When Sen. McCain led in the polls after the RNC convention, were conservatives as skeptical of the polling as they are now? I’m just asking.
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Conservative Hysteria About Polling
October 28th, 2008
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Birchers being Birchers
were conservatives as skeptical of the polling as they are now?
And that is a big resounding ‘no.’
This is the same site (JT’s) that posts DJ Drummond’s very lengthy critiques of the current polls. Different blogger though.
Eh, it’s like conservative hysteria about socialism. Returning us to Clinton era federal tax rates is socialism. Government dumping money into banks and telling banks how to run their business — not socialism.
OW…easy….this race is not over. Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.
That’s enough to make me very nervous when we consider the past: a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.
JK
Most of the reputable polls have a 4-5% lead for Obama. Gallup has it at 2% today.
Which Gallop? They have three different national polls (registered, likely I, and likely II). That’s the problem. People are just looking at raw numbers without understanding the basic models. This is why the aggregators (538, Pollster, and RCP — though I strongly disagree with RCP’s methodology) are so important.
a 500 vote swing in a state called Florida meant the difference between an Al Gore Presidency and the current nightmare.
I doubt an Obama candidacy and (in all likelihood) Presidency would have been at all possible if we hadn’t had Bush. After eight years of Gore (or even 4 of Gore and 4 of some Repub) things would not be as far off the rails for the Repubs as they are now.
I think Obama is great and will make a fine President. But I don’t think he would be in the running this year if Bush hadn’t screwed things up some much his first term and continued on that path in his second.
Nobody here is counting chickens before they’re hatched. I’m the one who says this election will come down to a 2% margin. But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.
“But at the same time, the model that has the election at 2% from Gallup is the model that says turnout patterns in 2008 will be the same as 2004. I don’t think anyone – not even conservatives – really believes that.”
I’ve seen some polls that think the African-American vote will be lower this year.
What the fuck?
JK – Forgive me a second, because maybe I don’t have my handles straight. Weren’t you the one who repeatedly vowed in this forum to vote for McCain after HRC failed to land the nomination?
If that is you…you’re “worried?”
(If that’s not you, my apologies.)
Nice link from Parthenon to the always brilliant Wizbang. Funny stuff. If I were a writer for Wizbang I’d keep a low profile for a few months.
Spider,
Yes, that’s me. Something changed. Two words.
Sarah Palin.
Last week, she said she looked forward to being “in charge of the Senate” if they win.
Do I need to say more?
JK
Nope, that’s enough for me. Thanks for the clarification.