Comments on: Poll Watching

By: Parthenon

Parthenon — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 22:59:27 +0000

It’s a little specious to talk of a massacre in American elections anytime. You won with the approval of 35% of the electorate! Yay!

By: Duros62

Duros62 — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 22:00:00 +0000

And the tale of a Democratic squandering an early summer lead isn’t unprecedented (Kerry, Dukakis). Not this time. Resist the polls. They do nothing.

By: Texas Pete

Texas Pete — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 21:24:42 +0000

And meanwhile, the Iowa Electronic Market has not budged in weeks. All of those people who put their own money into predicting the election are not impressed: The market is at 64% Obama, 36% McCain, right where it has been almost since the nominations were assured. Until that starts to move, there is nothing to talk about.

By: SpiderJ

SpiderJ — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 21:06:45 +0000

Actually, there are no tales of Democratics squandering summer leads. Democrats, sure. But not Democratics.

By: SaveFarris

SaveFarris — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 20:43:03 +0000

The reason they’re saying “OMG It’s Tied” is because 2 weeks ago Obama was ahead anywhere from 5-10 points. And the tale of a Democratic squandering an early summer lead isn’t unprecedented (Kerry, Dukakis).

Though I agree with the sentiment that the numbers won’t mean much of anything (if they ever do) until a month from now when both candidates have VPs and both conventions have ended.

By: jerry

jerry — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:56:11 +0000

Over at Kevin Drum’s site, he’s talking about electoral college predictions, and it seems to be an electoral college massacre.

I don’t follow this stuff closely enough to know if the margin Kevin’s source is predicting is actually a massacre or not, or remember if an electoral college massacre translates into a popular view that the election was a massacre.

But it’s good to know, and important to remember that it’s the electoral college that’s important.

That said, I wish we would end the electoral college.