’)Positive movement all over for Sen. Obama
# Colorado: Obama leads 49 – 45 percent, compared to 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama August 24;
# Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 – 44 percent, compared to 46 – 42 percent July 24;
# Minnesota: Obama leads 47 – 45 percent, compared to 46 – 44 percent July 24;
# Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 49 – 42 percent, compared to 50 – 39 percent July 24.
If the election comes down to Colorado and Sen. Obama wins, the decision to hold the convention there is going to look genius. Minnesota is closer than I would like to see it though (which may be a GOP convention effect).
According to what you just posted for Obama:
Colorado: now 4 — then -1 (gain 5)
Michigan: now 4 — then 4 (gain 0)
Minnesota: now 2 — then 2 (gain 0)
Wisconsin: now 7 — then 11 (gain -4)
And you write “positive movement all over”? Does the Oliver definition for “all over” means “one place”?
Actually I was referring to the fact that hes moved up in half of these.
These polls are all improvements from the averages Obama had been getting recently. (Maybe not Minnesota, that’s pretty close to the average.)
Quinnipiac only does the polls once a month, so the movement between polls for them is a little problematic given the number of major news items in the past 30 day. (Two conventions, a V.P. Pick, economic meltdown, etc.)
Now JWG, if you want to argue this is good news for McCain, please given you reasoning for that and I will be more than willing to debate you on that purpose.
There’s two things to look at. One is the spreads, but the other is that the undecideds are fewer now, and at a time when people are more likely to have made up their minds permanently, which leaves McCain less room to overcome Obama’s lead in those states.
Obama and McCain BOTH moved up in 3 polls and went down in 1.
According to your definition, BOTH candidates showed “positive movement all over.” Great analysis!
Colorado – excellent news for Obama (could win him the election).
Michigan – won by Gore & Kerry – Obama will probably win
Minnesota – won by Gore & Kerry (worth 1 more electoral vote than Colorado) – good news for Obama to hold – good news for McCain since within margin of error.
Wisconsin – won by Gore & Kerry (barely) – Obama losing ground? Will most likely win anyway.
Colorado is looking like a safe pick-up for Obama. If he wins here, New Mexico, and Iowa while holding all of Kerry’s states, he wins. Even if Obama loses New Hampshire, it is still a tie and Obama will likely win the tie.
As for the three states Kerry won that were polled here, Obama is polling better than Kerry’s final win it two of the three, and the lone exception is Minnesota, where the Republicans had their convention. And even there it is by just 1 point.
If the best McCain can hope for is running as close as Bush in one of four key swing states, then he is in serious trouble.
I live in MN, and I see zero Obama adds on tv here. Lots for McCain though. Same goes for yard signs and billboards.
I keep reading that Obama is doing well here, but I hardly think it’s a lock. I have to wonder how much he’d be up if his campaign actually advertised here.
According to the data on the undecideds at the cite:
Colorado – no change at 5% (good for Obama)
Michigan – down 2 to 7% (good for Obama)
Minnesota – down 2 to 6% (good for McCain)
Wisconsin – down 2 to 7% (good movement for McCain but it won’t be enough)
Obama spin = Obama can pick up Colorado and win election
McCain spin – McCain can trade Colorado for Minnesota and gain 1 extra electoral vote
“McCain spin – McCain can trade Colorado for Minnesota and gain 1 extra electoral vote”
Except that spin is based on the assumption that he can turn things around, despite having no movement here even with the convention in the state.
Obama’s spin is based on the assumption that the dynamics of the race don’t change. from now till election day.
Granted, neither assumption is safe, but the former is safer than the latter.
McCain has moved up as much as Obama since the conventions, is within the margin of error with 6% undecided. Additionally, McCain has increased by 8 since the end of June and continues increasing while Obama is down 7 during the same period. That’s not “no movement.”
Obama has a real chance in Colorado but still it will be close.
Denver and Boulder are solid Obama with lots of campaign signs and buttons. I receive a lot of positive feedback for button and not much (not any) negative. The few Republicans I know seem pretty discouraged and not overly enamored with Palin.
Colorado Springs and El Paso County are of course very Republican not much footage down there for Obama. the same holds true for Denver’s southern suburbs in Douglas County.
Pueblo gets some GOP spillover from ColoSpgs to the north but has an industrial/labor heritage from the old CF&I steel mill and a large Hispanic population. The Hispanic populations in Pueblo and the San Luis Valley are multi-generational with some families having roots extending before statehood. They have trended conservative but are being alienated by the racist rhetoric of the GOP’s anti-immigrant wing. Since some of these families have been in Colorado for close to 200 years you can understand how the GOP can loose them. Both of the Salazar brothers grew up in the San Luis valley as well.
The mountains counties can go either way. There are many staunch libertarians (fiscal and social) who have mostly trended GOP. These libertarians are mostly ranchers and the Taliban wing of the GOP has been pushing them away. The other major mountain community block is very environmentally conscious and naturally leans Democratic. Udall is polling well on the West Slope and could deliver for Obama.
I would think the eastern plains are out of reach but they might surprise. The last two Democratic Governors of Colorado (Ritter and Romer) have been from the plains.
The Colorado GOP has been in disarray since 2004. While Kerry lost both Salazar brothers won. Since then we have taken the governor’s office, held both state houses and held a 4-7 US House advantage. There is not a strong GOP leader in state. Bob Schaffer, the GOP Senate candidate, seems to be running an aimless campaign.
The state trends Democratic. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th districts should remain Democratic with the 5th and 6th staying Republican. The 4th is competitive. Musgrave won a squeaker in 2006 and is in a close race against Betsy Markey. I’m thinking Musgrave will win another squeaker.
I think Colorado will come down to turnout. Jon Stewart really hit the nail on the head when he said there’s no middle ground in Colorado “In Colorado, you’re either a rapture-awaiting promise keeper, or you drive a car that runs on gorp”
JWG, do you not understand how elections work? We’re not trying to beat a point spread here, the point is getting a majority or at least a plurality, and in Colorado, Obama is one percent away from an unassailable majority. McCain is 5 percent away. If undecideds are only at 5%, that means McCain has to win them all, whereas Obama only needs 20% of them. Likewise in Minnesota, McCain has to wrap up more than twice as many remaining votes as Obama (according to this poll anyway) to get a plurality, whereas Obama only needs half the undecided votes to get a majority. It looks like a hard row to hoe for McCain in those states.
You can talk about movement in terms of comparative raw percentages all you want, but that doesn’t translate into likelihood of victory unless you explain how McCain is going to split the undecideds so he gets 70-80% of them this late in the game when these two polls shows they’ve been splitting them closer to 50% or even better for Obama in every state save for Wisconsin, where McCain has the most to make up.