Conservative Hysteria About Polling

4:23 pm EST October 28th, 2008 | News | 12 Comments

When Sen. McCain led in the polls after the RNC convention, were conservatives as skeptical of the polling as they are now? I’m just asking.

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12 Responses to “Conservative Hysteria About Polling”

  1. jr says:
    October 28, 2008 at 4:44 pm

    Birchers being Birchers

  2. Parthenon says:
    October 28, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    were conservatives as skeptical of the polling as they are now?

    And that is a big resounding ‘no.’

    This is the same site (JT’s) that posts DJ Drummond’s very lengthy critiques of the current polls. Different blogger though.

  3. PG says:
    October 28, 2008 at 6:42 pm

    Eh, it’s like conservative hysteria about socialism. Returning us to Clinton era federal tax rates is socialism. Government dumping money into banks and telling banks how to run their business — not socialism.

  4. JK says:
    October 28, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    OW…easy….this race is not over. Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.

    That’s enough to make me very nervous when we consider the past: a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.

    JK

  5. Walker says:
    October 28, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.

    Which Gallop? They have three different national polls (registered, likely I, and likely II). That’s the problem. People are just looking at raw numbers without understanding the basic models. This is why the aggregators (538, Pollster, and RCP — though I strongly disagree with RCP’s methodology) are so important.

  6. Sean D. Martin says:
    October 28, 2008 at 10:06 pm

    a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.

    I doubt an Obama candidacy and (in all likelihood) Presidency would have been at all possible if we hadn’t had Bush. After eight years of Gore (or even 4 of Gore and 4 of some Repub) things would not be as far off the rails for the Repubs as they are now.

    I think Obama is great and will make a fine President. But I don’t think he would be in the running this year if Bush hadn’t screwed things up some much his first term and continued on that path in his second.

  7. Oliver Willis says:
    October 28, 2008 at 11:41 pm

    Nobody here is counting chickens before they’re hatched. I’m the one who says this election will come down to a 2% margin. But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.

  8. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    October 28, 2008 at 11:43 pm

    “But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.”

    I’ve seen some polls that think the African-American vote will be lower this year.

    What the fuck?

  9. SpiderJ says:
    October 29, 2008 at 7:56 am

    JK – Forgive me a second, because maybe I don’t have my handles straight. Weren’t you the one who repeatedly vowed in this forum to vote for McCain after HRC failed to land the nomination?

    If that is you…you’re “worried?”

    (If that’s not you, my apologies.)

  10. buma says:
    October 29, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    Nice link from Parthenon to the always brilliant Wizbang. Funny stuff. If I were a writer for Wizbang I’d keep a low profile for a few months.

  11. JK says:
    October 29, 2008 at 6:08 pm

    Spider,

    Yes, that’s me. Something changed. Two words.

    Sarah Palin.

    Last week, she said she looked forward to being “in charge of the Senate” if they win.

    Do I need to say more?

    JK

  12. SpiderJ says:
    October 29, 2008 at 6:24 pm

    Nope, that’s enough for me. Thanks for the clarification.