McCain’s Base Problem
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John McCain has been the nominee of his party for over a month now. He has no active opposition, no figure on his side of the aisle contesting him for leadership of the Republican party and the conservative movement.
And yet, Republicans are still voting against him. In Indiana McCain pulled in 77% of the vote, and he made an even worse showing with 73% in North Carolina. Even more troubling for McCain is that Huckabee is the leading protest vote. That’s the religious right vote, the anti-choice crowd and the bedrock of President Bush’s re-election victory.
In 2004 the GOP got the vote out by riling up the religious right and wooing the moderate middle. Post-Katrina and post-Iraq they have lost the middle. The press image of McCain as a maverick helps them with the middle, but they’ve still lost it. The religious right is mostly disgusted with the GOP – they haven’t kept up their end of the bargain. The religious right lined up behind the GOP to ban abortion, negate gay rights, and violate the separation of church and state. In exchange for that, the religious right was okay with allowing the business class to take their pound of flesh. But the GOP had the House, Senate, and White House and while they did enough at the edges of those issues they did not remake America into a theocracy.
John McCain does not inspire these people. Ambivalent at best about his faith, he is not the “God warrior” Bush pretends to be. He is very much the Bob Dole candidate. McCain is the “his turn” guy and in Obama he is going up against the first Democratic candidate in a long while who has the base of voters who are really for their guy.
The religious right is not going to move Democratic, but like in 2006 they are probably going to stay home while the Democratic base is poised to make the turnout in 2004 seem like training camp. The religious right’s relationship with the GOP isn’t just yet a divorce, but Mommy and Daddy are for sure on a break.
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Please tell me that image isn’t from a McCain Rally.
If Hillary wre to drop out now, what percentage would Obama get in, say WV? Almost all those Huckabee votes in NC were cast by people who will vote for McCaint in November.
Didja see Alan Keyes picked up 3% in Indiana?
Funny sad or funny ha ha?
Almost all those Huckabee votes in NC were cast by people who will vote for McCaint in November.
I wouldn’t be so sure. They might stay home.
He wasn’t on either ballot (I saw both) — I doubt this claim is accurate.
“Almost all those Huckabee votes in NC were cast by people who will vote for McCaint in November.”
Almost all is not all. Even if only one in ten of those protest voters were to give the 2008 vote a pass, it would make winning North Carolina very difficult for McCain. A state that Bush won with relative ease becomes one McCain is struggling to win. That’s pretty much game over for McCain.
Republicans aren’t voting in Republican primaries anymore. They’ve all moved on to Operation Chaos.
He wasn’t on either ballot (I saw both) — I doubt this claim is accurate.
My bad, it was NC.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914/#NC
North Carolina Back to top
Democrats | Polls | County Results
Candidate Votes % of votes Delegates won
Obama 890,723 56% 63
Clinton 658,009 42% 47
No Preference 22,722 1%
99% of precincts reporting
Republicans | Polls | County Results
Candidate Votes % of votes Delegates won
McCain 381,147 74% 0
Huckabee 62,888 12% 0
Paul 40,277 8% 0
No Preference 20,306 4%
Keyes 13,591 3%
99% of precincts reporting
Please tell me that image isn’t from a McCain Rally.
The image is named imgjesuscamp.jpg, so I suspect not.
No Preference 20,306 4%
Keyes 13,591 3%
Keyes actually finished behind “Aw-hell-who-cares”?
the picture is from Jesus Camp.
I’m pretty sure the people in that photo aren’t McCain’s base. Mostly because none of them are 18 and thus would be committing voter fraud should they cast a ballot.
No, that’s Huckabee’s base.
Keyes actually finished behind “Aw-hell-who-cares”?
HA!
“Republicans aren’t voting in Republican primaries anymore. They’ve all moved on to Operation Chaos.”
Not true. Clinton earned the same percent from the Republicans as they did from the population in total. So no, Operations Chaos was not a success.
… according to exit polls. And Operation Chaos operatives CERTAINLY wouldn’t lie to exit pollsters, would they?
Would they?
P.S. I’m actually not a fan of Operation Chaos, don’t think it’s all that kosher, and wish Rush wasn’t doing it. Just like I was against Democratics trying to sway the primaries in 2000 and 2004.
P.S. I’m actually not a fan of Operation Chaos, don’t think it’s all that kosher, and wish Rush wasn’t doing it. Just like I was against Democratics trying to sway the primaries in 2000 and 2004</b..
You mean the Dems tried to mess up the Republican primary race, even though Bush was running for re-election?
Seriously, what?
I reject and denounce the last 2 words in my previous sentence!
“…while the Democratic base is poised to make the turnout in 2004 seem like training camp.”
That’s the thought. The reality is that there is an inverse proportion of the %of Dems in a precinct vs the number of voting machines & ballots in that precinct.
Get ready folks…
And Operation Chaos operatives CERTAINLY wouldn’t lie to exit pollsters, would they?
Would they?
Of course not. They would no more lie to pollsters than Rush would lie to his listeners.
Ummmm…. yeah.
GOD, he’s such a douche.
MAKE UP OUR MINDS, already. Millions of dittoheads are walking around bumping into things right now.
OW:
the picture is from Jesus Camp.
I thought is was Greggie, and Douggie, and all the other “Hitler Youth.”
“… according to exit polls. And Operation Chaos operatives CERTAINLY wouldn’t lie to exit pollsters, would they?
Would they?”
So your evidence that it worked is… “It’s possible that the evidence that it didn’t work is wrong.”
Wow. … Just wow.
So your evidence that it worked is… “It’s possible that the evidence that it didn’t work is wrong.”
Yeah, just like Teh Surge.