Final Prediction
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Obama 286 – McCain 252
Popular vote: Obama by 2%
Map:
I feel pretty safe with this map. I’m conservative when it comes to these things, though I wouldn’t be surprised now with an Obama win in FL, OH, MO and even NC. Of those, the most likely to flip is FL which would be a huge prize.
In the Senate, I think Dems will pick up 7 seats (MN, NM, AK, CO, NH, OR, VA). I feel like they will fall short in the NC race. That would work out to 57-42-1.
In the House, I have no clue what the margin will be but it will be more Democrats.
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© 2000-2011 Oliver Willis
Nice map. Closer than I like but a win is a win!
I think you’re right about Merkley pulling it off in Oregon. I can’t believe it – he was down eighteen earlier this year, and he’s up about four to six now.
In the Senate, I think Dems will pick up 7 seats (MN, NM, AK, CO, NH, OR, VA). I feel like they will fall short in the NC race. That would work out to 57-42-1.
That’ll work. It will give the Dems no incentive to try to placate Lieberman and sufficient margin to boot him.
That’s exactly the flip of the 04 electoral totals IIRC.
This doesn’t have to be your final answer. There’s two more weeks to go fergoodnesssakes.
Well, no, but I don’t see anything changing in an earth-shaking way between now and election day. I hope and pray the margins are much more crushing in Obama’s favor, but that’s what my guess is.
I still feel a bigger win in the end, but that is my opinion. BTW RCP poll has Obama 50.1.
I’d love a metor obliterating the landscape – Obama deserves it at this point more than Reagan or Nixon did at theirs – but I’m pretty certain it’s going to be closer than it is right now in the polls. It will take whatever the opposite of a miracle is for McCain to pull it off – not that pessimistic me is ruling it out – but at the same time I think Obama might not quite beat 300.
I notice that you have Ohio and Florida going red and Obama winning anyway, I like that.
I think the popular vote difference is too low.
With California being about a 20 point lead, and NY close to 30, but Texas only 12-15, that is a huge popular discrepancy for Obama.
If McCain wins Florida, Ohio, NC they will be really close.
2%? Really? I don’t think it’s gonna be that tight. All hyperbole aside, it’ll be closer to a blowout than a nail-biter.
At least I think so.
I think 54-48 with 375 EV Obama 163 McCain. Although I’d like to see a 401 EV Obama. Just Blue in a Red State.
I wouldn’t bet folding money on it or anything, but I’m getting the feeling that my fellow Hoosiers might turn Indiana blue. That would rock.
Considering that Bush called his win in 2004 a “mandate,” O-dub’s prediction is good enough for me.
OW you are going in low. I suppose that will make several “surprises” on election night all the more satisfying.
I would go with what you have, but add Ohio and Florida for Obama.
McCain’s numbers will be low enough over the weekend before election day to demoralize Republican turnout. There are no really hot statewide races or issues in Ohio or Florida that will bring out the mouth-breathers.
But I would be comfortable if this map were now in the heads of all Obama campaign workers. The better to keep them fired up and ready to go for the last two weeks.
Oh ye of little faith….
We’re goingto kick their asses here in North Carolina.
Very conservative and probably damn close to reality. I think you covered yourself well…but I’d hate to lose Ohio yet again.
@ steelhead: 54-48? That adds up to 102 percent.
Careful. You’re going to get the trolls riled up about voter registration fraud again.
I think you’re low-balling it as well. However, it’s better to do this and be happy on November 4th than expect a blowout and be disappointed.
If Barack Obama is elected president by 1 vote I’ll be happy, let alone a blowout.
I have seriously promised to dance in the street if he wins, and I will post the video here. So use that for motivation.
Add NC, FL, OH, MO, NV to Obama’s column. That’d be, unless I screwed up and I checked twice, 364-174.
People like to go with the winner.
I think the real question on everyone’s mind is.. can you dance?
Callin’ out around the world
Are you ready for a brand new beat?
I’d say you won’t be the only one blocking traffic that night.
(BTW, RIP Rudy Ray. Him AND Foxx AND Pryor in the afterworld together…gonna be priceless.)
Randy,
I second the motion. RIP Dolemite!
Oliver,
I have to say that I think VA is going OBAMA and Georgia will be closer than others think. I think Obama just has to win PA and VA and its pretty much over.
I agree with Oliver’s map. If you look at recent polls, it looks like some at-one-time possible wins for Obama (Ohio, Missouri, Florida) are slipping away from his grasp.
[...] McCain could win. The problem is, unlike 2000 and 2004 the Democrat can win without Ohio. (In fact in my final prediction I put Ohio and Florida in McCain’s column, though I feel Sen. Obama has a shot in both, [...]