Tightening!

12:38 pm EST October 30th, 2008 | News | 13 Comments

In Gallup’s old likely voter model – the most McCain friendly projection – Obama has moved his lead back up to 5%.

One thing I’ve noticed is that in many swing states – Colorado, Virginia, and in some polls Nevada – Obama is over 50%. Back in 2004, that was not the case with Sen. Kerry. So, in a lot of these cases even in the impossible likelihood that all undecideds went McCain the state would still go Obama. But the likelihood of all undecideds going McCain ain’t so good. It’s a good buffer to have.

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13 Responses to “Tightening!”

  1. ed says:
    October 30, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    Whatever. Stay on target, bitches! Do like Mr. Obama said and help Get Out the [Good Guy] Vote!

  2. PG says:
    October 30, 2008 at 12:57 pm

    When I look at the RCP map, I have to do my own math because I don’t count any state for Obama that doesn’t simultaneously give him at least 50% (just in case the folks sulking about McCain’s immigration stance get scared into voting against Obama at the last minute) and a 7 point lead over McCain (just in case some iteration of the Bradley effect is in play this year). By my count, and noting that Pennsylvania just went from “solid” Obama to “leaning” Obama, he’s got 269 electoral votes (the 238 “solid,” PA, NM & NV). I’m going to be phonebanking this weekend; I hope y’all will do the same.

  3. Duros Hussein 62 says:
    October 30, 2008 at 1:01 pm

    Anyone happen to catch Tom DeLay on Hardball last night? Flat out called Obama a Socialist commie pinko fag bastard and Tweety let him get away with it.

    Shouldn’t he be in prison somewhere?

  4. jr says:
    October 30, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    Matt Drudge is still singing Love Of A Lifetime by Firehouse to McCain

  5. Steve LaBonne says:
    October 30, 2008 at 1:40 pm

    This has been over for a good month. Barring statistical fluctuations, the polls have pretty much been set in concrete that whole time.

    Not an excuse to stop working, just saying that people needn’t lose sleep worrying.

  6. SaveFarris the Plumber says:
    October 30, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    Did he actually throw the ‘fag’ line or are we hyperboling?

  7. PG says:
    October 30, 2008 at 2:39 pm

    Actually, what offends me about the DeLay interview is that he, like most white conservatives, is ignorant about the African American church yet assumes that he must know everything about everything without putting any actual time into learning about it. (White liberals, on the other hand, will stop and read some goddamn books before putting themselves forward as experts about blacks.)

    And twenty years of association means that he must agree with the Marxist theology of black liberation theology.

    Evidently one of DeLay’s staff did a search on “liberation theology” and assumed that sticking the word “black” ahead of it didn’t change the content. I just wish someone had prodded DeLay to talk about Rev. Wright, the Jesuit. Also, how ignorant do you have to be to refer to “Marxist theology”? Or was DeLay talking about some different Marx who didn’t refer to religion as the opiate of the masses?

  8. Steve LaBonne says:
    October 30, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    The main thing that offends me about DeLay is that he’s not in prison where he belongs.

  9. Jaime says:
    October 30, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    I will still be be a nervous Nelly, worried all the way to the polls until he is announced the winner. God forbid something drastic happen and all these polls are false or something. I tend to not trust polls because they represent such a SMALL minute sampling of the actual population. Scary.

  10. PG says:
    October 30, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    He’s awaiting trial. Due process, kids, even for Republicans. Just because they don’t believe in it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t.

  11. hack says:
    October 31, 2008 at 2:03 am

    It’s worth keeping in mind: in 2004, we were getting excited every time a poll showed our guy 2 points ahead. Now, the other side is getting excited every time a poll shows their guy 3 points BEHIND.

  12. Duros Hussein62 says:
    October 31, 2008 at 8:48 am

    Did he actually throw the ‘fag’ line or are we hyperboling?

    Well, no. That was an embellishment. But I think we all know who No. 2 is.

  13. Duros Hussein62 says:
    October 31, 2008 at 8:50 am

    Also, how ignorant do you have to be to refer to “Marxist theology”?

    Yeah, that’s a thing of beauty.