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why the heck McCain and Palin are campaigning in Iowa and Pennsylvania? Colorado, I understand. Florida, I understand. New Hampshire even makes sense. And certainly Ohio. But they’re spending their limited resources in states where poll after poll shows a double digit deficit.
Then again, almost 8 years ago George W. Bush was campaigning in California – nobody knows why to this day. Bush went on to lose California by 12% to Gore.
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I have been soliciting comments on various blogs for analysis of exactly what the hell McCain is doing.
I suppose if he wanted to salvage whatever is left of his national reputation he would dump all the negative shit and spend his waning days trying to help out endangered Republican congressional candidates.
But they’re spending their limited resources in states where poll after poll shows a double digit deficit.
Let ‘im. Go for it, Angry Johnny.
There is a rumor going about that Obama punked him by releasing a fake internal poll that shows the race closer than it actually is.
I saw an entirely plausible theory somewhere, but can’t recall which blog. I’ll repost later with the link if I find it.
The short version: PA has a lot of EVs but doesn’t have early voting other than traditional absentee balloting. Some or all of those smaller-EV states have large-turnout early voting, which is not going McCain’s way. It’s a lot easier to change someone’s vote, obviously, if they haven’t already cast it. McCain is gambling that some major event between now and Nov 4 will shift PA along with OH, FL, and VA into his column.
Having said that, given that the Pennsylvania GOP has been repeatedly stepping in its own poo lately, I have to say that a strategy that has zero chance of working makes no sense at all, even if it looks good on paper. This would seem to fall into that category. Nate has PA 99% likely to go to Obama.
McCain’s in PA because he’s certainly going to lose several states that Bush won in 2004 (at least CO, NM, IA) and the only way he can win this is by grabbing one of the states that Kerry won to make up for CO, NM, and IA — of the Kerry states, PA is the biggest prize that is at all reachable. If McCain focused on only the states where he’s leading or within single-digits, those states wouldn’t total up to 270, so he’s going all in on getting PA and hoping that NV, OH, VA, FL, etc. stay red. It’s not a great gamble, but he doesn’t have much of a hand.
Palin in IA is easy: the caucuses are a little over three years away. Now’s the time to start working on her 2012 campaign.
I think Pennsylvania is McCain’s latest and last Hail Mary pass. If you look at the electoral college, about the only way McCain can get back in the game is if he somehow pulls off a victory in Pennsylvania. If he doesn’t do that, he has to sweep the battleground states – he’s got to win them all: Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. If Obama keeps the Kerry states, plus Iowa and New Mexico, where he’s been ahead for some time in all the polls, then all he has to do is win any one of the battleground states and he wins the election. If he wins Ohio, he wins the election, even if McCain somehow won ever other battleground state. Obama could lose Ohio and all the others except Virginia, and he wins the election. He could lose all of them except Colorado and he wins the election, etc.
If Obama loses Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Colorado, but wins Nevada, then the electoral votes tie at 269 and it goes to the House – and Obama wins (well, probably wins. See here). And that’s without the possibility he’ll pick up that one electoral vote in Nebraska.
So, as it stands, McCain is toast. Unless there’s a widespread problem with the polls this year, there’s no way McCain is going to sweep all seven battleground states, and I’m being conservative in listing only seven. At this point, McCain’s lead is looking shaky in North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana as well.
But if McCain can turn Pennsylvania, that changes everything. Then Obama could win both Virginia and Colorado and still lose. He could win Virginia and Missouri and still lose. He could win Ohio and Nevada and still lose. If McCain takes Pennsylvania, suddenly there are a lot of ways Obama could lose, instead of only one way (100% success for McCain in the battleground states).
Can McCain turn Pennsylvania? It doesn’t seem likely. But I think what they are thinking is:
1. Hillary beat Obama in the Pennsylvania primary.
2. It was with reference to Pennsylvanians that Obama made his unfortunate remarks about people “clinging to guns and religion.”
3. Rural Pennsylvania is still Hillbillyland, apparently.
Given these three facts, and John Murtha’s helpful remarks the other day, and the possibility (likelihood?) that more helpful comments will be forthcoming from pathologically self-destructive Democrats, McCain’s people have decided to give it a shot. They’ve got nothing to lose, and if they keep throwing those long passes, they’ve got to get lucky eventually, right?
And they’ve got Sarah Palin, who’s a woman just like Hillary, a gun-toting hillbilly Pentecostal, and has as sweet an ass as you’ll find on a white girl.
Who knows? John McCain keeps reachin’ for the stars, and I don’t know if that’s ever going to work for a guy who can’t raise his arms over his head.
“He’s blackblackblackblack”-McCain in PA
I remember some silliness about George Will thinking it was time for CA to go Republican in the national race back in 2000. Or maybe it was 2004?
Somebody is obviously whispering in McCain’s ear that PA is do-able. Seems like a lost cause to me, but go for it. I’m happy to see him waste his limited resources there.
I personally like this theory. The only thing wrong with it is that it assumes sanity to the GOP and John McSame. I have a very difficult time believing either is sane, but you never know.
I think, honestly, McCain’s just trying to play the perceptions game at this point, to make it look like he has several roads to the WH. When in fact, he pretty much has one.
I read about the Obama PA internal leak and I have to think it’s a punking. You don’t see Team Obama spending a lot of resources there. Then again, they can win without it….
What Max said – McCain is playing the low odds, high payoff bet.
Of all the large blue states, which is the most likely to flip?
He is already depending on Ohio, so it is pretty mach PA (Michigan, is out, and don’t even talk about NY / CA / NJ / IL.)
I have been wondering the exact same thing; especially about Pennsylvania. Obama is up by double digits with 9 days to go and Pennsylvania went to the democrats in the last two election cycles in losing years. There is NO way McCain can pick off Pennsylvania this year. Every dollar he spends there at this point is wasted. The guy has already proved he is not rational. This just drives the point home.
Mark
BloggingDemocratic.blogspot.com
Campaigning in Iowa is simple, it is positioning for 2012.