Disaster Looming…

1:02 pm EST October 31st, 2008 | Uncategorized | 19 Comments

People forget that the GOP has recently held the advantage when it comes to get out the vote operations. The unprecedented GOTV for John Kerry in 2004 was beaten by one other… George W. Bush. Part of the reason Howard Dean became the DNC chairman was a commitment to a 50-state strategy predicated on maximizing GOTV. In theory, you would think McCain’s people would ratchet up the arms race. Instead, they’re putting more money into TV?

The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.

‘The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground,’ said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain’s plans. ‘The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel.’

Wowsers.

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19 Responses to “Disaster Looming…”

  1. jr says:
    October 31, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    “do the scary Muslim thing. Who needs offices”-McCain to Steve Schmidt

  2. Duros Hussein 62 says:
    October 31, 2008 at 1:52 pm

    So, all things being equal, which is more effective-TV and robocalls or boots on the ground?

    Serious question.

  3. DR says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:03 pm

    Duros:

    Boots on the ground, no question about it. Word of mouth is the most powerful of advertising in politics, as it is generally in marketing. Having a presence in the community means that you have a presence, and some measure of influence, on the gossip machine. You have the ability to counteract dis-information, as well as promote information.

    But it’s also incredibly important for the GOTV operation. If someone calls and asks you to get up and go vote, you might do it, or you might not. You have no emotional involvement in the matter, relative to that anonymous caller. BUT, if another human being is nice to you, then asks you to go vote for the candidate he represents, you are far more likely to do so. We are all suckers for attention.

    So boots on the ground is by far the most important aspect of a campaign. Bush/Rove understood this, and Obama certainly understands it as well, since his entire campaign has been geared towards this intensive GOTV operation. But McCain seems to have been spoiled by being in a safe seat his entire career; he just doesn’t understand what it takes to run a competitive campaign.

  4. canadian bacon says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    The GOP can relax now because I just heard on Bush Dumbbaugh that Joe the Plumber has officially endorsed McCain/Palin. I think I heard Dumbbaugh squirt when he said that. Yuk. Flush. Throw in the towel Dems!! It’s over. JTP has spoken.

  5. Doctor Biobrain says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:17 pm

    I’ve been insisting since before McCain was nominated that the Republican leadership didn’t actually want a Republican to win. They just wanted to cripple Obama (or Hillary) and if that strategy made things harder for the Republican to win, all the better. Because they didn’t want a Republican to have to be responsible for cleaning up Bush’s mess and realized that Bush was the worst thing to ever happen to Republicans. And McCain’s strategy has fit into that perfectly, and he was the perfect patsy for them.

    And this newest decision also fits into that. GOTV would be much more important if they actually wanted McCain to win. But if hurting Obama is their intent, than negative ads would be much more effective. The genius of Steve Schmidt was his ability to convince McCain to do all these things that hurt him politically, even when McCain’s instincts have always told him to do the opposite.

  6. Sean D. Martin says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    With record Obama getting breaking donations, McCain pulling way back on financial support for GOTV and other operations and only 4 days to go… Why am I still getting multiple desperate-sounding emails a day from the Obama campaign asking for more donations?

    Serious question.

  7. Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    Duros Hussein 62:
    According to Paul Wellstone: boots on the ground. As he said in Conscience of a Liberal, who are you going to believe, your neighbor or some TV ad/talking head on TV?

  8. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    Read:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

  9. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:36 pm

    “Why am I still getting multiple desperate-sounding emails a day from the Obama campaign asking for more donations?
    Serious question.”

    A Always
    B Be
    C Closing

    Always be closing.

  10. Michael Over Here says:
    October 31, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    First place is the Presidential Limo. Second place is a set of steak knives. Third place is your fired.

  11. Danton says:
    October 31, 2008 at 3:39 pm

    Without the evangelicals–known as “low-church Protestants” among an older generation of New Englanders–McCain’s got no foot soldiers for a ground game. He was even hiring people (who happened to be Democrats in need of cash) to do GOTV stuff. That said, about the only thing he can do is put up TV ads.

  12. ben says:
    October 31, 2008 at 3:44 pm

    The good new is your fired. That bad new is your have one week to earn your job back.

  13. PG says:
    October 31, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    The only Obama fundraising appeal that sounded a bit fake-desperate was from Marianne Markowitz yesterday:

    “I’m the Chief Financial Officer for Barack Obama’s campaign. I track the donations coming in and the expenses going out. I asked for the opportunity to write to you directly so that I could try to explain what’s happening right now. This organization has thousands of employees and spends millions of dollars a day — and at the moment we’re doing it without a safety net. Our spending plans have been stretched by John McCain’s negative attacks and the overwhelming resources of the Republican National Committee.

    “As of October 15th, John McCain and the RNC together had nearly $20 million more in cash than the combined total of Obama for America and the DNC. And just this week, we’re facing new and unexpected spending against us in Montana and West Virginia.”

    That is a bit silly, because Montana and WV are not states that a Democrat has contested seriously for years and they’re very unlikely to go for Obama this year. I’m all for the 50-state strategy, but I got a little annoyed when I was in East Texas a few weeks ago and saw an Obama ad. WTF? And don’t tell me it must have been a shared media market, because Democrats don’t contest Louisiana, Arkansas or Mexico either.

    But I went ahead and donated today because a) I can’t get out to a swing-state this weekend, so I might as well buy coffee and doughnuts for those who can; and b) I’m a sucker for their prize drawings. I’m like the people who play the lottery even though they’re very unlikely to win, but console themselves that it’s money going to a good cause (generally the state education fund).

  14. Tyro says:
    October 31, 2008 at 9:00 pm

    I really don’t understand how and why McCain and the GOP allowed the impressive 2004 GOTV operation to wither on vine. This was, really, their ace in the hole and best hope for winning. Did the whole thing just disappear after the 2004 elections were over?

  15. Bruce Henry says:
    October 31, 2008 at 10:13 pm

    I’m a little uncomfortable with the sense that I get here that this thing is in the bag. I’m a nervous wreck myself. I won’t breathe easy until Wednesday, and if something goes wrong……

  16. kayla says:
    November 1, 2008 at 12:19 am

    great blog i found you somehow when i did a search on our sons birth defect esophageal atresia. I wish you all the best.

  17. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    November 1, 2008 at 11:28 am

    “I’m a little uncomfortable with the sense that I get here that this thing is in the bag. I’m a nervous wreck myself. I won’t breathe easy until Wednesday, and if something goes wrong……”

    Same here.

  18. Roschelle says:
    November 1, 2008 at 11:39 am

    Barack has been a pillar of confidence, cool, and level headedness this entire campaign. McCain represents desperation, low road politics and putting self and your own personal aspirations far in front of country. There is no limit to the depths John McCain won’t sink to in an effort to win this election. He gave up country first a long time ago. Schwarzenegger, an alleged racist, who’s been critical of Sarah Palin and John McCain, now is being utilized as McCain’s saving grace. Politics are such a joke.

  19. Duros Hussein62 says:
    November 1, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    I’ve been insisting since before McCain was nominated that the Republican leadership didn’t actually want a Republican to win.

    Holy crap, I never thought of that. Why would they want a Republican to wade through the crap that W leaves behind?

    It’s all so clear now.

    i found you somehow when i did a search on our sons birth defect esophageal atresia.

    Wow, what are the odds?
    Good luck, Kayla, seriously.