Right off the bat, I should note that I don’t have any particularly great skill at this. But then, neither do the vast majority of the talking heads on TV.
I think there’s an 85% chance Sen. Obama will win. That’s been my number for most of the election season. Right after the 2006 election that number was at 90%. If Sen. Clinton was the nominee my estimate would be at 80%. The only time I’ve felt the number was 80% was during the most recent dip in the polling, for what ever you want to make of that. By comparison, I thought 2004 was a 50-50 shot, and I thought 2000 was 70% likely for Gore. I figured no way America would be dumb enough to vote for Bush, and while on the raw numbers I was right, it was close enough to steal.
Here’s my current – and by current I mean right at this hour, it changes regularly depending on my mood and what I’ve had for lunch – map of how I best guess the election will turn out.
In this scenario, Sen. Obama would win 286-252, which funny enough is the result of the 2004 election. Right now I also think Sen. Obama will win the popular vote, thanks to his strength in big population states like CA and NY as well as increased black turnout across the board in places like GA, NC, SC, MD, LA, AL, MS which won’t help the electoral college but help the bottom line. Electoral-college wise I think the black vote will help in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. And the Hispanic vote in NV, CO and NM. I gave OH, NV, and FL to McCain in this map, though I could see either of those as Obama states, while I think McCain could flip NH or MI.
This is just a guess. And gut feeling. Anything can happen.
And purely for giggles, this 383-185 map is what Obama supporters dream of or see when they’re drunk as a skunk. A snowball’s chances in hell are far better than this happening, but a guy can dream.
Oliver I loves ya, but give Indiana a second look. I’d bet the $1.75 I have hidden in my couch that we’re going blue this year.
Are you sure about Georgia? No way it will flip. Lot’s of African Americans moving back to the south, and they are all registering to vote like crazy.
It maybe be a replay of the 1980 election. Carter and Reagan hung tight for most of the race but Reagan pulled out clearly ahead in the final weeks and it ended in sort of a landslide. Similar economic malaise, similar disguist with foreign policy, similar charismatic candidate versus a dour opponent.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Stay on target.
Your first analysis – the non-fantasy – strikes me as fair accurate. I wish I could share EL’s optimism, but I think it’ll be much closer, even with the current spate of problems for which the Republicans are getting credit. On a side note, it amazes me that under our electoral distribution it’s possible to win Texas and Florida and still lose by thirty.
What’s gone on in Florida since the Clinton years? Was it just that he was a southerner, or have their demographics shifted that much?
My map is similar to yours except I turn VA and NH red which gives us a 269 – 269 tie (depending on Nebraska Congressional districts).
I don’t know enough about the south to really justify my sending VA red but my gut tells me the south is the south.
As Oliver said: “I don’t have any particularly great skill at this. But then, neither do the vast majority of the talking heads on TV.”
Here in Missouri, we’ve registered another 200,000 democratic voters. I know the polling in MO absolutely sucks right now, but I have a feeling that this state could swing.
I think cities of Saint Louis and Kansas City could put Obama over the top. When I drive around there are entire blocks filled with Obama signs.
The energy is here despite what the polls say. On a side note in the MO Governor’s race, Jay Nixon (D) is beating Kenny Holsolf (R) 54% to 39%. We’re hoping some of that support goes up the ticket to Barack.
The democratic party here in Missouri was split in 2004 because Senator McCaskil decided to run against our sitting democratic governor (Bob Holden) in the primaries and got the nomination only to lose to the boy wonder republican Matt Blunt (who is currently under investigation and NOT running for reelection, thank god.) Our party is still pretty divided 4 years later, but Jay Nixon has managed to put it back together again.
Btw, Senator McCaskil lost a LOT of points with select democrats (myself included) by running against Governor Holden in 2004. There was no love for her in 2006. She was just riding the wave and spent millions of her own money to close the gap. Unless she actually does something significant the next few years(other than being an early endorser of Barack Obama, which gained points in my book). I know a lot of democrats who won’t support her in the future because of the very bad taste left in their mouths during and after 2004. She’s very lucky she won in 2006.
We’re working hard here to get this state back into the blue column.
We should, of course, treat this as close, if for no other reason than we need a state or two extra in case they steal one again.
Having said that, NC will be extremely close, and I believe it’s going for Obama. New registrants. Many, many new registrants.
“even if McCain loses he’s won the keys to my heart”-Mark Halperin
Actually, if Obama wins by 5% or more, he could pick up even more states than are in that rosy scenario–Montana, the Dakotas, Missouri, possibly Georgia or Mississippi, Indiana, West Virginia, even Arizona.
If he does a markedly better job than Bush did in this first term, I think Obama could roll up LBJ type numbers in 2012.
If he does a markedly better job than Bush did in this first term
A sock puppet could do that.
I think your second map is closer to what is going to happen. I’m sure you’ve already seen this site but in case you have not then here’s the link:
http://www.270towin.com/
It’s a cool ass interactive electoral college map.
I don’t think the second map is particularly outrageous; you aren’t even pushing Indiana over the line. Ohio and Florida are both very close, and if McCain doesn’t redefine the terms of the election they’ll probably go with the rest of the wave.
Candidates do decisively win sometimes, even Democrats. Just because it hasn’t happened in a long time doesn’t mean it’s not possible–in ‘06 literally everything that could swing our way did. (I don’t count Ford. That was always a pipe dream.)
Yep, I have a feeling Indiana’s going blue this year too. Keep an eye on us.
OW:
Not confident that Obama can win Ohio? I think Obama will win Ohio.
All I can say is Obama had better win Michigan.
I think you are correct, except for New Hampshire. I don’t like the polling numbers from that state.
Obama 375.
I think Obama can win Ohio, but it ain’t a lock. I think he will hold on to Michigan because of the economy.
He may actually lose Iowa Oliver, but Missouri and Colorado are in play. McCain will have to spend money and time in NC and Indiana, but he’ll take both.
I’m not seeing 300 for either one, but McCain looks to have reached the top of his parabola already, so if we can just keep it the way it is we’ve got a chance.
The Democrats have shifted their game away from the 50 state strategy this late in the day in favour of bulleting the swing states’ blue skies. That might make a difference somewhere like Ohio, which is anybody’s, or NH, which I’m very disappointed in. Even F*****a is back in contention.
Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt to have a strong defence against the October surprise.
Those damned latte-sipping liberal elites in Iowa! Seriously though, when Obama wins, are we going to see Sean Hannity pull up the map and say “Wow, look at all that blue!” ? That would be something!
flash forward to November:
OBAMA WINS, DOESN’T WANT JOB
Democratic Victor Changes Mind, Says Only a Masochist Would Serve
“Sorry, Bush Left Country in Too Colossal a Mess”
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
“Oh, and it wouldn’t hurt to have a strong defence against the October surprise.”
I think the October surprise this year will be a Republican sex scandal. Hopefully it will involve Palin, because I don’t think I could stomach the thought of McCain doing it doggie style on the Straight Talk Express.