That’s what the internals of this SurveyUSA poll say, which overall shows McCain only up by 1%.
This is part of a pattern I’m seeing in polls, where the number of black voters for McCain don’t seem to jibe with what’s likely to happen. I’m not saying he will get no black voters, but I think it isn’t being too optimistic to think that he won’t hit double digits. (And I’m not alleging any malice or shenanigans – I think in general pollsters are getting a very small sample of black voters which from a cursory reading seems to be a regular occurence)
By comparison, Bush got 16% of the black vote in Ohio in 2004, part of a national trend in 2004 that had the GOP hit the highest ever in the black vote. In 2000, the black vote went for Bush to the tune of 9% in Ohio.
Consider these factors: Katrina, the economy, Iraq and oh yeah, the possibility of the first black president in U.S. history.
Even if McCain reaches the 2000 number, I think he would be very lucky.
(Howard the Duck landed in Cleveland. I am such a nerd.)
Let’s figure: 10%.
Ohio is still a tossup.
I’ll guess Virginia and Florida flip Democratic, while Ohio — land o’ old white folks — may or may not follow suit.
In related news, this is the best thing I’ve ever seen:
Obama 286 McCain 190 Ties 62
DUDE! That thing is off by a couple of decimal places. They’re obviously weighing this thing using 2004 numbers. McN’Sain and Sarah Failin’ will be lucky to get 0.15% of Ohio’s AA voters — and that includes most of Ken Blackwell family and one white guy who lied about his race on the survey.
SUSA has had some weird numbers on black voters in Indiana, too. They’ve shown a weird decline in the % of voters that are black, and odd splits down the ballot. This may be part of SUSA’s larger problem with demographics that are less likely to have land lines – SUSA has generally shown weird numbers on young voters as well.
I think alot of blacks will vote republican.
Sincerely,
That one black guy they always sit in the front row of any GOP event or townhall.
I don’t buy it either.
The American African vote is not in play this year. They will be voting almost exclusively on the merits of race not ideas.
They will be voting almost exclusively on the merits of race not ideas.
That explains why white presidential candidates in the past have always gotten 100% of the white vote.
Amused,
So AAs are voting on race only and WASPs are voting out of guilt, and the repugs aren’t voting out of ignorance, sheer, blind, ignorance.
Want an example of ignorance? See the “not in play” comment above.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb, courtesy of the left:
If a person is voting FOR Obama, they’re basing their decision on the ideas.
If a person is voting AGAINST Obama, they’re basing their decision on race.
97% of blacks voting for Obama? It’s the ideas, man! And all the sweet Hope and Change!
50% of whites voting against Obama? Racists!!
No the fact is of the racists voting this year their choice is McCain. Not all, not even most, of the people voting for McCain are racists. But the racist vote – as it is every year – is GOP red.
Post-RNC, I had revised my “Obama wins PV by 6-12 points” prediction down to a 4-8 point margin. Now I’m thinking about going back to my original mark. I won’t say it’s over until it’s actually over, but the rotund diva is getting her makeup applied and preparing to practice her scales before going on stage. There’s just the debates, plus a couple weeks of nasty and vicious ads, plus some more vote suppression attempts, plus maybe one more real crisis and perhaps one manufactured one, and then we get to election day. Obama by 5-10 points, and 320-380 in the EC.
hmmm…
“the” racist vote or “the racist vote”?
If ‘bam loses it’s because of a or b? You’re saying what?
personally I don’t believe the racists have it that together enough to make an attractive voting block for either party. Naive I guess.
Sincerely,
The really ugly girls who can’t make it on Fox News
But the racist vote – as it is every year – is GOP red.
Not so fast, Oliver. What about all those solidly blue racist white Democrats?
Damn! One third of white Democrats are closet racists? That’s some serious racism you’ve got going on in your party there, folks.
Also from the story linked above:
Oliver, I know this is an uncomfortable fact that you’d rather just sweep under the rug and not have to deal with (since it threatens your whole “people not voting for Obama are racist” meme), but please explain to us exactly how it is NOT racist for 90% of blacks (most of them being Democrats) to vote for a black candidate, while it IS racist for 50% of whites (most of them being Republican) to vote for a white candidate.
A little consistency is all we ask.
Well, Dave, I can’t speak for Oliver, but don’t AA’s almost ALWAYS vote 90% for Democrats? Perhaps because Democrats advocate for the working and middle class, while Republicans favor the already-rich?
I don’t have statistics at the ready, but I’d be willing to bet that’s the truth, or close to it, since FDR.
90% of blacks would vote for the Democratic candidate regardless of his color. As far as the rest of your strawman, Oliver never said that most Republicans are racist. Just that most racists are voting for McCain. If the Republicans were running the black candidate (forgive me while I lol) than the racists would vote for the white Democratic candidate. You see, that’s what racists do, they vote against people not in the preferred race. Surely you can’t be this dense.
Oliver didn’t even state that there are no racists that are Democrats. Only that the racist vote is “GOP Red”. Can you disprove this? Did I miss stormfront endorsing Obama or something?
OW, I’d like to know what the hell you know about black voters. You’re not an astronaut.
Lived in Cincy from 2000-2005. McCain may get 5% of the Black vote in Ohio. Obama could get 40% of the white vote. The wonder is that Indiana is in play. Hillary nearly lost that primary.
LOL,
If Obama loses this election due to racism it will be the racism of the left. The Bradley effect. Even the most diehard racist of the right will have legitimately voted against Obama’s liberalism and scant record of accomplishments long before his race ever becomes an issue.
No, it will be racism from within the traditional coalition Democrats have forged through the politics of identity, victimhood, and redistribution of wealth. Vastly amusing.
If Obama loses this election due to racism it will be the racism of the left. The Bradley effect.
Do you even understand what the “Bradley effect” is?
Even if we stipulate that the effect is real, why would people on the left be more likely to give a misleading response to a pollster?
Make sense if you can.
Well, Dave, I can’t speak for Oliver, but don’t AA’s almost ALWAYS vote 90% for Democrats? Perhaps because Democrats advocate for the working and middle class, while Republicans favor the already-rich?
For the general AA population, the figure I’ve seen as voting Democrat is 90%. For AA Democrats, the figure is closer to 97% this election.
So how do you explain why fewer white Democrats are voting for Obama than black Democrats?
Look again at the story:
I noticed they didn’t give figures on what percentage were NOT voting for Obama for those two thirds who didn’t cite a “negative adjective when describing blacks”. Even if we were to assume that it’s 0% (which is very unlikely… there have to be more than a few Hillary voters mixed in there too) that means that at least 20% of white Democrats are not voting for Obama, roughly 5 to 6 times the percentage (3%) of black Democrats who are not voting for him.
That’s a pretty big split. Why the difference? Other than race, what factor is driving the divergence?
Only that the racist vote is “GOP Red”. Can you disprove this?
First, why don’t you try defining exactly what “the racist vote” even means, and second, show how this voting group or bloc is “GOP red”.
Oliver didn’t even state that there are no racists that are Democrats
Oliver studiously ignores any racism, overt or implied, that occurs on the Democrat side.
Witness Joe Biden, pre-VP nomination.
Post-nomination, that’s a different story:
So Biden goes from saying things that are “racist, offensive, and not representing any of the qualities of the Democratic party or America.” to “a smart guy, and solid on the issues”.
The deciding factor? Why Obama’s appointment of Biden to be his running mate, no doubt.
Gotta sweep any inconvenient facts under the carpet when it threatens the message.
On the other hand, read through the archives here and marvel at all the “Republicans are Racists” posts from Oliver.
Quaker,
“Do you even understand what the “Bradley effect” is?”
Certainly I do. It refers to the ill fated campaign of Tom Bradley in the liberal stronghold of California. Ahead in the polls he lost the election. The conventional wisdom is that voters will tell pollsters the politically correct answer and then vote their true feelings in the privacy of the voting booth.
“Even if we stipulate that the effect is real, why would people on the left be more likely to give a misleading response to a pollster?”
LOL, are you kidding? No one on the right is going to shade their opinion of Obama. They aren’t going to vote for him because he is liberal in every sense of the word. They aren’t going to vote for him because of his shady Chicago connections, his racist religious affiliations, his anti second amendment stances, etc. He will be crossed off the list by his positions long before his race ever becomes an issue.
The left on the other hand is a completely different matter. He has alienated many women by the misogynist campaign tactics that many of his hard core followers waged against Hillary. He has alienated traditional blue collar types with his condescending remarks about clinging, his elitist attitudes and life story. And quite frankly affirmative action is not considered a good thing by a measurable portion of the Democratic coalition. Many blue collar whites have felt first hand the effects of legalized discrimination. In the privacy of the voting booth their real feelings will surface. We shall see what those feelings are.
“Make sense if you can.”
I don’t think I could make it any more clear. Would smaller words help?
I don’t think I could make it any more clear. Would smaller words help?
Your words are fine. It’s your logic that needs help.
Are you telling me your definition of “The Left” includes all women and all “traditional blue collar types”? That’s certainly what you imply:
I’ll skip the opportunity to demolish your fantasy about “misogynist campaign tactics.” (You seem to have trouble deciding whether Mr. Obama is responsible or “many of his hardcore followers.”) I’ll also let you slide on calling his life story “elitist”.
To the point, you first post that Mr. Obama may have a problem with voters on “the left” and then define “the left” as decidedly centrist voters.
You sure you want to go that way?
Also, AO, your logic misses here also:
No one on the right is going to shade their opinion of Obama. They aren’t going to vote for him because he is liberal in every sense of the word. They aren’t going to vote for him because of his shady Chicago connections, his racist religious affiliations, his anti second amendment stances, etc. He will be crossed off the list by his positions long before his race ever becomes an issue.
You’re confusing “how people will vote” with “how people respond to pollsters.” You’ve given me a concise (if factually challenged) recap of why rightwing voters won’t consider voting for Mr. Obama. But you put that recap under the heading of why rightwing voters will tell the truth to pollsters.
Put that in smaller words, Sparky.
I suspect that we may be seeing some “reverse Bradley” effect not in the polls but in conservative/racist communities more generally, where some white voters angry about the economy may be unwilling to admit they will vote for Obama, but will do so in fact.
Small sample size problems – don’t worry.
overall sample: 693
percentage blacks: 11% (~76 sampled)
percentage of those preferring McCain: 15%, or ~11.
So 11 black folks they called said McCain rather than 5 – not too improbable considering the small sample size.
MoE increases as the sample shrinks.
Quaker,
What ever dude. The Democratic coalition has traditionally included women, minorities, and labor. Of course you knew that, right?
I’ll stand by the statement that if Obama loses because of racism it will be racism from the left. Think what ever you want.
What ever dude. The Democratic coalition has traditionally included women, minorities, and labor. Of course you knew that, right?
The “Left” = The Democratic coalition = All women, minorities, and “traditional blue collar types”
I like our chances.
The American African vote is not in play this year. They will be voting almost exclusively on the merits of race not ideas.
Then will you please explain to us why the ever-loving FUCK Michael Steele isn’t the junior senator from Maryland, a state with a sizable black voting population? While you’re at it, explain why Alan Keyes has NEVER won elective office…
Don’t forget Lynn Swann, Mr. Brown. He left a whole big puddle of Fail behind.
By all appearences Blacks overwhelmingly favor Politicians who pander to them on the basis of victim hood. Public figures who tell them harsh truths and hold them accountable are not so popular. Bill Cosby is a pretty good example. Personal responsibility is a hard sell compared to affirmative action and preferential treatment.
Unsupported generalizations about how certain people think or behave, based on their skin color?
If only we had a word for this…
By all appearences Blacks overwhelmingly favor Politicians who pander to them on the basis of victim hood.
Uh-huh.
True story – I simply googled Barack Obama Personal Responsibility and the autofinish knew it by ‘per.’ I don’t really know how autofinish software works, but I assume that means it’s a common search.
“Amused Observer” doesn’t seem like the right name. Maybe “Obtuse Observer”. Or “Casually Offensive Observer”. Or maybe just “Prick”.
“Amused Observer” doesn’t seem like the right name. Maybe “Obtuse Observer”. Or “Casually Offensive Observer”. Or maybe just “Prick”.
How about simply “DAFN,” the “N” in his case denoting “nudnik.”
Did Steele’s or Swan’s white male opponents play to blacks’ “victimhood?” If you can provide credible evidence, please do so!
(Disclosure: when he was still Philly mayor, Ed Rendell was called an “asshole” one New Year’s Day by me and about 400 other people – and he LIKED it!)
The American African vote is not in play this year.
Interesting choice of phrasing there. Just sayin’.
By all appearances Blacks poor Republican voters overwhelmingly favor Politicians who pander to them on the basis of victim hood.
Fixed that for ya.
Hey, preview showed a strikethrough.