Comments on: Election Prediction http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:30:20 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: BEKAH http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-125433 BEKAH Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:15:21 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-125433 My father was called by the Gallop poll three weeks ago, regarding his position in the election. The first question: do you consider yourself a conservative? A:yes Q:do you consider yourself a strong conservative? A:yes. Silence......they actually hung up on him. Now, tell me the polls aren't fixed. As for an unbiased opinion on the outcome...I would like one too. All I'm reading, however, is more rhetoric and no real facts regarding how each of you is predicting your guesses. I have no doubt you are extremly intelligent people. Please, give me some solid predictions....and don't base them on Oprah or Stevie Wonder. Neither of them live with the income level I do. Thanks everyone and God Bless. My father was called by the Gallop poll three weeks ago, regarding his position in the election. The first question: do you consider yourself a conservative? A:yes Q:do you consider yourself a strong conservative? A:yes. Silence……they actually hung up on him. Now, tell me the polls aren’t fixed.

As for an unbiased opinion on the outcome…I would like one too. All I’m reading, however, is more rhetoric and no real facts regarding how each of you is predicting your guesses.

I have no doubt you are extremly intelligent people. Please, give me some solid predictions….and don’t base them on Oprah or Stevie Wonder. Neither of them live with the income level I do.

Thanks everyone and God Bless.

]]> By: Chris Fallows http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-124004 Chris Fallows Mon, 27 Oct 2008 22:54:19 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-124004 yeah well i was alive in 2000 and honestly i agree with Ethan look at the 2004 election it was so clearly similar to this and Bush won.You cant trust the media entirely just look at the cold hard facts.Both candidates are being looked at for Economics and really pressing issues like Recession not personality entirely.If you really want to know who will win look at their policies and see which one most Americans agree with and you will have an answer.Or at the Demographics,facts not opinions that's what you need to be giving mambochicken23 not bashing someone for their belief which is actually descent. yeah well i was alive in 2000 and honestly i agree with Ethan look at the 2004 election it was so clearly similar to this and Bush won.You cant trust the media entirely just look at the cold hard facts.Both candidates are being looked at for Economics and really pressing issues like Recession not personality entirely.If you really want to know who will win look at their policies and see which one most Americans agree with and you will have an answer.Or at the Demographics,facts not opinions that’s what you need to be giving mambochicken23 not bashing someone for their belief which is actually descent.

]]> By: mambochicken23 http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-119320 mambochicken23 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:21:31 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-119320 Ethan, were you alive in November 2000? Ethan, were you alive in November 2000?

]]> By: Ethan http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-119313 Ethan Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:40:07 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-119313 I came here looking for an unbiased educated prediction. I consider myself an independent, and I think, even though you really want Obama to win, this website would be more interesting if you really gave it some genuine effort. I mean come on, everyone knows this is the tightest race in history -- an Obama landslide? That's not even realistic. I came here looking for an unbiased educated prediction. I consider myself an independent, and I think, even though you really want Obama to win, this website would be more interesting if you really gave it some genuine effort. I mean come on, everyone knows this is the tightest race in history — an Obama landslide? That’s not even realistic.

]]> By: Zython http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118910 Zython Sun, 05 Oct 2008 17:06:13 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118910 <i>I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States…</i> Not looking too good for your team then. Obama's at least 5 pts ahead in almost every poll. All he has to do is maintain a head and stay on the offensive. I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States…

Not looking too good for your team then. Obama’s at least 5 pts ahead in almost every poll. All he has to do is maintain a head and stay on the offensive.

]]> By: Danack http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118858 Danack Sun, 05 Oct 2008 09:59:41 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118858 Hmm....my first post was eated, lets try again I predict that the polls will be at least this far apart from now until the election date. There are several factors that are moving Obama ahead and only one possible one making them closer. Obama is spending about twice as much on advertising as McCain is. Amusingly, as about of Obama's ads are negative, this means that Obama is spending more on negative ads than McCain is. The difference is that Obama's negative ads are attacking McCain's policies directly, McCain is still trying to attack Obama's character - presumably because that worked so well for Hillary. Obama has a ground game, McCain <a href='http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html' rel="nofollow">does not.</a> While this won't make much direct difference to the polls, having feed back from people making telephone calls and door-to-door canvassing will allow the Obama campaign to see the same day which of their ads are working and (if any) which of McCains and so respond appropriately. Obama and Biden are hitting the campaign trail much harder and more effectively that McCain/Palin. Obama/Biden are campaigning almost non-stop (family emergencies aside) wheares McCain and Palin are both taking days off and also spending time in states where Obama is going to win by 10% e.g. California and Iowa. People are still digesting and adjusting their votes based on what they saw in the debates. It's going to take at least a week for the full effect to be seen in the polls. Although neither debate was that dramatic both of them reinforced people's opinion of Obama/Biden that these guys are ready to lead the country, and reinforced the idea that McCain/Palin are nowhere near ready for prime-time. The candidate <a href='http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines' rel="nofollow">net favourable</a> ratings are just rediculously bad for the McCain camp now. Pulling out of Michigan is going to put the McCain campaign on the defensive and start a 'McCain is losing' narrative in the press. This will blunt any possible strategy of his, as people will see that he's desparate. Against all the above McCain is now going to stop talking about the economy to focus on what happened in the 1960's. Srly. Despite the worst financial crisis since the 1930's, two intractable wars and health-care unobtainable for record numbers of people, McCain thinks that the public will be receptive to negative ads about events that occured when Obama was 8. And that appears to be his only plan now - he doesn't have any dramatic new policies or strategies to focus the campaign on foreign policy. People really expect the polls to tighten? Hmm….my first post was eated, lets try again

I predict that the polls will be at least this far apart from now until the election date.

There are several factors that are moving Obama ahead and only one possible one making them closer.

Obama is spending about twice as much on advertising as McCain is. Amusingly, as about of Obama’s ads are negative, this means that Obama is spending more on negative ads than McCain is. The difference is that Obama’s negative ads are attacking McCain’s policies directly, McCain is still trying to attack Obama’s character – presumably because that worked so well for Hillary.

Obama has a ground game, McCain does not. While this won’t make much direct difference to the polls, having feed back from people making telephone calls and door-to-door canvassing will allow the Obama campaign to see the same day which of their ads are working and (if any) which of McCains and so respond appropriately.

Obama and Biden are hitting the campaign trail much harder and more effectively that McCain/Palin. Obama/Biden are campaigning almost non-stop (family emergencies aside) wheares McCain and Palin are both taking days off and also spending time in states where Obama is going to win by 10% e.g. California and Iowa.

People are still digesting and adjusting their votes based on what they saw in the debates. It’s going to take at least a week for the full effect to be seen in the polls. Although neither debate was that dramatic both of them reinforced people’s opinion of Obama/Biden that these guys are ready to lead the country, and reinforced the idea that McCain/Palin are nowhere near ready for prime-time. The candidate net favourable ratings are just rediculously bad for the McCain camp now.

Pulling out of Michigan is going to put the McCain campaign on the defensive and start a ‘McCain is losing’ narrative in the press. This will blunt any possible strategy of his, as people will see that he’s desparate.

Against all the above McCain is now going to stop talking about the economy to focus on what happened in the 1960’s. Srly. Despite the worst financial crisis since the 1930’s, two intractable wars and health-care unobtainable for record numbers of people, McCain thinks that the public will be receptive to negative ads about events that occured when Obama was 8. And that appears to be his only plan now – he doesn’t have any dramatic new policies or strategies to focus the campaign on foreign policy.

People really expect the polls to tighten?

]]> By: Oliver Willis http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118845 Oliver Willis Sun, 05 Oct 2008 06:03:40 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118845 Either just paste in the url or do standard html Either just paste in the url or do standard html

]]> By: Danack http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118821 Danack Sun, 05 Oct 2008 00:06:06 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118821 Doh, too used to bbcode, here's that link again: Obama has a ground game: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html Hmm, so how do you do links? Doh, too used to bbcode, here’s that link again:

Obama has a ground game:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

Hmm, so how do you do links?

]]> By: mambochicken23 http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118774 mambochicken23 Sat, 04 Oct 2008 18:19:59 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118774 Frank, you are just the worst kind of person. Frank, you are just the worst kind of person.

]]> By: Steve LaBonne http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118770 Steve LaBonne Sat, 04 Oct 2008 17:57:08 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118770 Since you clearly don't think about what you say, Frank, why should we? Since you clearly don’t think about what you say, Frank, why should we?

]]> By: Frank DiSalle http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118760 Frank DiSalle Sat, 04 Oct 2008 17:05:57 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118760 I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States... After the Bailout, we will not be able to AFFORD a President Obama ... Who, after all, is young, gifted and ... LIBERAL! What did you THINK I was going to say? I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States…

After the Bailout, we will not be able to AFFORD a President Obama …

Who, after all, is young, gifted and …

LIBERAL!

What did you THINK I was going to say?

]]> By: Just John http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118756 Just John Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:25:59 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118756 Obama will win by at least two battleground states. Obama will win by at least two battleground states.

]]> By: Monroe Anderson http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118753 Monroe Anderson Sat, 04 Oct 2008 15:52:09 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118753 A brave man might have predicted an Obama landslide--and if things continue to go in the direction they are going, he might be right. A brave man might have predicted an Obama landslide–and if things continue to go in the direction they are going, he might be right.

]]> By: Bijan C. Bayne http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118737 Bijan C. Bayne Sat, 04 Oct 2008 14:32:08 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118737 There is no way Obama will not pick up at least 18 electoral votes (Kerry amassed 252) among the battleground states of Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Missouri. In most cases each won is sufficient to propel him from Kerry's total to 270. McCain's path, given that he feels Michigan is off the table, is more circuitous. Can't lose any Bush states. There is no way Obama will not pick up at least 18 electoral votes (Kerry amassed 252) among the battleground states of Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Missouri. In most cases each won is sufficient to propel him from Kerry’s total to 270.

McCain’s path, given that he feels Michigan is off the table, is more circuitous. Can’t lose any Bush states.

]]> By: somejackass http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/10/04/election-prediction/#comment-118732 somejackass Sat, 04 Oct 2008 14:03:50 +0000 http://www.oliverwillis.com/?p=9998#comment-118732 Way to go out on a limb there OW. You predict we won't have something that fivethirtyeight.com puts odds at 0.5%. On election day we will all be calling you a genius, I'm sure. Way to go out on a limb there OW. You predict we won’t have something that fivethirtyeight.com puts odds at 0.5%. On election day we will all be calling you a genius, I’m sure.

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