Comments on: Current Prediction

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 00:48:04 +0000

“Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt to have a strong defence against the October surprise.”

I think the October surprise this year will be a Republican sex scandal. Hopefully it will involve Palin, because I don’t think I could stomach the thought of McCain doing it doggie style on the Straight Talk Express.

By: susan

susan — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 00:28:59 +0000

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

By: anotherbozo

anotherbozo — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:28:35 +0000

flash forward to November:

OBAMA WINS, DOESN’T WANT JOB
Democratic Victor Changes Mind, Says Only a Masochist Would Serve
“Sorry, Bush Left Country in Too Colossal a Mess”

By: Vic

Vic — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 19:27:13 +0000

Those damned latte-sipping liberal elites in Iowa! Seriously though, when Obama wins, are we going to see Sean Hannity pull up the map and say “Wow, look at all that blue!” ? That would be something!

By: Nimrod Gently

Nimrod Gently — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 18:55:12 +0000

Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt to have a strong defence against the October surprise.

By: Nimrod Gently

Nimrod Gently — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 18:52:22 +0000

I’m not seeing 300 for either one, but McCain looks to have reached the top of his parabola already, so if we can just keep it the way it is we’ve got a chance.

The Democrats have shifted their game away from the 50 state strategy this late in the day in favour of bulleting the swing states’ blue skies. That might make a difference somewhere like Ohio, which is anybody’s, or NH, which I’m very disappointed in. Even F*****a is back in contention.

By: Bijan C. Bayne

Bijan C. Bayne — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 17:46:49 +0000

He may actually lose Iowa Oliver, but Missouri and Colorado are in play. McCain will have to spend money and time in NC and Indiana, but he’ll take both.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 17:02:46 +0000

I think Obama can win Ohio, but it ain’t a lock. I think he will hold on to Michigan because of the economy.

By: old white guy

old white guy — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:55:25 +0000

Obama 375.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:46:49 +0000

I think you are correct, except for New Hampshire. I don’t like the polling numbers from that state.

By: buma

buma — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:45:31 +0000

All I can say is Obama had better win Michigan.

By: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle

Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:23:54 +0000

OW:
Not confident that Obama can win Ohio? I think Obama will win Ohio.

By: Ross Graham

Ross Graham — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:54:38 +0000

Yep, I have a feeling Indiana’s going blue this year too. Keep an eye on us.

By: Mike B.

Mike B. — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:42:40 +0000

I don’t think the second map is particularly outrageous; you aren’t even pushing Indiana over the line. Ohio and Florida are both very close, and if McCain doesn’t redefine the terms of the election they’ll probably go with the rest of the wave.

Candidates do decisively win sometimes, even Democrats. Just because it hasn’t happened in a long time doesn’t mean it’s not possible–in ’06 literally everything that could swing our way did. (I don’t count Ford. That was always a pipe dream.)

By: Dr. Monkey

Dr. Monkey — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:04:43 +0000

I think your second map is closer to what is going to happen. I’m sure you’ve already seen this site but in case you have not then here’s the link:

http://www.270towin.com/

It’s a cool ass interactive electoral college map.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:00:06 +0000

If he does a markedly better job than Bush did in this first term
A sock puppet could do that.

By: mike in dc

mike in dc — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:46:40 +0000

Actually, if Obama wins by 5% or more, he could pick up even more states than are in that rosy scenario–Montana, the Dakotas, Missouri, possibly Georgia or Mississippi, Indiana, West Virginia, even Arizona.

If he does a markedly better job than Bush did in this first term, I think Obama could roll up LBJ type numbers in 2012.

By: jr

jr — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:39:40 +0000

“even if McCain loses he’s won the keys to my heart”-Mark Halperin

By: drinkof

drinkof — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:37:49 +0000

We should, of course, treat this as close, if for no other reason than we need a state or two extra in case they steal one again.

Having said that, NC will be extremely close, and I believe it’s going for Obama. New registrants. Many, many new registrants.

By: revenantive

revenantive — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:37:34 +0000

Here in Missouri, we’ve registered another 200,000 democratic voters. I know the polling in MO absolutely sucks right now, but I have a feeling that this state could swing.

I think cities of Saint Louis and Kansas City could put Obama over the top. When I drive around there are entire blocks filled with Obama signs.

The energy is here despite what the polls say. On a side note in the MO Governor’s race, Jay Nixon (D) is beating Kenny Holsolf (R) 54% to 39%. We’re hoping some of that support goes up the ticket to Barack.

The democratic party here in Missouri was split in 2004 because Senator McCaskil decided to run against our sitting democratic governor (Bob Holden) in the primaries and got the nomination only to lose to the boy wonder republican Matt Blunt (who is currently under investigation and NOT running for reelection, thank god.) Our party is still pretty divided 4 years later, but Jay Nixon has managed to put it back together again.

Btw, Senator McCaskil lost a LOT of points with select democrats (myself included) by running against Governor Holden in 2004. There was no love for her in 2006. She was just riding the wave and spent millions of her own money to close the gap. Unless she actually does something significant the next few years(other than being an early endorser of Barack Obama, which gained points in my book). I know a lot of democrats who won’t support her in the future because of the very bad taste left in their mouths during and after 2004. She’s very lucky she won in 2006.

We’re working hard here to get this state back into the blue column.