’)I don’t like making predictions, but I think this is one worth making. Sen. Obama will win Pennsylvania. The right wing blogs are constantly atwitter about secret McCain polls showing the race there as “close” but for whatever faults state polls might have, not a single one in Pennsylvania has shown a McCain lead there since April. And only one poll has Obama under 50% since September. John McCain will not win there, no matter how many hoaxes about racial violence his campaign pushes.
On the other hand, I think Ohio is a legit swing state, that I think McCain could win. The problem is, unlike 2000 and 2004 the Democrat can win without Ohio. (In fact in my final prediction I put Ohio and Florida in McCain’s column, though I feel Sen. Obama has a shot in both, especially Florida)
RELATED: The Pennsylvania Gambit
I don’t know… the “This American Life” broadcast about the PUMAs flipping Democrats toward McCain has made me worried about whether the polls are capturing the whole story. In particular, the continued emphasis on “we don’t know who this Obama is, where did he come from” mistrust of the Other, which the McCain campaign is very good at exploiting, may bear fruit once someone is in the voting booth. McCain and his supporters keep saying that there are “years missing” from Obama’s life story (really? which years? they never say), which is the kind of nonsense that works well on less-informed people. They haven’t been following the campaign closely, they’ve never read Obama’s books; huh, they think to themselves, what DO I know about Obama? The fact that they would blank if I asked them what McCain did between his POW release and his entry to Congress is irrelevant.
Penn-syl-vania? Shoot, if they don’t hurry up and have this thing, dude might cop Arizona!!
I hope you are right but I rather work from the premise that we are behind in every state and try my best to get more people to vote Obama. Make sure that they are doing more than wearing T-shirts and buttons but actually making it out to the polls (and if at all possible get them there early)
I think Obama will take Florida, but it will be under a 5 point difference. By far, the best website in crunching all the polls together is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com – and Silver’s numbers show Florida going for Obama.
If Barack wins PA it certainly won’t be because of John Murtha.
When I logged onto 538.com, I honestly didn’t expect to see every Penn. poll in Obama’s column (with one tie). Looked like the O section of an African phone book. Very encouraging. I’m thinking you’re right.
Ohio, Florida and PA – in the bag! I guarantee it!
Have I ever lied to you before? By the way, if you’re interested I’ve a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you. Seriously, I think we take all three, and we’ve got a good shot in NY and California as well – assuming of course the river don’t rise.
PG:
There are years missing from Jesus’ life story too, and McCain seems to be polling well amongst voters who consider themselves evangelicals. Those seeking info on Obama’s childhood, teens, or academic years should borrow one or both of his books from the library as a pre-election read or audiobook. I didn’t, I support his stand on the key issues of the day.
I think you’re being a little over-cautious, Oliver. Insofar as this election will be “close,” it will be close like the ‘06 midterms were “close”: the end result is that in almost every “close” state, the scales will tip towards Obama. That means Obama likely gets Florida and Ohio. McCain likely wins Indiana, but in a squeaker, making it the one toss-up he wins, but only because Indiana shouldn’t have been a toss-up in the first place.
PUMAs are a media invention. Sure, there are a few dead enders who are legit, but the vast majority of Sen. Clinton’s supporters are Obama supporters. The few PUMAs there are disgruntled and Republican operatives. They’re like the Ron Paul folks for the left, lots of noise but no there there.
Actually, Obama’s doing better in Ohio than in Florida, being a good six or seven points ahead on average there compared to about three in Florida.
McCain and his supporters keep saying that there are “years missing” from Obama’s life story
Bunch a’ lost weekends in Angry Johnny’s past, too.
Just sayin’.
Florida GOP scuttlebutt has Obama showing surprising strength in Republican strongholds along the west coast of the peninsula and the I-4 corridor. We are talking enormous GOP erosion here. The Panhandle will go strongly for McCain, as will Greater Jacksonville. Interestingly enough, McCain may actually outperform both Kerry and Gore on the Gold Coast. Who’s to say Obama might pull in Florida, but it is a steep slope for him.
As for Pennsylvania, only a fool would predict a McCain win here. But we may see a few surprise counties north and west of South Mountain going red, due to Murtha, guns, God, etc.
Ohio may indeed clinch it for Obama. Acorn will outpoll Diebold, and the Taft scandals are not long forgotten.
I think the Republicans look at PA demographics and think -”We should be closer here” – lots of old white people, appalachians and non-latino Catholics – groups McCain generally polls better with. They just flat out refuse to believe that the gap is as big as it is in poll after poll. McCain and company know that if they don’t win FL and OH it’s over – they’re hoping that those two will fall into their column, but they still come up short without flipping some state(s) Obama is clearly winning in.
Instead of putting all the emphasis on PA, and trying to close the electoral gap with one long shot state – they probably should have worked harder at some sort of VA,NV,CO,NM and NH combo that would achieve the same goal.
Fortunately, the McCain team has shown itself to be less than brilliant in their strategery so far.
My guess – obama takes VA, OH, NV, NH, CO and NM. McC holds on to FL, NC, MO, MT and ND. Obama taking GA is only marginally more realistic than McC taking PA. Obama 311 EV.
Actually, Pennsylvania is one of the easiest states to steal. We have no paper record. Zip. Nada. So, Obama could be up 10, lose 5 and we would have no way to check or verify those results. Both our democratic gov and sec of state, although dems–keep in mind that one reason the dems didn’t pass a single election integrity law over the last two years is that a lot of dems like the stolen elections of 2000 and 2004, usually they’re DLC members or people who like proxy wars for Israel or both–are clueless on this issue.
Here’s something that just happened. The PA NAACP sued the state to ensure that if half the machines break down (quite likely) you could use emergency paper ballots–which are actually better in that you have a paper record to count in case of a dispute–against the dem guv and the dem sec of state. Guess who filed a brief on the side of the guv and the sec of state? That’s right. Our friends the republican party. AS soon as that happened, Rendell and Cortes should have reversed themselves immediately but they didn’t.
Now, Rendell lost today thank god. But keep in mind that one of the legacies of the Clinton administration is that we have a lot of GOP friendly judges at the federal level. The rule for the GOP is to keep on appealing because they’ll probably win. That’s probably the post election strategy. Try to get all those phantom ACORN voters off the rolls. They wouldn’t do that if they had any shame but there are, you know, republicans. Let’s steal the nigger vote and declare victory. Evil party…tell me again why Obama wants that guys in his administration? He wants to keep Paulson?
Anyway. If you’re a vote stealer, Pennsylvania is like a bank full of money sitting in the street with no doors and no locks. Obama probably has a better shot in Ohio and Florida but there are 50 ways to steal an election and the dems haven’t passed a law to stop anyone of them.
Philip Shropshire
http://www.threeriversonline.com
If Obama did not think Pa was close, he would not have spent so much time there lately. Gov Rendell asked Obama to come back, indicating internal polls are tight.
This may be a very close race. It’s not in the bag for anyone.
A six or seven point lead for Obama may be no lead at all.
[...] 8:43: Me on Oct. 29 – “I don’t like making predictions, but I think this is one worth making. Sen. Obama will win Pennsylvania.” [...]