This is surely another gift for John Sidney McCain.
The American unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent last month, the government said on Friday, the biggest increase in more than two decades. The report was the latestsign that workers face a darker outlook even as they struggle to cope with the housing slump and high energy prices that have cut into their spending power.
Employers also shed 49,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a statement. Payrolls have shrunk every month this year, the worst losing streak since 2003. Manufacturers, construction companies and the retail sector were the hardest hit, as businesses struggled with lower demand and looked to cut costs.
Let’s see… a bunch of high school and college graduates hit the job market AND the minimum wage has gone up about 14% in the last year, so we should be surprised at this?
I’m surprised nobody predicted this when the minimum wage hike was being kicked around last year.
Oh, yeah, some of us did. And were told we were wrong.
Could you explain that one again, please?
J.
Women and Minorities were the hardest hit
/fixed
Yes, keep fiddling as Rome burns.
“Fiddling while Rome burns.”
I like that phrase.
It sums up the Democrats’ refusal to allow domestic oil drilling and new refineries quite well.
Which, of course, I’m certain has absolutely nothing to do with the current oil prices…
J.
Actually, no, it doesn’t.
It sums up the Democrats’ refusal to allow domestic oil drilling and new refineries quite well.
Look over there!!!
Oliver, please use your fantastic economic understanding to explain how a loss of 49,000 jobs results in an huge increase of 0.4% unemployment without referencing summer jobs, teenagers, and the mandatory rise of minimum wage which you championed.
Summer hasn’t started yet, and so they have not been counted yet?
Actually, Duros, it falls under the category of “open up a second front,” or — as James Carville said once — “when your opponent is drowning, throw the son-of-a-bitch an anchor.”
Oliver tried a flat out-and-out denial, with no attempt to explain his statement other than “no” and a cheap phrase, so I turned his cliche’ back on him with another aspect of the Democrats’ mismanagement of the economy.
See also: “piling on.”
And I stand by my original statement: the combination of high school and college graduates hitting the job market alongside a major hike in the minimum wage certainly played a very large factor in the “Republican Recession” — as ably brought to you by “the most ethical Congress in history.”
Is William Jefferson available for comment?
J.
Jay Tea, are you familiar with the seasonal adjustments they use to compile those rates?
Also, see the recent history:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
Note that previous April / May transitions do not show a bump up, as would be implied by your theory of High School Grads Flooding the Market.
Man, you are flailing, Jay.
Hey, I don’t know shit about economics, but I can safely bet that the summer job force is not out yet.
You still look like Kevin Bacon from Animal House.
“Remain calm! All is well!”
It sums up the Democrats’ refusal to allow domestic oil drilling and new refineries quite well.
No one has even applied for a permit to build a new refinery in 7 years. domestic oil production would last about 14 weeks, given our present consumption.
And Oliver is right, it sums up no such thing.
Actually, Duros, it falls under the category of “open up a second front,”
Oh, I see. Cuz for a second there it looked like you were just changing the subject.
Mobius, no, I am not. But logic says that the combined factors of new entrants to the job market and the increased minimum wage mean that the same dollars for new hires will cover fewer people.
Were I hiring people at minimum wage, I’d be looking at hiring one less — and being a bit more selective at who I hire, knowing that I’d be paying them more than before and expecting a bit more out of them for my money. I just ran the numbers, and it works fairly well — what would cover eight minimum-wage workers before will now not quite cover seven.
Spread that around to all the places that hire minimum-wage workers, and you have them all looking at 12.5% fewer new hires — meaning the competition for the good workers willing to take those jobs a bit stiffer, and the better ones will go first.
And those who don’t get hired for those fewer jobs will be counted as “unemployed.” Again, as predicted by the opponents of the minimum-wage increase at the time.
I’ve worked for minimum wage. It sucked. But I don’t make that now — I make significantly more than that. And I do because I’ve made myself worth more than that to my employer. And my employer wants to keep me making money for them, so they’ve given me raises and bonuses and other rewards.
And all achieved without the government decreeing I needed special assistance or a higher rate of pay, or a union to negotiate on my behalf. However did I manage?
J.
“Let’s see… a bunch of high school and college graduates hit the job market…”
That was taken into account when they made the prediction that it would rise to 5.1%. It rose five times faster than expect. So you can’t blame this on students, the minimum wage, or any other effect that been known for a while. This is because of a seriously bad economy.
“It sums up the Democrats’ refusal to allow domestic oil drilling and new refineries quite well.
Which, of course, I’m certain has absolutely nothing to do with the current oil prices…”
Nope. It doesn’t. The United states can’t increase global oil supply by enough to change the supply and demand equation. However, the American dollar being in the shitter does have a direct effect on the price of oil. Additionally, the dollar is low because of policy by this administration. They have been trying to artificially inflate a sagging economy with easy borrowing, and now it has come back to bite them on the ass.
“Oliver tried a flat out-and-out denial, with no attempt to explain his statement other than “no” and a cheap phrase,”
That’s all you deserve, Jay Tea. You don’t deserve to be treated with respect, because you have shown too often that when your opponent takes the time to give you a well-researched argument, you will run.
“so I turned his cliche’ back on him with another aspect of the Democrats’ mismanagement of the economy.”
The Democrats? The Republicans are still in the White House and the Democrats don’t have a large enough majority to control the economy, so if this is a problem because of mismanagement, then you have to blame the Republicans.
“Mobius, no, I am not. But logic says that the combined factors of new entrants to the job market and the increased minimum wage mean that the same dollars for new hires will cover fewer people.”
Except the minimum wage increase means an increase in disposable income for a lot more people. This should stimulate the economy and increase the demand for minimum wage jobs.
However, this still doesn’t address the key issue: The Unemployment Rate grew at a rate 5 times greater than experts predicted. They used all the same factors you are trying to pawn this on.
“And all achieved without the government decreeing I needed special assistance or a higher rate of pay, or a union to negotiate on my behalf. However did I manage?”
If there weren’t unions, minimum wage, etc., you wouldn’t be earning what you make now.
Why does nobody just say “It’s a recession”?
CSS: That’s all you deserve, Jay Tea. You don’t deserve to be treated with respect, because you have shown too often that when your opponent takes the time to give you a well-researched argument, you will run.
Well said. (And I mean that in several ways.)
Well, bryan, because “recession” has a very specific definition by economists, and it ain’t happened yet. If you prefer, call it a “curdlebleen” and talk about how awful curdlebleens are, but it ain’t officially a recession until we experience two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
Unless, of course, you’re choosing to redefine “recession” as “periods of slowed but still positive growth” to suit your agenda. But it would be more truthful to simply say that “we’re in a curdlebleen, which I define as two or more quarters of declining but still positive GDP, and it is bad, and I blame Bush for that.”
Nah. Too close to reality. Only room for “reality-based” derivations, not reality itself. It’ll never fly.
J.
“Well, bryan, because “recession” has a very specific definition by economists…”
I doubt Bryan is an economist, nor are most Americans. While you score points for being technically accurate (the best kind of accurate). However, if you think your argument is going to win political points, guess again.
The economy is in the shitter, and it doesn’t matter what it is called, the people know it isn’t good.
“Well, bryan, because “recession” has a very specific definition by economists, and it ain’t happened yet. If you prefer, call it a “curdlebleen” and talk about how awful curdlebleens are, but it ain’t officially a recession until we experience two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.”
Is the GDP growing due to the rising cost of oil? If GDP growth is below the rate of inflation, then in real dollars it is shrinking. While not technically a recession, it is, in effect, a recession.
J.
While you score points for being technically accurate (the best kind of accurate). However, if you think your argument is going to win political points, guess again.
IOW, you are right, but the argument you make * isn’t going to convince anyone of that.
Add “or the way in which you are making it” at the * and you’ve got the point I’ve tried to make on occasion.
“Add “or the way in which you are making it” at the * and you’ve got the point I’ve tried to make on occasion.”
When it comes to Jay Tea, no argument you can make will convince him, because he is too dumb to learn. You have to know that by now.
“‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,’ it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’”
Wow, Jay Tea, that’s stupid even by your standards. Completely ignoring all points, on the other hand, if you M.O. This is why people insult you. And I’m not the only on who does.
When it comes to Jay Tea, no argument you can make will convince him, because he is too dumb to learn. You have to know that by now.
Yes. And he’s not the only one I’ve learned that about. (Although there are actually some that I’ve thought that about who have surprised me.)