’)Slate’s Tim Noah issues a challenge to journalists.
Here’s a rule I would like every political reporter, campaign official, TV talking head, and politician in the United States to follow. Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, you must describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale.
??
Hillary wins Indiana big, she ties in NC, she wins WV, KY, PR big. SHe ties the others: MT, SD, OR which are low-population states. This will probably give her the lead in popular vote. The DNC seats FL and MI by some formula that keeps the results of the primaries.
She goes into the superdelegates and says:
1. I won all the big states, except for Obama’s home state.
2. I won the popular vote
3. I have the momentum: My support is growing, Obama’s has been shrinking for months.
4. I own the Democratic Party base, including the biggest minority, Hispanics, our biggest voting bloc, women, working-class voters, and older voters.
5. I have the most experience and toughness according to the polls
6. I don’t have the race card or the Rev Wright or the Rezko case or the Ayers issue or the patriotism card to worry about
7. I am doing better against McCain nationwide
8. I am doing better in key swing states like OH and FL and PA
9 With Hispanic support, I can compete well in TX, AZ, CO, NM, and OK.
10. I have the win streak right now.
He said to NOT make it sound like a fairy tale, ’stone.
I know it’s difficult for you.
Ooh, I got one. Obama’s walking under a palm tree and gets conked on the head with a coconut and gets amnesia.
Hmm. No, that one has too many racial overtones.
I got another one, though: The Rezko trial turns up testimony that says that a certain Illinois State Senator took 20k in donation money from Rezko in exchange for kickbacks and swinging business deals his way from a couple state boards…
Oh, wait: Obama RETURNED 20k in donation money from Rezko, didn’t he?
Wait til Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity get ahold of this one!!
Wellstone, you’re a joke.
Wellstone, you’re a joke.
Jokes are, you know, funny.
Hmm. No, that one has too many racial overtones.
Gilligan’s Island plot lines have racial overtones?
I have the win streak right now.
I can tell you that if I were an undecided superdeligate, and Hillary used that to try to convince me, I would be in for Obama. That use of the Gambler’s Fallacy would just be laughable.
1. I won all the big states, except for Obama’s home state.
All those other states don’t count. Just the big ones.
2. I won the popular vote
As long as you include the votes that weren’t supposed to count. Oh, and if you don’t count the caucus votes, ‘cuz they’re just weird.
4. I own the Democratic Party
heheh, that’s what I’m really saying.
5. I have the most experience and toughness according to the polls
Which I don’t really look at unless it’s beneficial. Experience= I know where everything is in the White House.
6. I don’t have the race card or the Rev Wright or the Rezko case or the Ayers issue or the patriotism card to worry about
I play the race card when it suits me, and I have Whitewater, Monica, Gennifer Flowers and that horse-faced bitch instead.
7. I am doing better against McCain nationwide
By strong single digits.
8. I am doing better in key swing states like OH and FL and PA
Which typically vote Republican no matter what.
Zython,
I think that would actually be Hillary’s strongest argument. All of Obama’s wins came before Wright and Bitter-gate. Do you think South Carolina would vote the same way were they to do it all over again knowing what they know now? Mississippi? Virginia? I don’t.
I rest my case. And I think whatever your judgment or evaluation of mine and her arguments, they certainly merit consideration in maybe the most important Election in many .many years.
Tim Noah is a “stop-the-count” hack.
Bitter-gate
I didn’t know there was a Bittergate hotel. Where can I make reservations.
Do you think South Carolina would vote the same way were they to do it all over again knowing what they know now? Mississippi? Virginia? I don’t.
I do, because I don’t believe that Americans are innately stupid, unlike you.
Not only do I think MI, VA and SC would vote the same way, I think the margin for Obama would be greater.
Zython: “I do, because I don’t believe that Americans are innately stupid, unlike you.”
Actually, FWIW, I disagree with you, Zython. I think that Americans are idiots. And this belief makes me really unhappy. How else do you explain Bush’s re-election in 2004, or that the Rev. Wright bullshit and flag pin “issue” have hurt Obama? Or that evolutionary theory is so distrusted by so many Americans? Or that millions of people don’t believe in global warming despite the preponderance of scientific research indicating otherwise?
People are idiots. I just hope that they luck into the right choice in this presidential race.
Wellstone: And I think whatever your judgment or evaluation of mine and her arguments, they certainly merit consideration in maybe the most important Election in many .many years.
And just what consideration have you demonstrated towards anything non-Hillary?
mambochicken: Or that evolutionary theory is so distrusted by so many Americans? Or that millions of people don’t believe in global warming despite the preponderance of scientific research indicating otherwise?
I’m not sure that’s true. (Without taking the time to find links to them, of course) I think that there is evidence to show that most Americans do believe global warming is a problem and evolution is valid science. They just aren’t the ones making the noise and getting headlines.
It’s like something I did see just the other day. It’s reported that 80% of people are opposed to flag burning. Yikes! But when you really drill into the poll question asked? Turns less than half of them are very or strongly concerned, and less than 12% say it would affect their vote. Twelve may still be a notable number, but it’s a far way from 80, or even most.
Actually, people are very distrusting of evolutionary theory
Gross.
Dammit, let’s try that again…
What Americans think of evolution
WELSTONE!
You said this, “Hillary wins Indiana big, she ties in NC…”
Now is your last chance to give us numbers. How big is big? How close would be a tie? How big does Obama have to in North Carolina before you admit he’s won? How close does he have to come in Indiana before you admit it’s over?
This is your last chance to seem rational. Give us real numbers and stick with your convictions.
Is there any evidence that Wright and “Bittergate” have had any effect on people who might actually have voted for Obama, or is it a phenomenon exclusive to people who were already publically in the tank for McCain or Hillary?
How big is big?
Clinton 52% Obama 49%
How close would be a tie?
Obama 65% Clinton 30%
I mean, that’s what it’s been so far, no?
Wellstone is so far gone it’s despicable.
I called PA for Hillary double digits, and I came within .4%
I think huge for Hillary in Indiana, where she’s been outspent in most of the media markets would be anything over 6 points. I predict an 8-point win, 52-44.
I think a tie is within the margin of election error, 3%. Most state election systems function well up to about about a 3% margin, where human error, machine and method differences, local partisan effects, weather, systems overload and failures, and optical-machine vs. paper ballots muddy things up.
NC, where the Obama campaign has been desperately trying to lower expectations because the bar has been set really high for them, would be a victory for Hillary if she can get to Margin of Error plus 2% difference, say a loss of only 52-47%. Remember the Obama campaign has pulled out all the stops in both states, spending a lot of cash in media buys and scheduling event after event this weeknd and today for Obama, Michelle, even the daughters all over the state.
Hillary has sensed a real chance to put Obama away here, and she has dialed up her effort from top to bottom as well.
I watched the Jefferson-Jackson addresses in both states over the weekend and both looked great. I gave the edge to Hillary, though, because I’m a Hillary guy!
6 points is huge? Wow, talk about lowered expectations.
So you’re saying a loss of 52-47% would be a tie.
You realize that in primaries, there is no margin of error. Don’t you?
“Hillary has sensed a real chance to put Obama away here, and she has dialed up her effort from top to bottom as well.”
Usually, someone has to be, you know, in the lead to have a chance to “put someone away”. Jus’ sayin’.
Waiting for the post-primary spin: Well, Hillary lost by 6 points, but she should have lost by 8 points so the delegates should go to Hillary.
Wellstone: I gave the edge to Hillary, though, because I’m a Hillary guy!
Which sums up your position as you’ve shown it here quite nicely, actually. You’re not for Hillary because of any policy or stance or position she has. You’re for Hillary because you’re for Hillary. QED.
RCP Average for NC; Obama by 7.
Indina: Clinton by 5.3.
HUGE!
I’m going to hold you to that, Wellstone. If Obaba wins by more than 3% in North Carolina or loses by less than 8% in Indiana, you should admit it is over for Hillary.
I called PA for Hillary double digits, and I came within .4% . . .
Yo, Wellstone–
I checked http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us and found the following info:
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,260,937 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,046,822 45.4%
The difference is 9.278%, which is about .25 percent short of being able even to round up to double digits.
So Wellstone…
She barely won Indiana and lost big in North Carolina. Now will you admit she’d finished?
Wellstone? Hello? Wellstone? (Is this thing on?) Hello?