The Tancredo Effect

1:19 am EST June 12th, 2008 | Republicans | 6 Comments

The NBC/WSJ poll shows the hispanic vote going 62-28 for Obama, which echoes the similar double digit drop from the Gallup poll. The Republican party’s embrace of xenophobia may turn out to have the same demographic effect that adopting the southern strategy had for the GOP. It may be a generation before Republicans can contest for the hispanic vote again (I’m curious what the Cuban American vote in Florida looks like), and even more worrisome for them – unlike the black vote that’s mostly stagnant at about 13-15%, the hispanic vote is increasing.

Of course, as the amount of Hispanics in America increases, the more intolerant conservative rhetoric becomes. It’s almost like they keep throwing the ball to our best cornerback no matter what the formation is.

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6 Responses to “The Tancredo Effect”

  1. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    June 12, 2008 at 3:51 am

    “Of course, as the amount of Hispanics in America increases, the more intolerant conservative rhetoric becomes.”

    Like when O’Reilly said liberals supported illegal immigrants because they wanted to destroy the white, Christian power based in America.

  2. ed says:
    June 12, 2008 at 6:28 am

    “It may be a generation before Republicans can contest for the hispanic vote again ”

    From your mouth to God’s ear.

  3. anotherbozo says:
    June 12, 2008 at 7:22 am

    This poll just destroys the canard that Obama is going to need all Clinton’s coaxing to get this populace into the tent by November. Also encouraging is that Obama has a 7-point advantage (46-39) among white women, and that “it is white women that usually decide the race.”

    White men are still more numerous around McCain (55-35), but I say even the dumbest part of the electorate will come around eventually, once the facts penetrate…

  4. tommy says:
    June 12, 2008 at 10:57 am

    This poll just destroys the canard that Obama is going to need all Clinton’s coaxing to get this populace into the tent by November.

    Lets hope the corporate Press actually remembers the poll. On Monday’s Hardball (I think it was Monday) Matthews and someone else were saying how Obama’s big problems with Hispanic voters might cost him the election and there was no way he was going win the mountain West states unless Hillary was his VP.

  5. Parthenon says:
    June 12, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    One can get almost halfway to the White House winning three states – California, Texas and Florida – that are about 36 percent, 36 percent and 20 percent Hispanic, respectively, and rising.

    If I’m a Republican strategist right now I’m either thinking really hard about how I can counter my party’s image or I’m thinking about ceding the white house for a generation or so.

  6. Porlock Junior says:
    June 14, 2008 at 2:21 am

    I was going to say that it was only a few weeks ago that everyone knew Obama was a hopeless candidate because the Blacks and the Latins hate each other so much; but tommy corrects this in advance. It was *days* ago.

    I do so love that poll, in which Latins tie with women who voted for Clinton as the two massively pro-Obama groups. I am pretending to be not in the least surprised, not feeling even little relieved, that these two groups I respect have their heads screwed on so straight.

    It’s especially funny in California, where a few years ago there was a movement to show that Latino/Latina voters were Natural Republican Voters: strong family values and all that. So naturally the Party did everything it could to make them hate it.