Comments on: Conservative Hysteria About Polling

By: SpiderJ

SpiderJ — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 23:24:12 +0000

Nope, that’s enough for me. Thanks for the clarification.

By: JK

JK — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 23:08:33 +0000

Spider,

Yes, that’s me. Something changed. Two words.

Sarah Palin.

Last week, she said she looked forward to being “in charge of the Senate” if they win.

Do I need to say more?

By: buma

buma — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:39:03 +0000

Nice link from Parthenon to the always brilliant Wizbang. Funny stuff. If I were a writer for Wizbang I’d keep a low profile for a few months.

By: SpiderJ

SpiderJ — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:56:45 +0000

JK – Forgive me a second, because maybe I don’t have my handles straight. Weren’t you the one who repeatedly vowed in this forum to vote for McCain after HRC failed to land the nomination?

If that is you…you’re “worried?”

(If that’s not you, my apologies.)

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 04:43:18 +0000

“But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.”

I’ve seen some polls that think the African-American vote will be lower this year.

What the fuck?

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 04:41:24 +0000

Nobody here is counting chickens before they’re hatched. I’m the one who says this election will come down to a 2% margin. But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.

By: Sean D. Martin

Sean D. Martin — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 03:06:26 +0000

a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.

I doubt an Obama candidacy and (in all likelihood) Presidency would have been at all possible if we hadn’t had Bush. After eight years of Gore (or even 4 of Gore and 4 of some Repub) things would not be as far off the rails for the Repubs as they are now.

I think Obama is great and will make a fine President. But I don’t think he would be in the running this year if Bush hadn’t screwed things up some much his first term and continued on that path in his second.

By: Walker

Walker — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 02:30:55 +0000

Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.

Which Gallop? They have three different national polls (registered, likely I, and likely II). That’s the problem. People are just looking at raw numbers without understanding the basic models. This is why the aggregators (538, Pollster, and RCP — though I strongly disagree with RCP’s methodology) are so important.

By: JK

JK — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 23:44:14 +0000

OW…easy….this race is not over. Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.

That’s enough to make me very nervous when we consider the past: a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.

By: PG

PG — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 23:42:37 +0000

Eh, it's like conservative hysteria about socialism. Returning us to Clinton era federal tax rates is socialism. Government dumping money into banks and telling banks how to run their business -- not socialism.

By: Parthenon

Parthenon — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:24:16 +0000

were conservatives as skeptical of the polling as they are now? And that is a big resounding 'no.' This is the same site (JT's) that posts DJ Drummond's very lengthy critiques of the current polls. Different blogger though.

By: jr

jr — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 21:44:03 +0000

Birchers being Birchers