New Rasmussen poll has Obama up for the first time in North Carolina. It’s just a slight edge – 2% – but hey…
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Treat it like an outlier till more polls confirm it. Don’t get too excited.
However, if it is confirmed, McCain is practically sunk.
Just to emphasize…
Given the state of the race, right now Obama has a 70% chance of winning. If he wins North Carolina, that increases by 10 points, maybe a little more.
Gallup Daily has them tied at 46%.
I truly do not get it.
always remember that 1 out every 20 polls you see will be outliers for statistical reasons alone. 2.5 of the States will have polls more than the margin of error from the actual vote come election day.
(Yes, exactly 2.5 sir.)
Some enterprising statistician should go through past polls & elections to see what the actual deviations between polls and votes have existed.
“Gallup Daily has them tied at 46%.
I truly do not get it.”
And Rasmussen has Obama up by 3. What the fuck?
RCP average has Obama by 3.2%
Wish somebody knew what the hell was going on.
That’s why I consult Electrical Vote Dot Com. It’s as good an average of the current swing as you’re likely to find.
A democrat’s competitive in a southern state? Partyin’ like it’s 1992!
I believe this is Mr. Henry’s state; Bruce, interested in your take should you happen across this thread…
“Wish somebody knew what the hell was going on.”
Where’s the fun in that?
None of these really decently figure in the registration numbers and, for that matter, serious changes in the turnout numbers (as in, the black turnout in NC is going to greatly eclipse that from last time). NC has already got 300k new voters, and about 80% are Democrats. They aren’t done registering people, either.
I have nothing but anecdotes, but I feel GREAT about NC as of 9/29/08. In my job, I meet tons of homeowners of every class. Lots of anger out there about the “bailout” from every income group. Lots of people realizing who seems “presidential” and who seems “fucking clueless”.
In the state that elected Jesse Fucking Helms FIVE TIMES, I think Obama just may win, 52-48.
Of course, there’s still the TwentyThreePercent, who are very loud.
Obama probably won’t win North Carolina, but the fact that he’s even COMPETITIVE in the state is interesting.
“Obama probably won’t win North Carolina,”
538.com gives him a 30% chance, but I think that might be a little low.
“…but the fact that he’s even COMPETITIVE in the state is interesting.”
Certainly. This is a state Bush won by 12 points. If Obama wins here, he wins in a landslide.