’)You would think some people slept through the last year the way they’re reacting to the just released Zogby poll showing a 5% “lead” for McCain.
Let’s go go the tape:
Georgia Primary
Zogby: 48% Obama 28% Clinton
Reality: 66% Obama 31% Clinton
New Jersey Primary
Zogby: 43% Clinton 42% Obama
Reality: Clinton 53% Obama 43%
California Primary
Zogby: Clinton 41% Obama 45%
Reality: Clinton 52% Obama 45%
And on and on. It’s not that Zogby has a bias for or against one candidate, it’s not that his polling favors one or the other… it’s just that Zogby’s polling ain’t very good. In all likelihood the race nationally is even with probably a slight favoring of Obama, but the freaking out from people is really without serious merit.
Of course, I think it’s best when the press and the right underestimates Sen. Obama.
Plus, take into account that polling firms call listed numbers. Younger people are more likely to have unlisted numbers, and thus you have that skew towards older voters. Obama should not get lazy, and I’ve been thinking he’s been far too restrained, but don’t hit the panic button yet.
I’m sure back in the 1980’s there’s was a polling firm out there that says, “Mr. Chairman, this New Coke is testing like crazy. Go with it.”
All well and good, but I’m kind of surprised at all the apologetics going on right now for Obama.
Fact is, you can’t argue that he’s lost momentum. Granted, he took a well-deserved vacation, but I’m worried that he’s falling into the lazy and/or ignorant habits of Kerry 2004 re: Republican attacks.
His campaign needs to start swinging back extra hard and extra fast.
Hopefully it’s just an August thing, but IMO Obama’s people have been really lackluster as of late. And if this keeps up, he loses in November. Simple as that.
Shorter version of me: Can we forget about the polling and realize that Team Obama has kind of sucked for the past month? And no amount of meta-critique of Zogby will change that?
I’ll be the first to admit that polls in August do not an election make. And Zogby (ever since 1996) has been more erratically inconsistent than most. And that getting cocky over this would be the absolute WORST response.
The point is that this is simply another piece of data that is increasingly showing a weakening in Obama’s numbers. Doesn’t mean he’s lost (or that he’s even officially “losing” … yet). But the trend line is unmistakable.
The trend line is that the race is tightening. And then next week Obama should get a little bump from the convention and McCain will have his the week before.
His campaign needs to start swinging back extra hard and extra fast.
They have, but it’s hard to hear over the histrionics of some his supporters right now.
Let’s agree to disagree OW.
McCain has given plenty of ammunition over to Team Obama over the past month, and they haven’t used it. Further, they truly have been Kerry-esque in responding to the smears and slurs. I know he was on vacation and all, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done a better job of playing goalie.
Let’s not hesitate to criticize when necessary, lest we wake up to the nightmare of a de facto 3rd term for Bush in November. I don’t think anyone needs to be fired, but I’d like to think Obama is doing some yelling right now and in the coming weeks behind closed doors.
Don’t bother reasoning with OW Jaim. He is currently working his way “up” obama, in hopes of a cushy government job come January. (How scary is it when your goal in life is to a low level appointed government employee)
He will speak no ill of The Obama……
Good article!
I used to get and participate in some of Zogby’s polls early last year- but they didn’t invite me anymore because I ended up always complaining about the bizarre way the questions were formed. They’ve always been way way off, and so have most of the other s including Gallup.
There are so many bizarre facts and figures in these polls: headlines say Obama is still weak among white men. Well so is McCain – Bush had more then he does right now.
Is MCCain not white enough?
Obama is only 5 points off from Kerr y. And he has more whites in the South than John Edwards did .
It’s who ordered the poll or article that counts, not the contents.
Yep, I’ve never criticized Sen. Obama and his campaign, no sirreee. I hope to be the Monica Goodling of the Obama administration!
Well you are off to a good start…strong work.
Thank you for this post – a nice splash of cold water just as I start to panic…
CalKate-
A little something for you.
Zogby polls have in the past been notoriously faulty, but he has been consistent in polling methods. In any event, when a chart of Obama’s polling trend line starts to look like the northern border of the state of Virginia, it might be time to put one of those keys on your keyboard.
He’s not quite to the Chesapeake Bay, but definitely has a good view of the Potomac River. I’d put him just a bit south of Mt. Vernon.
John Zogby doesn’t know anything:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=147324&title=john-zogby
Thank you for educating. I was soooo depressed yesturday when I heard the annoucement. I hope Obama steps it up…I can’t live here if McCain wins.
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