Comments on: North Carolina

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:02:30 +0000

“Obama probably won’t win North Carolina,”

538.com gives him a 30% chance, but I think that might be a little low.

“…but the fact that he’s even COMPETITIVE in the state is interesting.”

Certainly. This is a state Bush won by 12 points. If Obama wins here, he wins in a landslide.

By: daniel rotter

daniel rotter — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 02:06:10 +0000

Obama probably won’t win North Carolina, but the fact that he’s even COMPETITIVE in the state is interesting.

By: Bruce Henry

Bruce Henry — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 01:34:51 +0000

I have nothing but anecdotes, but I feel GREAT about NC as of 9/29/08. In my job, I meet tons of homeowners of every class. Lots of anger out there about the “bailout” from every income group. Lots of people realizing who seems “presidential” and who seems “fucking clueless”.
In the state that elected Jesse Fucking Helms FIVE TIMES, I think Obama just may win, 52-48.
Of course, there’s still the TwentyThreePercent, who are very loud.

By: drinkof

drinkof — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 23:09:36 +0000

None of these really decently figure in the registration numbers and, for that matter, serious changes in the turnout numbers (as in, the black turnout in NC is going to greatly eclipse that from last time). NC has already got 300k new voters, and about 80% are Democrats. They aren’t done registering people, either.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 21:39:30 +0000

“Wish somebody knew what the hell was going on.”

Where’s the fun in that?

By: Parthenon

Parthenon — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 21:37:12 +0000

A democrat’s competitive in a southern state? Partyin’ like it’s 1992!

I believe this is Mr. Henry’s state; Bruce, interested in your take should you happen across this thread…

By: Nimrod Gently

Nimrod Gently — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:56:25 +0000

That's why I consult Electrical Vote Dot Com. It's as good an average of the current swing as you're likely to find.

By: Duros Hussein 62

Duros Hussein 62 — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:49:34 +0000

RCP average has Obama by 3.2%

Wish somebody knew what the hell was going on.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:38:15 +0000

“Gallup Daily has them tied at 46%.
I truly do not get it.”

And Rasmussen has Obama up by 3. What the fuck?

By: MobiusKlein

MobiusKlein — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:45:36 +0000

always remember that 1 out every 20 polls you see will be outliers for statistical reasons alone. 2.5 of the States will have polls more than the margin of error from the actual vote come election day.

(Yes, exactly 2.5 sir.)

Some enterprising statistician should go through past polls & elections to see what the actual deviations between polls and votes have existed.

By: Duros Hussein 62

Duros Hussein 62 — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:20:19 +0000

Gallup Daily has them tied at 46%.

I truly do not get it.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:33:35 +0000

Just to emphasize…

Given the state of the race, right now Obama has a 70% chance of winning. If he wins North Carolina, that increases by 10 points, maybe a little more.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:30:17 +0000

Treat it like an outlier till more polls confirm it. Don’t get too excited.

However, if it is confirmed, McCain is practically sunk.