“Maybe, black turnout will be up nationally by a percentage point or two this year”
Perhaps I’m being overly optimistic, but my gut feeling is that the very real chance of the first black president ever will increase the vote among blacks by more than a mere percent or two (and we’ll likely have a historically low amount of black voters for the GOP, down from the record high of 2004).
I think pollsters are underestimated the black vote this year. In fact, I think they are underestimated Hispanic vote as well. I think that’s going up.
I’ve seen some state polls that have the black vote going down this year. That’s fucking madness.
The actual number of blacks voting this election will increase by 10%-15%. That means that a 1%-3% increase will be counted.
Black turnout in NC will be up 20% this year.
1-3 percentage points of the total turnout, maybe. 1-3% over the ‘04 black voter turnout?
Crazy talk.