This is a pretty simple data point but conservative blogs have yet again weaved that fact into a vast and wide conspiracy theory and then feign outrage when people laugh at them.
UPCOMING CONSPIRACY THEORY: Juge Sotomayor is an enemy agent of Mexico! Many of you might remember that they accused current L.A. mayor Antonio Villaraigosa of the same thing. Its like the right has something against hispanics or something.
The problem w/ Mr. Silver’s analysis is that he’s using an overly broad definition. The dealers being closed are known and identifiable. Their owners, and any possible political contributions, can be found. Instead of doing that, Mr. Silver looks in the contribution databases for the very generic “auto dealer” job description. The auto broker I bought my last car through would probably describe himself as an “auto dealer” or a “car dealer” or any of the terms Silver uses. Whether or not some overly general description like “car salesman” is likely to contribute to a Republican, Democrat, or some other party, has nothing to do with whether the about 800 dealers being closed by Chrysler are, and whether the 2,300 remaining are. Has anyone actually bothered to look up the owners of Chrysler’s 3,100 dealerships to see their political contributions, and compared them to the 800 being closed?I would imagine that someone with the research ability and the time could actually figure that out. As is, it wouldn’t shock me to discover that some obscene percentage of car dealers were Republicans, and as a result there were a seemingly outsized number of Republican car dealers closed by the Obama Administration.
If I had to guess though about a possibly interesting aspect to this whole thing, it would be in areas where there were multiple dealers and all but one closed, what effect, if any, did political cronyism have in choices there?
This is research which can, and possibly should be done, but Nate Silver sure hasn’t done it.
Has anyone actually bothered to look up the owners of Chrysler’s 3,100 dealerships to see their political contributions, and compared them to the 800 being closed?I
So, go ahead. If you have problems with Silver’s methodology and believe something else would be a more accurate analysis, then why not do it?
Certainly a better way to go than just taking the “your data doesn’t support my pre-formed opinion so I’m going to dismiss your numbers without providing any of my own” path.
Sean,
Word
Because, as I have mentioned in another thread, I’m not a painfully brilliant researcher nor a stats geek. Nate Silver is, and, frankly, he’s capable of doing far better work than he showed there.
Where did I say anything like that? What I said was that I wouldn’t be shocked if a lot of auto dealers were Republican, and that this would make it seem like too many Republican-owned dealerships were being closed. I didn’t say that Silver’s data “(didn’t_ support my pre-formed opinion so I’m going to dismiss (his) numbers without providing any of my own.” I’m dismissing his numbers because he’s using a methodology as flawed as the one he’s attempting to criticize. And he’s better than that.
But never let it be said that me being aware of my personal limitations didn’t stop me from charging forward. There’s dragons over there Sancho!
Found a list of the closing dealers.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/15436481/List-of-Chrysler-Dealers-to-be-Closed
I’m using the owners named on the list and I’m using Opensecrets.org’s donor info. It would probably be better to crosscheck the OS.org w/ something like the FEC.gov, nowever OS.org will do a cut and paste of the last, first name… FEC.gov requires you to input them individually. Since I’m too lazy to do two cut and pastes, I’m just going w/ OS.org.
Having gone through the A’s, three observations.
1. Auto dealer owners don’t donate to political campaigns, or if they do, it’s not in a way which comes up on donor lists. Out of 32 auto dealers 4 donated to a political campaign 2 Republican, 1 Democrat, 1 both (but donated more to Republican candidates)
2. Auto dealer owners do donate to the National Automobile Dealers Association. 8 of the 32 donated to NADA
3. Michael Maroone should probably have donated to the Obama campaign since he’s getting slaughtered by Chrysler.
Would you buy a used car from this man?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2331/2273802356_13a4ac298d.jpg
Open Secrets has a category, “Car Dealers” that shows an 18 year trend of “Car Dealers” giving 76% to Republicans to 24% to Dems.
http://opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=T2300
“Car Dealers: Long-Term Contribution Trends”
Election year___% to Dems____% to Repubs
2010__________________51%__________49%
2008__________________24%__________76%
2006__________________23%__________76%
2004__________________20%__________80%
2002__________________23%__________77%
2000__________________21%__________79%
1998__________________28%__________72%
1996__________________23%__________77%
1994__________________29%__________71%
1992__________________30%__________69%
1990__________________34%__________66%
TOTAL________________24%__________76%
http://opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=T2300
http://OpenSecrets.org
(years 2004 through 2008 do not include “Levin” funds)
((sorry ahead about formatting changes))
John Cole’s observation sums up this kind of right wing stupidity:
The right wingers “now screaming about this were, just a few weeks ago, screaming about the sanctity of contracts trying to make sure that the bondholders would get their way and push Chrysler into bankruptcy and be liquidated and cause every single Chrysler dealership across the country to close. But it would hurt the UAW, so then it was ok.
Really just the most tedious people on the planet.”
Yah, but I’m saying, that TruCoat, you don’t get it, you get oxidation problems…
I don’t suppose it is at all surprising that a demographic composed of private sector risk takers in pursuit of profit would have fewer Democrats residing within its borders.
“Typical Republican Car Dealer”:
“Yah, but I’m saying, that TruCoat, you don’t get it, you get oxidation problems…”
“You’re sitting there talking in circles like we didn’t go over this already.”!
LOL!-)
I don’t suppose it is at all surprising that a demographic composed of private sector risk takers in pursuit of profit would have fewer Democrats residing within its borders.
Or maybe just that car dealers trend Republican. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Trying to extrapolate that into b.s. like the only risk-takers are Republicans is pretty stupid, and would be if I did the inverse.
No Oliver, trying to extrapolate my post that car dealers would have fewer Democrats into only Republicans are risk takers is what is pretty stupid. Its only one sentence and you still managed to screw it up.
Translated Amused 0: I didn’t say what I said.
Sean,
You are as bad at reading comprehension as Ollie. It’s only 1 sentence. Fortunately for Oliver, in his day job his employers don’t put a whole lot of stock in accuracy, logic, or the truth.