 elections. Now, people generally don’t vote for a Party; they vote for a specific candidate. And those “favourables” are national figures, not local. But the notion that America is ready to embrace the Republican Party is not borne out by numbers.
“Birthers, get to the polls!”-Patrick Ruffini-Patrick Ruffini
Well, the GOP would have to gain 40 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate, in order to regain control of both. The chances of the former are pretty remote, and the chances of the latter are pretty non-existent. “Striking distance” would presumably be more than half of that margin–21 seats in the House, 6 in the Senate. I think they’ll fall short of that in the House, and they’ll probably lose more seats in the Senate. If the economy starts coming on strong in the second half of 2010, and the health care reform proves to be popular, we could even see a “hold” in the House and a big pickup in the Senate.
Just remember, we are desperately afraid of 2010.
If the economy starts coming on strong in the second half of 2010, and the health care reform proves to be popular
I could make a ham sandwich, if I had some bread.
That is some twofer you are dreaming of !!
And Todd calls Republicans dreamers.
You know why the Democrats will lose seats in 2010? Because the circular firing squad is already forming:
1) Lots of federal bucks flying around where local crooks get caught stealing them (that helps the Republicans at the national level, even if the thieves are Republicans)
2) Lots of fake currency chasing useless products (federally financed “make-work”) = inflation. That hurts – and quickly
3) Bureaucrats making medical decisions = “We’re all benefit recipients now” and “We are all on HMO’s now”
HMO’s = “Hello, I am doctor _______. I will be a doctor for you this day. I was a doctor in my native land, where I never spoke English.”
we could even see a “hold” in the House and a big pickup in the Senate.
I didn’t know you lefties still smoked hash.
Hey Frank, you remember how you said we were gonna lose in 2006 and 2008?
You remember how Terry McCaullife said Kerry was a lock in 2004?
Predictions from political hacks (like you, me, August, JayTea, McCaullife, Carville, Hannity, et.al.) are worthless because they’re usually nothing more than a GOTV tool.
As for who’ll win in 2010, I haven’t a clue. Though I’d hasten to guess that the 2009 gubenatorial races in NJ & VA will serve as canaries in the coal mine, both of which Republicans seem to be leading at the moment.
GOP is almost guaranteed to pick up seats. Balance of power is out of whack for the Dems, just like it was for the R’s in 2005-07. I expect some pretty substantial pickups. Depending on the economy they could be massive gains.
Hey Oliver , remember how you blogged the other day about Tawana Brawley?
Carter was an easy win in 1976; and “Barack Notbush” could have won if he really was born in Africa.
But I will be the first to admit he has really done nothing wrong yet, because he ain’t done nothin’ yet!
He’ll be lucky if they don’t ship him off to St, Elizabeth’s by 2012 , poor guy .
Frank, until the GOP can come up with a viable, reasonably-good candidate, Obama is a massive favorite to win the Presidency again in 2012. Your problem is that you have a complete dearth of competent, intelligent, thoughtful, experienced people on your side of the aisle. Who’s your candidate, Frank?
Sarah Palin? Ha! I could run against her for national office and win.
Mitt Romney? Maybe your best option, but the base of your party cannot get over the fact that he’s a Mormon that supported abortion rights.
John McCain? He’ll be 107 years old in 2012.
Bobby Jindal? He’s likely too young. And besides that, he’s also a platitude-spouting no-nothing hack who talks like Kenneth the Page.
Mark Sanford? Um… nope. Not any more.
Also:
““Hello, I am doctor _______. I will be a doctor for you this day. I was a doctor in my native land, where I never spoke English.””
Speaking English isn’t a prerequisite to being a good doctor, Frank. You xenophobic piece of shit. Why do you hate foreigners?
Political predictions this far out are like predicting the 2009 Super Bowl winner. A waste of time…………..
Hey joaquin, the Steelers won the 2009 Super Bowl. I am awesome at prediction.
But anyway, I’m not predicting much with respect to the political landscape 3 years from now. All I’m saying is that you Republicans need to step up and field a decent candidate, which hasn’t seemed to materialize yet. It’s not so much a prediction as a complete statement of fact. Obama will easily win an election against any of the hypocrites and morons that I list above.
I’m sure the Republicans will find someone. God knows there is plenty for them to run against.
If not, and Obama doesn’t continue to royally screw-up, then Obama is the favorite.
mamboduck: You elitist, arrogant fuck!
When I get into an ambulance with an oxygen tank attached to me, because I nearly stopped breathing ( which I did just yesterday ), I like the people who are responsible for my life to speak the SAME LANGUAGE AS I DO…
and each other, you horse’s ass.
BTW, asshat, where I live, I am the foreigner
I’ll bet where you live , everyone is lily white, and they’ve been speaking English since their ancestors came over in the Mayflower.
Let’s look at President Notbush by summer 2011
Financial disaster reduced to bullshit numbers – everybody is feeling the pain, but with MSM in the tank for the Messiah they are hiding it.
Every country that “hated us” in 2008 has spit on us by then , and now countries that people can’t find on a map, hate us.
Yet he will be touted by the “unbiased” MSM as plenty hard to beat and no good Republican prospects on hand …
But there will be one : Candidate Nobama
And people will wonder if Barack Obama was born in the United States, simply because no American could do that much damage, even by accident, to his own country.
What will his campaign slogan be ?
“I am too better than Carter was!”
Frank, that’s funny! Candidate Nobama!
Actually, if you sit back a take a close look, it wouldn’t be too hard to run against him right now.
It’s a long way out, so let’s see how much more he can f*ck-up.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/132597
More NOBAMA fodder.
Frank, I live in Los Angeles. You’re right, it’s completely lily white. I haven’t seen a black or Hispanic person in months. Idiot.
Anyway, your comment was xenophobic. You can’t take it back now, Frank. I don’t give two shits about you being the “minority” where you live – that’s immaterial. Being a good doctor doesn’t mean you speak English. I don’t give a flying fuck what language my doctor’s “native tongue” is, so long as he speaks “medicine.”
Again: Why do you hate foreigners?
Our Media Stars in 2008: Well, the Democrats took the White House and expanded their Congrssional majorities, but don’t forget, it’s a center-right nation!
Our Media Stars in 2010: The Republicans’ pickup of two entire House seats proves that they’re back in the saddle and here’s two uninterrupted hours of Karl Rove to tell us why he was right all along.
No, Mambo, I don’t care how you deal your medical problems. And you’re waaaayyy wrong. Medicine is about communication. That’s why the science you practice is with mice, because you have no concept of human interaction.
I know you live in Los Angeles , and I played you like a violin.
“I can’t take back the remark”
So what? You gonna report me ?
I don’t hate foreigners. I value my life more than you value yours – that’s no surprise.
And that is my last play. Go annoy someone else
Keee-rist. You know, Frank, we’ve actually had some halfway respectful discussions in the recent past. I had hoped that this trend would continue, but alas…
1) “And you’re waaaayyy wrong. Medicine is about communication. ”
OK. You a doctor, Frank? Communication is important, sure. But if you’re afflicted with a disease, you could either have me take a look (I speak English), or you could have a Hispanic medical doctor take a look (who speaks Spanish). Which one is a better idea? Clearly, there’s more the medicine than communication.
2) “That’s why the science you practice is with mice, because you have no concept of human interaction.”
And you are waaaay wrong. First off, I don’t work with mice. I work with rats and pigeons. Secondly, these animals are more similar to humans than you think – a healthy majority of the behavior that you engage in, I can explain in terms of processes that have been extensively studied in rats. Humans just aren’t that special, sorry. And third, Frank, I clearly have a concept of human interaction. After all, I’m chastising you for being a xenophobic asshole – if I didn’t understand human interaction, I wouldn’t do such a thing.
3) “I know you live in Los Angeles , and I played you like a violin.”
To what end? I truly don’t understand what you accomplished by misrepresenting your knowledge of where I live. If you respond to nothing else, I’d like to hear what you feel this weird exchange did for you.
4) “I don’t hate foreigners. I value my life more than you value yours – that’s no surprise.”
How do the latter statement follow the former? Frank, you’re not making much sense, unless you view it within the scope of you being a xenophobic asshole. In that light, these statements make perfect sense.
5) Finally, getting back to a previous comment… how does me criticizing you for being a scared ‘Murican xenophobic cockbag make me an “elitist, arrogant fuck”? The “fuck” part, I can understand from your perspective. But elitist and arrogant? How so?
Though I’d hasten to guess that the 2009 gubenatorial races in NJ & VA will serve as canaries in the coal mine, both of which Republicans seem to be leading at the moment.
I’d bet that Corzine pulls it out in NJ.
Frank has a long track record of being scared of hispanic people. I don’t know why or for what reason but he seems to think something really bad will happen if there are a lot of them in America. Somehow.
People make predictions all the time. Frank makes assertions. He spent an entire year on here declaring that no way would Dems win in 06. Almost every day. And then he disappeared for months after we took the House and Senate.
My track record isn’t perfect. In 2000 I thought there was no way America was dumb enough to elect Bush (and at least on raw numbers I was right), in 04 I thought it was a tossup, in 06 I thought Dems would get the House but not the Senate, and in 08 I thought Obama would win but didnt think he would win FL and that Ohio would be close.
But I don’t go around saying X will DEFINITELY happen the way Frank does.
Corzine is toast. Christy is a strong candidate.
I actually expect VA to be a tougher race for the GOP. It’s a toss up.
If I had a dollar for every time Republicans think they can win a Senate or Gubernatorial race in NJ…
That state is in shambles. The GOP could run Mickey Mouse and be competitive this year.
Mark it down..Christy wins easily.
Although leave us not forget, for wingers, ‘in shambles’ translates as ‘currently controlled by democrats.’
Haha no sir. I mean in poor condition…especially fiscally….crime…Oh, and the whole corruption deal.
3) Bureaucrats making medical decisions
Bureaucrats ALREADY make medical decisions. Ever heard of health insurance?
HMO’s = “Hello, I am doctor _______. I will be a doctor for you this day. I was a doctor in my native land, where I never spoke English.”
So you’re saying that people who can’t speak English have nothing to offer society? And you wonder why we call you a racist?
BTW, asshat, where I live, I am the foreigner
So by your logic, shouldn’t YOU assimilate and learn a new language?
Every country that “hated us” in 2008 has spit on us by then , and now countries that people can’t find on a map, hate us.
…You advocated using Iraqis as cannon-fodder. Why the hell should be trust YOU to predict foreign policy?
Let’s look at President Notbush by summer 2011
You’ve never been right about ANYTHING. Your “predictions” prove that Obama is doing a good job.
Medicine is about communication.
I thought medicine was about treating and curing illnesses?
I don’t hate foreigners. I value my life more than you value yours – that’s no surprise.
So now foreigners are out to kill you? Get a grip.
OW wrote:
“But I don’t go around saying X will DEFINITELY happen the way Frank does.”
If you reduce Frank’s assertions to their essential meaning, he is basically saying what all of the wingnuts said in 2006 and 2008: “Republicans won’t vote for a Democratic candidate“.
Republicans are now 28% of the electorate, per Rasmussen.
Sure, from the viewpoint of the Republican Party, the Democrats are always going to “lose big”. The problem is that currently only 28% of the voters are looking at things from that viewpoint.
The wingnuts have been told by FNC, et al for so long that they are the majority, that they have fallen victim to their own spin. They truly believe that the majority sees the world the way they do, and thus the Democrats are always doomed in the minds of the wingnuts.
I didn’t want to pursue this, Mambo, but I neither hate foreigners, nor do I fear which is what xenophobes do.
I do get a tad nervous dealing with people when my life is concerned, and I hasten to add, that if a doctor doesn’t speak a language I can understand, I have no way of assessing his medical expertise, now do I?
When you, as you always do, work from the position that you carry the truth down from the mountaintop, rather than just being a commenter on a weblog, you have already failed at human communication.
we’ve actually had some halfway respectful discussions in the recent past.
No, I have. Your first time out of the corner, you were a sullen, insolent prick. I held my tongue and you cooled off a bit. Second time, you were a bit more reasonable.
It is you that has faded in the stretch, because you just ARE a sullen, insolent prick.
Did I mistakenly call you elitist and arrogant? Well, then, I apologize. You are not an elitist arrogant prick. You are a sullen, insolent prick.
You want to know “why I hate foreigners”?
I don’t .
Why do you seem to hate everybody you deal with in here? Are you ever reasonable in here with anyone? Not that I have noticed. You come in here, macerating, and slavering like a starving pit bull, and then when your latest target / victim gets his hackles up, and says, “Hey, bud, back the fuck off!”, you go nuts on him. No one gave you the berserker job in here , Mambo. Lighten up.
Shorter Frank: “I’m not a racist! I just hate people who don’t speak English!”
Jaim, you’re cute when you’re being an ass
“we could even see a “hold” in the House and a big pickup in the Senate.
I didn’t know you lefties still smoked hash.”
Stranger things have happened, or so the saying goes. I remember in 1998 that my senior-year Political Science teacher asked us to predict how many seats the Republicans would gain in the House. One person predicted they would actually lose seats. That person was told that there was no way that would happen. (This was in the wake of the impeachment hearings)
Surely enough, the Republicans lost 5 seats in the House.
Honestly, though, I hope the Republicans get over this bout of crazy–it’d be nice to live in a country where people tend to vote for one guy rather than against another.
Frank, hate and fear are two emotions that are deeply intertwined. If you want to play semantics and say that xenophobes don’t hate foreigners, then fine – you win.
You still haven’t answered me why you misrepresented your knowledge of where I live, Frank. It’s really curious. I cannot begin to understand why you’d do that.
I have had respectful exchanges with a number of commenters here. Sean, Duros, CSS, Quaker, and even Tea and Farris occasionally. However, the time that I am most likely to feel compelled to poke my head in and speak up on here is when I see someone saying ridiculously stupid things. And Frank, that’s where you shine. There are very few people in the history of the blogosphere that say things as consistently idiotic as you.
You should be proud.