Pennsylvania Prediction Thread

9:49 pm EST April 19th, 2008 | News | 19 Comments

I say Clinton wins by 14%. Her flacks will push the idea that something major happened when in fact the dynamics of the PA race stayed the same thanks to the Clinton-McCain-Media tagteam vs. Obama. The day after the primary Obama will still have more delegates, more states, and more overall votes.

At the end of the day the only way Sen. Clinton can now win the nomination is to steal it. But I think she’ll have a healthy double-digit win in PA.

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19 Responses to “Pennsylvania Prediction Thread”

  1. Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle says:
    April 19, 2008 at 10:42 pm

    Oliver:
    Are you serious? There ain’t no way Hillary is winning by 14%. Obama drew 40,000 in Philly Friday night. I’ve canvassed for him. You wouldn’t believe the response I’ve gotten while doing it. Hillary might win, but if she does, there is no way she is winning by that much. No way, no how.

  2. Oliver Willis says:
    April 19, 2008 at 10:53 pm

    Rally numbers are not a good yardstick. Maybe I’m wrong but I think she’ll win by double digits.

  3. Jed says:
    April 20, 2008 at 1:40 am

    i completely agree. i’m not sure if it’ll be 14%. it could be 13.98%

    but that’s close enough.

  4. buma says:
    April 20, 2008 at 7:39 am

    My prediction is she wins by half that, under 7 percent, this from the perspective of an Obama supporter in Philadelphia. My wife and I will cancel each other’s vote on Tuesday but will have solidarity in November.

  5. jr says:
    April 20, 2008 at 8:44 am

    no matter what happens the Marshites will continue to write hit pieces on Obama

  6. Caged Lion says:
    April 20, 2008 at 10:39 am

    I agree with Mr. Willis. From what I have seen, the media has completely been spinning events as Obama coming withing single digits or tied. They are intentionally being overoptimistic so that the real margin can be spun as an Obama setback.

    I think he will lose by 10-15 pts.

  7. somejackass says:
    April 20, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    Oh come on, 14% ? You’re just doing your part to lower the bar. Personally, I think there is a shot of a reverse New Hampshire if you will, and Obama getting a (very slim) victory in PA, but I’d put the even money spread at 8%

  8. anotherbozo says:
    April 20, 2008 at 3:05 pm

    Chris Matthews agrees, not to be insulting, OW. He says Hillary will act as though the contest is just starting and try to drown out statistical probabilities with triumphalist propaganda.

    Matthews thinks he’s a PA insider, knows the state intimately, etc.

    On a related note, try Bob Herbert’s last column in the Times. With Hillary hanging on till the bitter end he thinks the Dems have found the way to lose the gimme election.

  9. Joyful Alternative says:
    April 20, 2008 at 3:26 pm

    Keep in mind that Chris Matthews hasn’t lived in Philly since he was in high school. A few things have changed over 40 years.

  10. Applesauce » Pennsylvania predictions says:
    April 20, 2008 at 6:13 pm

    [...] Guesses in Clinton’s favor, randomly selected, are found HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE. [...]

  11. Quaker in a Basement says:
    April 20, 2008 at 10:33 pm

    “Obama will still have more delegates,”

    That’s important.

    “more states,”

    That’s NOT important.

    “and more overall votes.”

    Also NOT important. The rules say the candidate with the delegates wins. Only the Clinton campaign cares about anything else because they’re grasping for some way to make a case to the superdelegates.

    Delegate count is the only total that matters.

  12. Red says:
    April 21, 2008 at 9:12 am

    Actually, overall votes do matter, because the TOTAL delegate count is the only total that actually counts. And she could make a legitimate case if she won the popular vote. But with neither pledged delegates or the popular vote, she has nothing.

  13. Jay says:
    April 21, 2008 at 9:15 am

    Still going to vote for her Oliver if she still somehow manages to wrangle the nomination away from Obama?

  14. Duros62 says:
    April 21, 2008 at 11:13 am

    I think your spread is high, Ollie. Clinton by 4%, but she will be CRUSHED in North Carolina.

    And Jay, the answer is yes. As Obama said yesterday, either democrat is better than John McCain. And all three are better than George Bush.

  15. Kevin says:
    April 21, 2008 at 5:30 pm

    I don’t think she’ll break the double digits, though she should have… I’m betting on 9%… not higher than 11% for sure.

  16. Oliver Willis says:
    April 21, 2008 at 6:07 pm

    If she’s the nominee that means she would have stolen the nomination and as I indicated previously I would not vote for her. I vote in Maryland though, so its not like it hurts. (And I just wouldn’t vote, not vote for Out Of Touch John McCain)

  17. Sean D. Martin says:
    April 21, 2008 at 10:12 pm

    I won’t vote for her. I would have, but her behavior and comments these past few months have demonstrated to me that she should not be president. And I refuse to vote FOR someone I would not want to see as president.

    So who ever is nominated, I’ll vote for Obama. If not nominated his chances of winning might be slight (alright, the way things work, non existent) but I’ll make it known with my vote that there is at least one who believes he would be the best for the job.

  18. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    April 21, 2008 at 11:06 pm

    I’m predicting a 5% to 9% win. Large enough to call it a win, but not large enough to move the delegate count.

  19. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    April 22, 2008 at 9:26 pm

    “I’m predicting a 5% to 9% win. Large enough to call it a win, but not large enough to move the delegate count.”

    So far it is looking good.