In the meantime, over at the Iowa Electronic Market (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html), which tends to be less volatile than Intrade, he was never behind. In the winner-take-all market, it now stands at roughly 60-40, which is where it has been for a long time, except for a little dip down to 55-45 last week. In the vote share market, which aims to predict the real outcome of the election, it’s roughly 52-48, which is more or less where it has been ever since the conventions.

Not to get complacent, but the stability of the Iowa markets should give us some comfort.