Comments on: Florida, Florida

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 00:13:54 +0000

“a 300 Ev win grants more legitimacy. ”

And this is not just about legitimacy, it is about crushing the GOP. If McCain is embarrassed, we might see the evangelicals say, ‘Told you so! If you ignore us, the GOP loses.’ And this could be the beginning of a revolt, which would tear apart the GOP.

They could split into two: The Social Conservatives and the Economic Conservatives. Or into three: The GOD Party, The NeoCons, and the Normal People. The last one would be the smallest group.

By: MobiusKlein

MobiusKlein — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 23:40:53 +0000

Still worth it to win FL, even if not strictly required for Obama.

a 300 Ev win grants more legitimacy. also, 300 EVs mean any one recount won’t flip it. (not counting CA / NY / TX which are locks.)

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 20:27:20 +0000

“Though McCain is within the margins of error, winning both Pennsylvania and Minnesota without winning Florida is arguably unrealistic.”

Exactly.

Also, RCP has all three states trending towards Obama at the moment.

By: ed

ed — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 20:19:21 +0000

lots of established voter suppression in the sunshine state. That one’s gonna be tough.

By: JWG

JWG — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 19:36:41 +0000

If Obama wins Florida

You’re probably right.

Although, McCain can trade Florida for Pennsylvania and Minnesota according to the map at realclearpolitics and still tie under the “no toss ups” map.

Though McCain is within the margins of error, winning both Pennsylvania and Minnesota without winning Florida is arguably unrealistic.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 18:58:58 +0000

If Obama wins Florida, it’s game over for McCain. I can’t see a realistic way for McCain to win without Florida.