I’m seeing that Sen. McCain has a bounce in some of the polls (the reputable ones – anyone who cites Zogbys voodoo Internet polls is getting played). I saw that show week before last, when Sen. Obama got his poll bump. The Obama camp (and observers like me) didn’t trumpet this because when your party gets a week of free advertising it tends to happen.
The Obama camp isn’t freaking out, just like they didn’t freak when Sen. Clinton led by 30+. They have a plan, and while I expect cons & the MSM to make a lotta noise, folks on the left just have to relax.
Worrying doesn’t do anybody any good. Knocking on doors and making phone calls, on the other hand, can make a difference.
You know, I’ve been saying this for weeks. There are so many liberals and others who are just convinced that the Republicans are going to win, even as they pick a very weak VP candidate, hide her away from the press, run a 72 has-been Senator for President who almost daily piddles himself verbally, and lie-lie-lie their way through the campaign. I have read in various places on the internet that Obama is just ignorant to make this or that statement, that he has displayed weakness by not doing this or that against the Republicans, that he has made the wrong move for calling out Gov. Palin’s lie on the Bridge to Nowhere. It goes on and on and on.
I realize many liberals are scared silly that, despite all the realities running against the Republicans, they will somehow eke out a win in November for the White House. I don’t buy it. I trust Obama, who has run a smart, deft campaign for over a year and a half.
I would rather be two points behind with 15 minutes left than two points ahead.
The best thing that one can do is to pick a swing state within 75 miles of one’s house, and give a few weekends. (Obviously, if you live in one, great.) Direct contact with campaign workers does a lot of things; it humanizes a campaign, makes the voter a little more immune to wingnut spin and Muslim/pedophile/Martian/whatever rumors that rile up the old folks, sometimes gets a supporter, sometimes gets a donation, sometimes might make a weak opponent voter decide to stay home. It also conveys the opposite of what Josh Marshall calls the “b_____ slap theory of politics” – that by showing activity and vitality, the candidate looks better in a “meta” sense. Winning attitudes beget winning attitudes beget winning attittudes.
It also gives back useful feedback. If your candidate is doing something counterproductive, your field workers may hear it before the polls do, or ever do.
Please, if you find a liberal either who claims this is in like Flynn OR that it’s futile, slap them and bill me for the service. It’s the start of the 4th quarter and we are two points behind.
I am not saying it’s the end of the world, nor am I conceding the election. I am not scared, nor am I freaking out.
I am just depressed. Depressed for a host of reasons. Including but not limited to the fact that I live in a country where a show like the RNC doesn’t condemn that party to decades in the wilderness, where a complete fraud like McCain can select another complete fraud like Palin as his running mate and have it declared a great move, where the people that live here apparently like this stuff and think four more years of right-wing rule is a good idea.
As I said in another thread, this looks like a re-run of 2000 and 2004 only this time we have a significantly more charismatic candidate and a seriously better qualified VP candidate. I do not think it is going to work, though I am willing to believe it might.
This is McCain’s race to lose. He might well screw up, but my guess is that he is going to be completely walled off, like Bush was in 2000, and that the corporate press/media is going to let him do it. In the meantime, Obama and Biden will constantly have their patriotism challenged, every right-wing notion will be promoted by the CP/M, and the debates are going to be completely disastrous for our side because both our candidates will soundly beat their opponents and thus prove that they are elitist meanies who don’t love America.
I don’t worry about polls. Zogby took money from Alex Jones to say Ron Paul was “the only candidate who could beat Hillary”
Code Pink, Code Pink… McCain just shot up 10% in the polls
Sarah P is the true change agent
GOP is the Americas original OG’s
We Cant be Stop!
This was going to be a Democrat Year?
I have to respectfully disagree with Mr. Powell. This isn’t McCain’s race to lose. This cycle has largely been a referendum on Obama. Right now there is still the post-Palin buzz, which will eventually turn into a hangover once, finally, some questions are pressed. I agree with Oliver. Obama has run a terrific campaign to this point, and they have a plan. I don’t understand the collective amnesia that sets in about polls. Didn’t we go through this in the primaries? We have to look at the state by states, and I really think this whole cell phone aspect of polls does suppress Obama’s numbers. That, and I firmly believe minorities will come out in record numbers. Everything’s gonna be alright.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7K0Dp2M2fE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65I0HNvTDH4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6RNjSdZKxA
clearly, this poll is good news for Barack. Here’s where I pretend to be a multi-million dollar pundit by saying “the debates will be key”.
Oh, and we FINALLY got power back…
I’m so glad to see somebody say this. At this point, can’t we give the Obama campaign a little credit and not assume the wheels are coming off because the Republicans got a totally predictable bounce out of their convention? Nobody’s going to stop Obama. If the Clintons couldn’t do it, McCain sure can’t. Even with the help of a squeaky-voiced hockey-mom. Even if she’s real, real purty.
Look at the electoral map at http://electoral-vote.com./evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep07.html. In 2004, on September 7, Bush was ahead by 38 electoral votes. He would eventually win by 34. Today, Obama is ahead by 77 votes, and the states in his corner are leaning more strongly toward him than those that were leaning toward Kerry in 2004.
I’m not worried. I’m not complacent and I’m not cocky, but I’m not going to let the traditional media, with its vested interest in marketing every election as a “nail-biter,” or the right-wing propaganda machine, with its lies and disdain for reality, disconcert me. History is on our side, the American people have had enough, the Reagan revolution is over, and Barack Hussein Obama will be our next president.
clearly, this poll is good news for Barack
I’m not sure if you’re being clever or you don’t get the joke. See, we on the left don’t think bad news for Obama is good news for him. But the media and the right thinks every bit of bad news for McCain is great news for him.
I’m not worried about the polls (especially since McCain has a HUGE series of hills to climb on the electoral map); what I am worried about and am really kind of fed up with are the whiny-ass titty babies on OUR side. I’m talking especially about the bloggers on Hullaballoo and Firedoglake, who I normally love but who seem to think that if every Obama/Biden surrogate (not to mention Obama and Biden themselves) aren’t screaming “MCCAIN AND PALIN WILL KILL YOU, YOU A-HOLES! VOTE FOR OBAMA!!!” at the top of their lungs close enough to swing voters to feel their spittle when they scream, that they’re doomed to losing.
And it’s barely the first week of September.
USA Today Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of /— 3 points for both samples.
His community organizing shouldn’t be made fun of. He considered joining the military back in 1980 (uh huhh). He finally admits the Surge was extremely successful. And he’s now resorting back to the race card to stop the bleeding his internals surely must be flashing at him in panic mode.
Nobody’s going to stop Obama. If the Clintons couldn’t do it, McCain sure can’t.
I’m in agreement with this statement and, as always, I’m volunteering for the campaign, making phone calls and registering voters.
Obama/Biden 08
P.S. Obama supporters should send the following voter registration link to everyone on their mailing lists
https://www.voteforchange.com/
I’m not panicking yet, but getting damn close. McCain has a 10% lead in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll as cited above. That’s a 17% or 13% change since their most recent survey depending on which poll you use. That is way beyond any anticipated convention bounce. There is obviously something else going on here. McCain shattered the 50% threshold and now stands at 54%. This thing may not have stabilized yet and could tilt even further in the direction of McCain/Palin before the dust settles.
I seriously doubt the convention energized many people, especially independents. The only logical explanation is McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin. I am truly stunned that millions of voters are deciding to now support the McCain after his selection of the most unqualified VP running mate in modern history. Are people really that stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is a clear and resounding “yes they really are that stupid.”
Obama has his work cut out for him. I don’t really see a “game-changer” before election day. Expectations are already so low for McCain and Palin in the debates that they are almost guaranteed to exceed these artificially low expectations. It is troubling to see Obama falling behind in a year where he should be absolutely clobbering McCain. If we can’t win this year, then I’m not sure when another Democrat will occupy the White House. Although I was very upset with Hillary’s behavior during the primary, Obama has got to be wondering if he blew the VP choice. I think an Obama/Clinton ticket would have been absolutely unbeatable. I hope this motivates Barrack to take the gloves off and start getting aggressive. I still have some hope left, but the clock is ticking..
http://crazytruthdaily.blogspot.com
http://punkednewsdaily.blogspot.com
I’m not sure if you’re being clever or you don’t get the joke.
It’s been a LOOOOOONG week and I’m clearly off my game. I’ll try and do better next time.
This slight lead by McCain is a probably great motivation for Democrats to get off their duffs and get going campaigning.
Obama is finally listening to a lot of us and emphasizing the Republican-built economy that is shafting most of us in exchange for unlimited profits for a few in the financial industry (unfortunately, “hedge funders” which are also in the Democrat as well as Republican camps). I fear McCain as his advisors like Phil Gramm want to continue the War on the Middle Class (otherwise known as the ‘war on terror’).
I don’t think more money for Obama is needed…now it’s feet on the pavement going door to door getting out the vote. And poll watchers are needed to protect the polls from being closed down or ‘limited’ by Republicans.
Two advantages for Obama: Economic dysfunction with his solutions and greater voter activity. Don’t think for a minute that this won’t be a close election and Obama’s got an up hill battle with Sara the gun girl playing well in ‘battleground states such as Penn, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Hampshire and above all Ohio….where goes Ohio, goes the election. The Republicans are fully aware of this and that’s why Palin is a good choice for McCain. I am afraid Obama played it too safe with Biden. Another woman would have been good on his ticket.
p.s. I don’t think Hillary would have done any better. Republicans always have the advantage with the military on their side and big networks bending to their will.
If any of you know voters who are infatuated with Palin, direct them to this link or, maybe better, print it out and distribute. It gives an up-close-and-personal look at their new princess, and forecasts the kind of President we stand to inherit should McSame expire in office:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anne-kilkenny/about-sarah-palin_b_124528.html
(living here in Manhattan (NY, not Kansas), I don’t even KNOW of anyone tempted to vote for McCain. Closest state for volunteerism is PA)
My concern is that one should never underestimate the power of momentum. Obama needs something, ANYTHING, that can get hm back on the front page. At the moment, its all McCain and Palin, rightly or wrongly. My hope (futile as it may be) is that Palin’s first interview on Thursday will be gaff-tastic and get us some “how many houses?” lines.
While the electoral map is encouraging, remember the onus is on Obama. All McCain has to do is play defense and win all of Bushes’ states. Obama has to win Kerry’s plus some extra.
Given the tightness of the race, I’m nervous.
Thanks, Oliver.
Are “they” polling folks w/ cell phones?
I didn’t think so.
[...] As Oliver Willis points out though, this is not the end of the world; it’s just a bounce. [...]
“Unfortunately, the answer is a clear and resounding ‘yes they really are that stupid.’”
Of course, referring to voters as “stupid” when they don’t agree with you, isn’t going to help either.
Are “they” polling folks w/ cell phones?
Yeah, that excuse never hunts with me. I heard it in 2000 and 2004 and it doesn’t seem to make a difference in the polls, it didn’t even matter in the Dem primaries/caucuses. I’m saying people shouldn’t freak out over a bounce in the polling that was supposed to happen, but don’t pretend as if the race isn’t going to be tight.
“I’m saying people shouldn’t freak out over a bounce in the polling that was supposed to happen, but don’t pretend as if the race isn’t going to be tight.”
A bunch of state polls came out and McCain gained an average of 0.1% in the swing state.
0.1%.
Obama needs to hit McCain in his Mavericks to end the fight, but I still like his chances come November.