In one poll, at least. I still think FL and VA are the only true winnable southern states, but at the end of the day I still like the idea that McCain has to spend money in a state that went for Bush by 12% in 2004.
Of note in this poll:
* Obama wins urban votes (no surprise), suburbs, and ties in small towns. McCain wins rural votes 2-1.
* McCain wins white vote 58-33, Obama wins black vote 90-4 (hey, 6 percenters, get off the stick!) and “Other” goes Obama 49-37. I’m assuming thats hispanic/asian/etc.
* Bob Barr is at 5%. That’s got to be eating into McCain’s lead. I wonder if Barr might do damage in North Carolina/Georgia but be a blip nationally.
* Liddy Dole is down by 5%.
Caveats: It’s just one poll, others show a larger lead for McCain (though this poll is the most recent), it’s the south, etc.
A friend of mine who was doing some work for the Obama campaign said something along the lines of, look, realistically we can’t expect McCain to lose Arizona, but we CAN force him to spend money here.
The Obama campaign is spending money here in NC, and forcing McCain to do the same.
Don’t write it off. There was a serious registration run (225k) prior to the primary (yes, the contested primary helped), and 80% of it was Obama driven. There’s no sign that they have slowed down, at all, so let’s say really conservatively they get a 250k Obama registration margin before it’s all over.
a) Virtually every recent registrant will vote.
b) Kerry had zero enthusiasm here, with Edwards adding almost nothing to that.
c) Enthusiasm, and organizing, for Obama is strong.
d) Continued migration into NC brings in somewhat more Democrats than Republicans.
e) The Palin brand of conservatism is not particularly strong here. I had a recent conversation with a relatively conservative friend whose basic reaction was ‘hmph, a creationist. just what we need to make our kids stupid.’
f) Kerry did zero advertising and campaigning in NC.
g) State level candidates acted like they didn’t know Kerry in 2004. Gubernatorial and Senate candidates (both women, incidentally) endorsed Obama pre-primary, and if not gluing themselves to him, are maintaining solidarity.
NC will, at a minimum, be close. The registration bump alone makes up for 2/3 of the margin from last time. I’m actually optimistic.
Entirely anecdotal, but I live in NC, and have been noticing the bumper sticker count. I see dozens if not hundreds of Obama stickers every day as I drive around the Raleigh-Durham area. Up till the Palin pick, I had seen exactly THREE McCain stickers. Now, the considerable population of Evangelicals around here are starting to sport McCain stickers, but they are still far fewer than Obama’s. I see more “Nobama” stickers than McCain stickers. The number of leftover “Bush-Cheney 04″ stickers outnumber both.
Like I said, entirely anecdotal, but it gives me some optimism.
If Obama wins North Carolina, he wins by 100 EC votes, so it won’t matter. However, I think that if he can force McCain to spend money and time here, it will result in two things happening…
1.) The obvious… McCain will be spending less time in Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana, and other states that are closer.
2.) The less obvious… helping Hagan defeat Dole, and moving one step closer to 60 in the Senate.
Now, I don’t think they will get to 60 in the Senate, but I think they will get close enough that Republicans up for re-election in 2010 will be unwilling to filibuster important bills. Also, 2010 doesn’t look that much better than 2008 in terms of the number of vulnerable seats Republicans will have to defend.
Nice, thoughtful comment, Howard. You’re a mental giant amongst us.
Who’s Howard?
“Who’s Howard?”
He’s a duck.