photo credit: My Hobo Soul
So in the course of following this stuff, its a must for people like myself to try and make assesments of things based on facts and not my emotions. I’m not saying I’m absolved of that, but I think I do a better job than… some. In the case of Democratic superdelegates, I think I’m on solid ground predicting that enough of them will break to Sen. Obama in order for him to get the nomination (before the convention). One school of thought says that they’re very cautious, and as a result open to Sen. Clinton’s “wait and see” argument through which she plans to convince them that she’s more electable because of her wins in the larger states. Putting aside that I think this argument is absurd, I think this argument won’t work. The overwhelming narrative has rejected the Clinton slice-and-dice argument.
While the short term story shows dips and valleys for her campaign, the big picture is that she has lost so far to a better prepared opponent. The superdelegates are mostly politicians with their seats on the line, and as such they will not want to go against the grain. I expect at least one more friendly cycle for Sen. Clinton if she wins Pennsylvania (something she should win by at least 20 points), but after that and this extended period of intra-party squabbling, you’re going to see an increased drumbeat for the choice of a nominee and preparation for the convention and the months after that. While I’m sure Sen. Clinton will soldier on Mike Huckabee style, at some point soon the thing will be done and the healing initiated.
The Clinton campaign has certainly disappointed me, but not to the extent that I would ever vote for a Republican. If she were to win the nomination fairly, I and the vast majority of Obama supporters would have no problem strongly supporting her. And despite the mewling on the other side, I’m guessing a clear majority of Sen. Clinton’s supporters won’t have any issues in electing Sen. Obama. Yeah, you’ll have some disgruntled ninny say they’ll vote for McCain if Clinton isn’t the nominee, but you can’t account for all varieties of brain damage.
Predictions:
Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee before the convention.
Barack Obama will be the general election frontrunner.
Barack Obama will win the election.
Redskins will win the Super Bowl. (if you’re shooting for the moon, why not go all the way)
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The Clinton campaigns obvious dismay and inability to deal with the loss in Iowa was a tell tale sign of trouble to come. I think it was this statement the made it perfectly clear that they did not know what they had run up against.
Recall those words are from a article written by Penn AFTER the Super Tuesday standstill. The upstart junior Senator from Illinois fought the much vaunted Clinton machine to a virtual tie. Clinton had no real Plan B for after Super Tuesday.
As good as they have historically been at spinning the MSM it is quite apparent to me that Obama got in their head early, and regardless of what the conventional wisdom is he continues to show that he is cool and level headed in even the most pressing situation. Look at his media blitz over the Reverend Wright situation. The man is tough as nails and shows no fear in the face of some pretty daunting criticism.
The fact that Obama rejected Wright’s words but did not disavow him personally shows you the real difference in character and leadership between the two candidates. Obama does not throw people under the bus. Period.
I agree with most of your predictions. But as a Giants fan I’m going to savior that Super Bowl victory for awhile. The Giants won a Super Bowl without Parcells, but Parcells has never won a Super Bowl without Belichick being on his staff. A little poetic justice that the Giants beat a Belichick team.
(Its late and I’m tired so if you find too many typos blame it on Ferraro. I think she’s still boo hooing over all those vicious racists attacking her.)
Sorry, OW, but the Jets are taking the Lombardi this year. (Talk about shooting for the moon!)
I was with you until that Redskins bit. Iggles, baby, Iggles!
Obama needs Clinton, Clinton needs Obama
If Clinton and Obama want to behave responsibly to make sure one of them actually makes it to the White House, they both need to stop flinging dirt at each other. Here’s the way to make that happen:
Both publicly pledge that if are nominated for President, the other candidate will be their first choice for the Vice Presidential spot.
This immediately puts a stop to personal attacks or calling their rival’s ability into question – you don’t dis you choice for second-in-command.
They can and should debate the issues and clarify their differences. But they are now free to direct their shared anger and outrage where it belongs, at Bush’s policies, and at the policies of the man endorsed by Bush.
For either Obama or Clinton to win his fall, he or she needs to lead a unified party. And this requires the enthusiastic support of the other.
Clinton needs Obama, Obama needs Clilnton. That’s just the way it is.
Obama-Clinton, Clinton-Obama – either “dream team” is McCain’s worst nightmare. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can make that nightmare a reality for him now.
One prediction you forgot, Oliver: Mark Penn saying those magic words in February 2009: “Will you have fries with that?” Okay not that bad, he can make 2 million off of the book that he will write blaming others for his feloniously incompetent hackery.
Good analysis, though I do have a couple of problems with it. Yes, the math and, really, momentum, is all in favor of Obama. But Obama can’t lose PA by 20 and not face a crack in the wall. He has already set the bar with the ‘10 points’ statement a couple of days ago, and should be able to do that. With 10 (or less) in PA, he rolls on. 20 would just look bad, and besides, it shouldn’t (and needn’t) happen.
Second, I’m picking the Bills. It’s no more ridiculous than the Skins.
Third, the early May primaries (NC and IN) are cleanup time. I have no notion of how IN is going, or how it leans, but Obama is looking very good in NC. NC Democrats have been TERRIBLE for years at running away from the national party; in 2004, typically, Kerry could hardly find enough NC Democratic candidates to share a stage with him. Candidates this year can’t wait for Obama … the race for the nomination for governor has long settled into a 2 person showdown between two typical moderately progressive, pro-business but not insane candidates. Richard Moore, who’s been State Treasurer among other things, came out some time ago for Obama. Nominal expectations were that Beverley Perdue would lean to Hillary, but she recently endorsed Obama as well, obviously wanting to not let Moore share that stage by himself, and also I would guess seeing the polling. Obama will win NC. NC is, in turn, maybe 1/2 again bigger than IN, so May 6 (I think, or right around then) should be a good day for him, and he will at least lose no ground. Those are the last two of any real size, and if Obama has a reasonable lead, really any lead at all, it should be over, and super-D’s (being politicians) will put a stake in it.
Nancy Pelosi has been quoted twice now as saying that the super delegates should not overturn the elected delegates. She is openly and publicly making a strong case for the super delegates to break to Obama before the convention.
I do not believe that she is doing this all on her own.She is both a major player and a woman and is therefore the best person for the party leadership to send out to gradually break the news that Clinton has lost.
I expect to see other party leaders say they agree with Nancy while working into the conversation that they agree with this strong FEMALE party leader.
Not sure if Obama needs HillBillary as much as she needs him. She plays politics the way the Republicans play. And that might help. But it will also hurt him. I tried using an old Oasis song to compare the three. http://angryafrican.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/dont-look-back-in-anger-a-cover-by-the-mac-and-hillary-show/
But I guess you are right. Even if she wins – no choice but vote for her. Look at the alternative. 100 years of war…
Obama does not want Hillary. Obama is in another class, how can he inspire change and a new way with old Hillary there. This race is over, Obama will be about 250 short of the goal and he will have the superdelegates he needs to put him over the top. That is why Hillary is trying to stop supers from committing. Obama will pick a VP that will solidify the ticket. We just have to hope that bush’s Secret Service does its job between now and then.