Now for the second time within a week comes a poll showing Florida essentially tied up with Sen. Obama with the lead (within the margin of error).
Some interesting notes from inside the poll.
* Obama has a 6 point lead in the Tampa area. That’s good, because simply relying on the Dem strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward, and to a lesser extent Dade counties down south would make him come up short.
* McCain only leads by 6 with latinos. By comparison in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 12% in that demographic.
* Obama leads McCain 88-5 among blacks with 7% undecided…
If Obama wins Florida, it’s game over for McCain. I can’t see a realistic way for McCain to win without Florida.
You’re probably right.
Although, McCain can trade Florida for Pennsylvania and Minnesota according to the map at realclearpolitics and still tie under the “no toss ups” map.
Though McCain is within the margins of error, winning both Pennsylvania and Minnesota without winning Florida is arguably unrealistic.
lots of established voter suppression in the sunshine state. That one’s gonna be tough.
“Though McCain is within the margins of error, winning both Pennsylvania and Minnesota without winning Florida is arguably unrealistic.”
Exactly.
Also, RCP has all three states trending towards Obama at the moment.
Still worth it to win FL, even if not strictly required for Obama.
a 300 Ev win grants more legitimacy. also, 300 EVs mean any one recount won’t flip it. (not counting CA / NY / TX which are locks.)
“a 300 Ev win grants more legitimacy. ”
And this is not just about legitimacy, it is about crushing the GOP. If McCain is embarrassed, we might see the evangelicals say, ‘Told you so! If you ignore us, the GOP loses.’ And this could be the beginning of a revolt, which would tear apart the GOP.
They could split into two: The Social Conservatives and the Economic Conservatives. Or into three: The GOD Party, The NeoCons, and the Normal People. The last one would be the smallest group.