Comments on: My Anecdote http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Sat, 11 Feb 2012 02:42:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.4 By: Vanessa http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/#comment-125383 Vanessa Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:25:03 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11123#comment-125383 P.S. I like Grandma's tee-shirt! :) P.S. I like Grandma’s tee-shirt! :)

]]> By: Vanessa http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/#comment-125376 Vanessa Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:11:48 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11123#comment-125376 Awesome. Awesome.

]]> By: Just John http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/#comment-125374 Just John Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:59:36 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11123#comment-125374 I doubt McCain would litigate in more than one state. And I believe that Obama will win by at least two (probably more). I doubt McCain would litigate in more than one state.
And I believe that Obama will win by at least two (probably more).

]]> By: Kieran http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/#comment-125369 Kieran Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:37:08 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11123#comment-125369 Good on her. My thanks to you Mr Willis for entertaining comment all year. We're cheering for your man in the UK. Good on her.
My thanks to you Mr Willis for entertaining comment all year. We’re cheering for your man in the UK.

]]> By: PG http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/11/02/my-anecdote/#comment-125366 PG Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:16:52 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=11123#comment-125366 So what's the spread on the point at which McCain will bring litigation in a state? Personally, I think any state he loses by fewer than 25,000 votes is going to have every Democratic voter registration scrutinized. There's just no reason for him to have been exaggerating the effect of ACORN's erroneous voter registration in the last debate unless he was going to use it to build distrust among Americans of the results in tossup states. Any state where Obama currently has less than 51% is going to get swarmed by Republican lawyers if Obama wins it: New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, and if present trends continue, Pennsylvania. Among Senate races, I'd say that Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina and possibly Oregon will get litigated as well. We're not going to know the results on Nov. 5 unless the Republicans somehow win at the last minute. If they lose, they won't go easily. Admittedly, I'm too much of a pessimist to accept RCP's superficial electoral vote counts because they don't acknowledge that a bunch of conservatives who were mad about McCain's immigration stance have been scared into voting for him anyway. By my math, Obama has the 238 "solids," plus PA (21) and NM (5), which means he's still 6 Electoral College votes short of 270. Every other state they put into his column either doesn't have 50% for Obama (which means McCain can catch up) or gives Obama less than a 7% advantage (Bradley effect). So what’s the spread on the point at which McCain will bring litigation in a state? Personally, I think any state he loses by fewer than 25,000 votes is going to have every Democratic voter registration scrutinized. There’s just no reason for him to have been exaggerating the effect of ACORN’s erroneous voter registration in the last debate unless he was going to use it to build distrust among Americans of the results in tossup states. Any state where Obama currently has less than 51% is going to get swarmed by Republican lawyers if Obama wins it: New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, and if present trends continue, Pennsylvania.

Among Senate races, I’d say that Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina and possibly Oregon will get litigated as well. We’re not going to know the results on Nov. 5 unless the Republicans somehow win at the last minute. If they lose, they won’t go easily.

Admittedly, I’m too much of a pessimist to accept RCP’s superficial electoral vote counts because they don’t acknowledge that a bunch of conservatives who were mad about McCain’s immigration stance have been scared into voting for him anyway. By my math, Obama has the 238 “solids,” plus PA (21) and NM (5), which means he’s still 6 Electoral College votes short of 270. Every other state they put into his column either doesn’t have 50% for Obama (which means McCain can catch up) or gives Obama less than a 7% advantage (Bradley effect).

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