Right now the press is all OMG McCain and Obama are close/tied! Then during the convention it will be OMG Obama Is Ahead! Then with the Republican convention it will be OMG They’re Tied Again, Or McCain is Leading! Then… we actually get to vote.
Breaking News
Oprah Quitting TV Show In 2011
Over at Kevin Drum’s site, he’s talking about electoral college predictions, and it seems to be an electoral college massacre.
I don’t follow this stuff closely enough to know if the margin Kevin’s source is predicting is actually a massacre or not, or remember if an electoral college massacre translates into a popular view that the election was a massacre.
But it’s good to know, and important to remember that it’s the electoral college that’s important.
That said, I wish we would end the electoral college.
The reason they’re saying “OMG It’s Tied” is because 2 weeks ago Obama was ahead anywhere from 5-10 points. And the tale of a Democratic squandering an early summer lead isn’t unprecedented (Kerry, Dukakis).
Though I agree with the sentiment that the numbers won’t mean much of anything (if they ever do) until a month from now when both candidates have VPs and both conventions have ended.
Actually, there are no tales of Democratics squandering summer leads. Democrats, sure. But not Democratics.
And meanwhile, the Iowa Electronic Market has not budged in weeks. All of those people who put their own money into predicting the election are not impressed: The market is at 64% Obama, 36% McCain, right where it has been almost since the nominations were assured. Until that starts to move, there is nothing to talk about.
And the tale of a Democratic squandering an early summer lead isn’t unprecedented (Kerry, Dukakis).
Not this time.
Resist the polls. They do nothing.
It’s a little specious to talk of a massacre in American elections anytime. You won with the approval of 35% of the electorate! Yay!