Comments on: Final Prediction

By: Take This To The Bank | Oliver Willis

Take This To The Bank | Oliver Willis — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 21:11:09 +0000

[...] McCain could win. The problem is, unlike 2000 and 2004 the Democrat can win without Ohio. (In fact in my final prediction I put Ohio and Florida in McCain’s column, though I feel Sen. Obama has a shot in both, [...]

By: daniel rotter

daniel rotter — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:43:09 +0000

I agree with Oliver’s map. If you look at recent polls, it looks like some at-one-time possible wins for Obama (Ohio, Missouri, Florida) are slipping away from his grasp.

By: White Whale

White Whale — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:15:20 +0000

Randy,
I second the motion. RIP Dolemite!

Oliver,
I have to say that I think VA is going OBAMA and Georgia will be closer than others think. I think Obama just has to win PA and VA and its pretty much over.

By: Randy Brown

Randy Brown — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:22:42 +0000

Callin’ out around the world
Are you ready for a brand new beat?

I’d say you won’t be the only one blocking traffic that night.

(BTW, RIP Rudy Ray. Him AND Foxx AND Pryor in the afterworld together…gonna be priceless.)

By: Haplo9

Haplo9 — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 07:21:42 +0000

I think the real question on everyone’s mind is.. can you dance?

By: Joe Bourgeois

Joe Bourgeois — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 06:16:37 +0000

Add NC, FL, OH, MO, NV to Obama’s column. That’d be, unless I screwed up and I checked twice, 364-174.
People like to go with the winner.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:54:14 +0000

If Barack Obama is elected president by 1 vote I’ll be happy, let alone a blowout.

I have seriously promised to dance in the street if he wins, and I will post the video here. So use that for motivation.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:51:07 +0000

I think you’re low-balling it as well. However, it’s better to do this and be happy on November 4th than expect a blowout and be disappointed.

By: Quaker in a Basement

Quaker in a Basement — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 04:31:26 +0000

@ steelhead: 54-48? That adds up to 102 percent.

Careful. You’re going to get the trolls riled up about voter registration fraud again.

By: datadave

datadave — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:40:08 +0000

Very conservative and probably damn close to reality. I think you covered yourself well…but I’d hate to lose Ohio yet again.

By: DrFrankLives

DrFrankLives — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:08:04 +0000

Oh ye of little faith….

We’re goingto kick their asses here in North Carolina.

By: James E. Powell

James E. Powell — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 01:15:00 +0000

OW you are going in low. I suppose that will make several “surprises” on election night all the more satisfying.

I would go with what you have, but add Ohio and Florida for Obama.

McCain’s numbers will be low enough over the weekend before election day to demoralize Republican turnout. There are no really hot statewide races or issues in Ohio or Florida that will bring out the mouth-breathers.

But I would be comfortable if this map were now in the heads of all Obama campaign workers. The better to keep them fired up and ready to go for the last two weeks.

By: Jaim

Jaim — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 00:20:16 +0000

Considering that Bush called his win in 2004 a “mandate,” O-dub’s prediction is good enough for me.

By: Doug

Doug — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:53:20 +0000

I wouldn’t bet folding money on it or anything, but I’m getting the feeling that my fellow Hoosiers might turn Indiana blue. That would rock.

By: steelhead

steelhead — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:20:02 +0000

I think 54-48 with 375 EV Obama 163 McCain. Although I’d like to see a 401 EV Obama. Just Blue in a Red State.

By: Duros Hussein 62

Duros Hussein 62 — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:11:29 +0000

2%? Really? I don’t think it’s gonna be that tight. All hyperbole aside, it’ll be closer to a blowout than a nail-biter.

At least I think so.

By: johnnydrama

johnnydrama — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 22:06:20 +0000

I think the popular vote difference is too low.

With California being about a 20 point lead, and NY close to 30, but Texas only 12-15, that is a huge popular discrepancy for Obama.

If McCain wins Florida, Ohio, NC they will be really close.

By: Nimrod Gently

Nimrod Gently — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:50:21 +0000

I’d love a metor obliterating the landscape – Obama deserves it at this point more than Reagan or Nixon did at theirs – but I’m pretty certain it’s going to be closer than it is right now in the polls. It will take whatever the opposite of a miracle is for McCain to pull it off – not that pessimistic me is ruling it out – but at the same time I think Obama might not quite beat 300.

I notice that you have Ohio and Florida going red and Obama winning anyway, I like that.

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:49:42 +0000

I still feel a bigger win in the end, but that is my opinion. BTW RCP poll has Obama 50.1.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:39:55 +0000

Well, no, but I don’t see anything changing in an earth-shaking way between now and election day. I hope and pray the margins are much more crushing in Obama’s favor, but that’s what my guess is.