Unlike my earlier hedge-filled predictions I made about the election, this one I make without equivocation: There will be no tie. The 269-269 electoral tie will not happen in 2008. I feel as sure as when I succesfully predicted that we wouldn’t have a brokered Democratic convention.
I’m not saying we won’t have any Florida-style suspense (though I pray we don’t) but we will know who the winner is without it having to go to the House of Representatives to break a tie.
Way to go out on a limb there OW. You predict we won’t have something that fivethirtyeight.com puts odds at 0.5%. On election day we will all be calling you a genius, I’m sure.
There is no way Obama will not pick up at least 18 electoral votes (Kerry amassed 252) among the battleground states of Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Missouri. In most cases each won is sufficient to propel him from Kerry’s total to 270.
McCain’s path, given that he feels Michigan is off the table, is more circuitous. Can’t lose any Bush states.
A brave man might have predicted an Obama landslide–and if things continue to go in the direction they are going, he might be right.
Obama will win by at least two battleground states.
I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States…
After the Bailout, we will not be able to AFFORD a President Obama …
Who, after all, is young, gifted and …
LIBERAL!
What did you THINK I was going to say?
Since you clearly don’t think about what you say, Frank, why should we?
Frank, you are just the worst kind of person.
Doh, too used to bbcode, here’s that link again:
Obama has a ground game:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html
Hmm, so how do you do links?
Either just paste in the url or do standard html
Hmm….my first post was eated, lets try again
I predict that the polls will be at least this far apart from now until the election date.
There are several factors that are moving Obama ahead and only one possible one making them closer.
Obama is spending about twice as much on advertising as McCain is. Amusingly, as about of Obama’s ads are negative, this means that Obama is spending more on negative ads than McCain is. The difference is that Obama’s negative ads are attacking McCain’s policies directly, McCain is still trying to attack Obama’s character – presumably because that worked so well for Hillary.
Obama has a ground game, McCain does not. While this won’t make much direct difference to the polls, having feed back from people making telephone calls and door-to-door canvassing will allow the Obama campaign to see the same day which of their ads are working and (if any) which of McCains and so respond appropriately.
Obama and Biden are hitting the campaign trail much harder and more effectively that McCain/Palin. Obama/Biden are campaigning almost non-stop (family emergencies aside) wheares McCain and Palin are both taking days off and also spending time in states where Obama is going to win by 10% e.g. California and Iowa.
People are still digesting and adjusting their votes based on what they saw in the debates. It’s going to take at least a week for the full effect to be seen in the polls. Although neither debate was that dramatic both of them reinforced people’s opinion of Obama/Biden that these guys are ready to lead the country, and reinforced the idea that McCain/Palin are nowhere near ready for prime-time. The candidate net favourable ratings are just rediculously bad for the McCain camp now.
Pulling out of Michigan is going to put the McCain campaign on the defensive and start a ‘McCain is losing’ narrative in the press. This will blunt any possible strategy of his, as people will see that he’s desparate.
Against all the above McCain is now going to stop talking about the economy to focus on what happened in the 1960’s. Srly. Despite the worst financial crisis since the 1930’s, two intractable wars and health-care unobtainable for record numbers of people, McCain thinks that the public will be receptive to negative ads about events that occured when Obama was 8. And that appears to be his only plan now – he doesn’t have any dramatic new policies or strategies to focus the campaign on foreign policy.
People really expect the polls to tighten?
I stand by my prediction : If the candidates are perceived as close on the real Columbus Day (Oct 12th, for you youngsters), and stay that way until Halloween (Oct 31st for you non Wiccans and non Druids) , then John McCain will be the next President of the United States…
Not looking too good for your team then. Obama’s at least 5 pts ahead in almost every poll. All he has to do is maintain a head and stay on the offensive.
I came here looking for an unbiased educated prediction. I consider myself an independent, and I think, even though you really want Obama to win, this website would be more interesting if you really gave it some genuine effort. I mean come on, everyone knows this is the tightest race in history — an Obama landslide? That’s not even realistic.
Ethan, were you alive in November 2000?
yeah well i was alive in 2000 and honestly i agree with Ethan look at the 2004 election it was so clearly similar to this and Bush won.You cant trust the media entirely just look at the cold hard facts.Both candidates are being looked at for Economics and really pressing issues like Recession not personality entirely.If you really want to know who will win look at their policies and see which one most Americans agree with and you will have an answer.Or at the Demographics,facts not opinions that’s what you need to be giving mambochicken23 not bashing someone for their belief which is actually descent.
My father was called by the Gallop poll three weeks ago, regarding his position in the election. The first question: do you consider yourself a conservative? A:yes Q:do you consider yourself a strong conservative? A:yes. Silence……they actually hung up on him. Now, tell me the polls aren’t fixed.
As for an unbiased opinion on the outcome…I would like one too. All I’m reading, however, is more rhetoric and no real facts regarding how each of you is predicting your guesses.
I have no doubt you are extremly intelligent people. Please, give me some solid predictions….and don’t base them on Oprah or Stevie Wonder. Neither of them live with the income level I do.
Thanks everyone and God Bless.